This is a topic that Footballguys has covered in year's past, and it is highly useful for the final few weeks of the regular season.
This year is wacky with how the NFC conference playoffs are going, so I thought I'd get the ball rolling on this, with a focus on which teams are most incentivized to play hard this weekend.
To be clear - there is TEAM motivation (such as a team must win to stay relevant for the playoffs), then there is INDIVIDUAL motivation (such as getting to a season- or career-long milestone).
Note - Here are a few helpful links to evaluate playoff possibilities:
FiveThirtyEight NFL Predictions
Something to consider: Eleven (11) teams have their final home game of 2019 in Week 16: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami, New York Jets, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Tennessee and Washington
Here's are some observations going into Week 16 from a TEAM motivation perspective.
THE NFC
- Teams that have Clinched a Playoff Berth (4): New Orleans, San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay
- Teams in the Hunt (4): Minnesota, Dallas, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Rams
- Teams Eliminated (8): Chicago, Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Detroit, Atlanta, NY Giants
NFC EAST
Dallas and Philadelphia - It all comes down to Sunday - well, mostly. Both the Eagles and the Cowboys secured wins in Week 15, boosting their records to a semi-respectable 7-7 as they both enter the final two weeks tied atop the NFC East. Dallas now heads to Lincoln Financial Field where a win will secure the NFC East for the Cowboys, but a loss gives the Eagles the inside track for the division crown. Philadelphia needs to win out including a trip to visit the Giants in Week 17, else a loss would leave the door open for Dallas to win over Washington and take the division from the Eagles at 8-8 due to a better NFC East record. The only scenario that involves either of these teams resting players in Week 17 lies with a Dallas win over the Eagles on Sunday. If the Cowboys win they lock up the NFC East and will host either Seattle or San Francisco in two weeks, so Dallas may view Week 17 as a week to rest key players to get them as healthy as possible for the postseason.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay - The Packers are in a great spot with two weeks left, as they are presently in the second seed slot in the NFC at 11-3, have locked up a playoff berth and have a strong chance (91%) at winning the NFC North. Even with all of that good news, Week 16 presents its own set of problems as the Packers must head to Minnesota for an NFC North showdown with the 10-4 Vikings. Focusing solely on the division, Minnesota's only chance at the title is two wins and two losses by the Packers, so a victory on Sunday for Green Bay locks up the division - but there are no guarantees of securing that coveted bye week.
Minnesota - The 10-4 Vikings continue to look strong, and they only need one more win or a loss by the Rams to lock up a playoff spot. Those are all good things to know, but the focus for Minnesota in Week 16 is beating Green Bay at home. A win over the Packers puts both teams at 11-4, but Green Bay still would hold the edge for the NFC North title with a better divisional record. Minnesota's only path to the divisional title (and a potential higher seed than sixth) is to finish the season with a victory over Chicago and also have the Packers lose in Detroit to finish the regular season. Only then would the Vikings win the NFC North at 12-4 and host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. The only outcome in Week 16 that may have the Vikings resting players in Week 17 would be Green Bay beating the Vikings and the Rams losing to San Francisco. That locks the Vikings into the second Wild Card spot but no higher, so expect Dalvin Cook and company to rest players in Week 17 if the Vikings and Rams both lose in Week 16.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans - The Saints are the NFC South champions and they rebounded well with a big win over the Colts on Monday Night Football after a tough loss to the 49ers in Week 14. New Orleans can finish as any of the top three seeds in the NFC.
NFC WEST
San Francisco and Seattle - The upset of the 49ers by Atlanta in Week 15 shook up the division and the conference seeding with just two weeks to play. San Francisco falls back to the tough-luck Wild Card spot and the fifth seed in the NFC with the loss that ties the 49ers with Seattle at 11-3, but the Seahawks own the tiebreaker for now with a head-to-head win over San Francisco 27-24 in an epic Week 10 clash. Both teams are heading to a Week 17 showdown in Seattle where the winner will win the NFC West and likely secure at least a top-two seed and a bye for the playoffs, if not the #1 spot overall in the conference. Both San Francisco (at the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday) and Seattle (hosting Arizona) are favored to win, setting up that big season finale of two 12-3 teams. The Week 17 loser will travel to the NFC East winner on Wild Card Weekend, so it goes without saying that all 49ers and Seahawks players will be playing as hard as they can through their season finale.
LA Rams - The defending NFC Conference Champions are barely still alive for a playoff spot, which would only be as a sixth seed behind both the Seahawks and 49ers in the highly competitive NFC West. The Rams must win out, which starts with a tough trip to San Francisco this week before the season finale at home against Arizona. Assuming two wins, Minnesota would have to lose two contests for the Rams to sneak in as the final playoff team. The Vikings have a tough matchup this week (home against Green Bay), but even if the Packers win and two wins are projected for the Rams, Los Angeles has just a 30% probability of securing that final Wild Card spot. The reason for such long odds? Chicago would have to go to Minnesota and upset the Vikings, which would be a big upset even if the Bears were still alive for the playoffs. A loss this week to the 49ers eliminates the Rams and makes any fantasy lineups in Week 17 a challenge for anyone needing to rely on any Rams players to perform at peak levels.
NFC Top 3 Seeding
Presently there are four teams with 11-3 records: San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans, and Green Bay. Given that all of these teams are (A) pushing for a playoff bye and (B) very good teams, the odds are extremely likely that the #1 seed in the NFC will have a 13-3 record. First, let's take a look at what happens with two teams tied at 13-3, with one of them being the NFC West champion:
San Francisco and New Orleans - San Francisco gets the top spot due to their head-to-head win over the Saints.
San Francisco and Green Bay - San Francisco also gets the first seed due to their head-to-head win over the Packers.
Seattle and New Orleans - Seattle has a better conference record, so the Seahawks are the top seed with the Saints as the second seed.
Seattle and Green Bay - Seattle finishes first over the Packers due to their common opponents' records across four teams (Seattle is 4-0 against San Francisco, Philadelphia, Carolina, and Minnesota, while Green Bay is 2-2 against those same teams).
Since Seattle and San Francisco square off against each other in the season finale, only three of these teams can finish at 13-3. Assuming that there are no ties, here is how the Top 3 seeds would break down if these three teams finish at 13-3:
Seattle, New Orleans, and Green Bay - New Orleans falls to the third seed because of three conference losses, and Seattle gets the top spot due to their 4-0 record against common opponents with the Packers (who are 2-2 against the 49ers, Eagles, Panthers, and Vikings this season).
San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay - The 49ers earn the top spot here due to head-to-head wins over both the Saints and Packers. Green Bay would finish as the second seed due to a better conference record than the Saints, who have three losses in the NFC.
The two biggest games left in the NFC amongst the Top 5 teams (adding in the 10-4 Vikings) are the Week 16 Packers-Vikings matchup along with what should be an epic finale between Seattle and San Francisco. New Orleans is pulling for Minnesota on Monday Night Football against Green Bay, as the Saints lose tiebreakers with the Packers in a race for the second seed. Both Seattle and San Francisco would prefer that Green Bay prevails on Monday as the 49ers have a win over the Packers and Seattle's loss to New Orleans can be neutralized in a three-way tie with the Packers at 13-3.
The AFC playoff picture and team motivations are still rather complicated with two weeks left to play:
THE AFC
- Teams that have Clinched a Playoff Berth (4): Baltimore, Kansas City, New England, Buffalo
- Teams in the Hunt (6): Houston, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Oakland
- Teams Eliminated (7): Indianapolis, Denver, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, LA Chargers, Miami, NY Jets
AFC EAST
New England - The Patriots were given just what the doctor ordered in Week 15 - a win over Cincinnati. Topping the Bengals keeps the Patriots (11-3) atop the AFC East and a win next week at home against Buffalo secures the divisional crown yet again for New England. The Patriots are still targeting a bye week, and they are currently in the second spot in the AFC. Two wins at home against the Bills and Dolphins will lock that position up, but the top spot is well in hand for Baltimore. Only two losses by the Ravens along with two Patriot wins would flip that seeding in favor of New England, but the Patriots will look to finish the season strong at home and also keep Kansas City (10-4) off of the pace to take away that coveted bye week. A win on Sunday over Buffalo gives New England the second seed and a bye in almost every scenario (95% probability), but the Patriots should finish the season strong through Week 17.
Buffalo - The Bills locked up a playoff berth with their win in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football, and they are all but assured to be the fifth seed and a Wild Card entry in the AFC postseason tournament. While Buffalo still has an outside chance of winning the division, it would take a win by the Bills in Foxboro Sunday and another victory in Week 17 (hosting the Jets), but the tough part of that equation is hoping that Miami goes to New England and upsets the Patriots in the season finale. Stranger things have happened, but look for Buffalo to play hard against New England to send a message that the Bills will not be an easy out from the playoffs, but a loss to the Patriots may lead to the Bills resting a few players in what would then be a meaningless matchup with the Jets.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore - The 11-2 Ravens remain the Super Bowl favorite after their franchise-record 10th victory in a row last Thursday over the Jets. Now Baltimore looks to avenge on of their two losses this year with a trip to Cleveland. A win on Sunday locks the Ravens into the top seed in the AFC, securing the first spot in the postseason and gives Baltimore the option to rest key players in the season finale with Pittsburgh. Jim Harbaugh has a tough decision if the Steelers still need to win in the season finale, but look for Baltimore to do what is in their best interests to get to the Super Bowl rather than focusing on eliminating Pittsburgh from the postseason.
Pittsburgh - The Steelers still have the inside track on a playoff berth even after a tough loss to Buffalo at home in Week 15. A win against the Jets boosts their chances of getting the final Wild Card spot in the AFC as the sixth seed from 42% to 64%, and then the rooting interests are very strange for Steelers fans. If Baltimore wins over Cleveland in Week 15, the Ravens may not care at all about their season finale which is a help to Pittsburgh, as two season-ending wins gets the Steelers into the playoffs. The strange part of Pittsburgh's fate is that they can still get in by winning one game the rest of the way, and there is still a possibility of going 0-2 and still getting in the playoffs. The simplest path is winning over the Jets this week and hope that Tennessee loses to Houston in Week 17. No matter what, expect all of the Pittsburgh players to be going all out for the next two weeks.
Cleveland - The Browns are not out of it - although after losing in Arizona on Sunday and falling to 6-8, one could easily argue that Cleveland should not get another opportunity. Alas, the schedule is the schedule, and the Browns can make the postseason as the sixth and final AFC team and second Wild Card if the Browns win their next two games (vs. Baltimore and at Cincinnati) and gets a significant amount of help. First, Pittsburgh and Tennessee must lose out to fall to 8-8 each, creating a three-team tie with the Browns, and then the Colts have to also land at 8-8. In this instance, the Browns would top all three teams due to divisional records (Browns over Steelers) and due to a better conference record. If the Raiders join the party at 8-8, Cleveland still has the best tiebreaker advantage across those five teams. Of course, this all flies out the window if the Ravens beat Cleveland, which will also push the Browns to another losing season - but 2019 was progress for Cleveland, and no matter what it is safe to expect all Cleveland players to play hard through Week 17's finale in Cincinnati.
AFC South
Houston and Tennessee - The win by Houston over Tennessee in Week 15 almost locks up the AFC South for the Texans, as only two wins by Tennessee (vs. New Orleans, at Houston) plus a loss by Houston this week (at Tampa Bay) would flip the standings in the division towards the Titans. Even if that happens, the Texans have a 91% chance of locking up a Wild Card slot if Pittsburgh drops one of their two final games. Odds strongly favor the Texans locking up the AFC South and the Titans have to win out to have a realistic shot at a Wild Card berth. A Texans win this week or a Tennessee loss gives Houston the AFC South title. Houston owns head-to-head tiebreakers over both New England and Kansas City, so the Texans can move up to the third or second seed if Houston finishes at 12-4 and the Patriots, Chiefs or both stumble down the stretch.
AFC WEST
Kansas City - The Chiefs took care of business Sunday with a 23-3 win over division rival Denver, but Baltimore and New England also won, which limits the chances of a bye for Kansas City. The Chiefs need to win this week (at Chicago) and in Week (vs. the Los Angeles Chargers) to have a chance at a bye, and that would only come with a New England loss or two Baltimore losses. The most likely chance for any of those to happen in this week's matchup between Buffalo and the Patriots. If all three teams win this week, it is not out of the question for Andy Reid to rest some of his key players in a meaningless Week 17 contest with Kansas City slated for a home game in the Wild Card round the next weekend.
Oakland - The Raiders have all but blown their slim playoff hopes with the loss to Jacksonville. Honestly, if an Oakland team loses their final home game ever in Oakland - why even bother to calculate their slim chances? Yet, we will. The Raiders need all of the following AND some help - two Oakland wins, two losses by Tennessee and two losses by Pittsburgh - and even then, the probability for Oakland is just 33% to get that final Wild Card spot. A team that can really help Oakland is Indianapolis, as two wins in Weeks 16 (Carolina) and Week 17 (at Jacksonville) would put the Colts at 8-8 and help the Raiders with tiebreakers. Even with all of that plus a loss by Cleveland in Week 16 to the Ravens - no less than nine favorable outcomes - the chances for Oakland are still not 100% (close, at 94%, but not a lock). That's right, Oakland needs even more help to get past Pittsburgh at 8-8 and to beat the Steelers on tiebreaker #5 for multiple teams - Strength of Victory. This is the total winning percentage of all the teams that each franchise has beaten for the season - but I digress. Oakland needs a ton of help, but they want to finish as strong as possible to build for Las Vegas and 2020.
