This is a topic that Footballguys has covered in year's past, and it is highly useful for the final few weeks of the regular season.
This year is wacky with how the NFC conference playoffs are going, so I thought I'd get the ball rolling on this, with a focus on which teams are most incentivized to play hard this weekend.
To be clear - there is TEAM motivation (such as a team must win to stay relevant for the playoffs), then there is INDIVIDUAL motivation (such as getting to a season- or career-long milestone).
Note - Here are a few helpful links to evaluate playoff possibilities:
FiveThirtyEight NFL Predictions
Something to consider: Five teams have their final home game of 2019 in Week 15: Green Bay, Arizona, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans.
Here's are some observations going into Week 15 from a TEAM motivation perspective.
THE NFC
- Teams that have Clinched a Playoff Berth (1): New Orleans
- Teams in the Hunt (8): San Francisco, Seattle, Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, Philadelphia, LA Rams, Chicago
- Teams Eliminated (7): Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Detroit, Atlanta, NY Giants
NFC EAST
Dallas and Philadelphia - Both teams' playoff hopes are intertwined, as the Eagles and Cowboys are both 6-7 and one of these two franchises will make the postseason as the NFC East champion. The key game is in Week 16 as Dallas visits Philadelphia, with the winner likely the division winner. If the Eagles (at Washington) win this week and Dallas loses (hosting the Rams), the Eagles could secure the playoff spot before their season finale with the Giants, which would give Philadelphia a virtual bye before the Wild Card round. The Eagles have suffered a lot of injuries this year, so resting starters in Week 17 seems likely if they win their next two games and Dallas loses to Los Angeles this week. Dallas can also lock up the division with two wins in a row (Rams, at Eagles), giving the Cowboys the chance to rest starters Week 17 when they host Washington in what would be a meaningless contest.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay - The Packers are nearly a lock for the playoffs (93% chance), but the loss by the Saints to the 49ers last week now has given Green Bay the inside track for a first-round bye and a second-seed position for the NFC playoffs. Green Bay must win out to ensure that spot to go unchanged, but there are tough matchups on their schedule against teams fighting for their own playoff chances both this week (vs. Chicago) and in Week 16 (at Minnesota). That Week 16 contest with the Vikings looms huge, as Minnesota can steal the NFC North by winning out if Green Bay loses to Chicago this week. The Packers are expected to push hard for that by through Week 17 to keep their momentum right up until that potential bye week, as there are only a few (rather unrealistic) scenarios that have Green Bay securing the second spot in the NFC prior to the season finale. Another possibility exists for the Packers to land the top overall spot in the NFC; Green Bay would have to run the table to get to 13-3 and then hope that San Francisco would stumble (such as losing to Seattle in the season finale). All signs point toward the Packers playing hard to win as many games as possible, which is great news for anyone with Green Bay players in fantasy lineups throughout December.
Minnesota - The 9-4 Vikings posted an impressive win last week over Detroit, but strong performances by the rest of the NFC reduced their playoff chances from nearly 80% down to 71% as the Vikings enter Week 15. That probability increases to 85% with a win this week in Los Angeles, but an upset by the Chargers reduces that number to just 53%. That all adds up to high motivation for the Vikings for Week 15, especially with the gigantic matchup in Week 16 coming up with the Packers heading to Minnesota next week. Two wins in a row would almost assuredly put the Vikings into the playoffs, but if the Bears can upset Green Bay this week, it would be Minnesota's division to lose if the Vikings get to 11-4 with one game to go.
Chicago - The 7-6 Bears have to win out to have any realistic chance of making the playoffs, which is a tall order given that they share the toughest remaining strength of schedule with the Jets. Chicago is in must-win mode starting this week at Green Bay, but even if the Bears can overcome the Packers, tough games loom in Week 16 (Kansas City) and Week 17 (at Minnesota). If Chicago does manage to go 3-0 to close out the season, Bears fans should be rooting for Dallas to beat the Rams this week and for Minnesota to lose at the Chargers. Those two results combined with Chicago going 3-0 along with a second loss in Week 16 for the Rams (at San Francisco) is the clearest path for the Bears to return to the playoffs. On the flip side, a loss for Chicago in Green Bay this week combined with a Rams or Vikings win this Sunday would end any postseason hopes for the Bears.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans - The Saints are still the only team that has clinched a playoff spot in the highly competitive NFC, but the NFC South champions are still pushing for a bye and the top seed. Their tough loss at home against the 49ers was exciting, but it did hurt New Orleans' hopes for the top spot in the conference and the road to the Super Bowl going through Louisiana. San Francisco (11-2) now has a one-game lead and tiebreaker advantage over the 10-3 Saints, and New Orleans can only slightly improve their chances for a bye (from 48% to 50%) with a home win this week on Monday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts even though New Orleans has a 59% chance at getting a bye. The reason for this disparity is that both Green Bay (10-3) and the Saints share the same record, but the Packers own the tiebreaker with a better conference record right now. The good news is that the Saints have an easier schedule (vs. Colts, at Tennessee, at Carolina) than the Packers do for their final three contests (vs. Bears, at Minnesota, at Detroit). The Saints need to win their final three games and have the Packers drop one of their final three games for New Orleans to earn that coveted bye, so expect Drew Brees and New Orleans to be fighting for that second seed all the way through Week 17.
NFC WEST
San Francisco and Seattle - The playoff picture is combined for the 49ers and Seahawks, as one of these two teams will win the NFC West this year, which is the only similarity that Seattle and San Francisco share with the Cowboys and Eagles. The 49ers and Seahawks are two of the best teams in the NFC, with last week's impressive win in New Orleans elevating San Francisco to 11-2 and into the top seed slot in the NFC after 14 weeks. Seattle is hot on their heels at 10-3, and the Seahawks have an easier road in Weeks 15 and 16 (at Carolina, Arizona) than the 49ers (Atlanta, Los Angeles Rams). Both teams are expected to win out to force an epic Week 17 clash that is likely to be on Sunday Night Football to wrap up the regular season. The winner has a strong likelihood of being the top overall seed in the NFC, while the loser would fall all the way to the fifth seed and have to travel to the aforementioned NFC East champion (Dallas or Philadelphia) in the Wild Card round. There is no question that both teams have strong motivation to play hard and win out over the next three weeks.
LA Rams - The defending NFC Conference Champions are still alive for a playoff spot, which would only be as a fifth or sixth seed behind both the Seahawks and 49ers in the highly competitive NFC West. A win this week in Dallas would increase the Rams' chances of reaching the postseason from 39% to 53%, and that motivation combined with a very difficult trip to San Francisco in Week 16 pushes Los Angeles to treat the trip to Dallas like a playoff game. Two losses in a row to Dallas and the 49ers would all but eliminate the Rams (reducing their playoff chances to 4% or less), so this week is a must-win for all intents and purposes for the Rams. Wins in Week 15 and Week 17 (vs. Arizona) gives Los Angeles a 40% chance of a Wild card berth even with a loss to San Francisco, so expect every Ram to be a valuable player for fantasy playoffs that extend to Week 17.
The AFC playoff picture and team motivations are still rather complicated with three weeks left to play:
THE AFC
- Teams that have Clinched a Playoff Berth (2): Baltimore, Kansas City
- Teams in the Hunt (9): New England, Buffalo, Houston, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Oakland, Denver
- Teams Eliminated (5): Jacksonville, Cincinnati, LA Chargers, Miami, NY Jets
AFC EAST
New England - Guess which team in the AFC East has the worst record over the past five games? New England is 2-3, behind the Jets (4-1), Bills (3-2) and tied with Miami (2-3). Some of that is due to the Patriots' tougher schedule, but losses to Baltimore, Houston and now at home to Kansas City really add to the questions regarding how far New England might go in the postseason. A win in Week 15 at Cincinnati clinches a playoff spot for the Patriots, but plenty of motivation remains for Week 16 (Buffalo) and Week 17 (Miami) with a bye week still on the line. Only two wins by New England along with a loss by Kansas City in Week 15 (Denver) or Week 16 (at Chicago) locks up a week off for New England, so odds are high that the Patriots will push hard through Week 17 and not rest any players, especially after losing three games in the past five weeks.
Buffalo - The Bills had a strong showing last week at home against the Ravens, and despite that loss, the Bills have a 95% chance of making the playoffs. Motivation the next two weeks will not be a problem with trips to two playoff contenders in both Week 15 (at Pittsburgh) and Week 16 (at New England). Despite their 9-4 record, Buffalo is likely to be the underdog in both contests, but even two losses in a row would leave the Bills' playoff probability at a lofty 87% entering Week 17. Clearly they would love to win against the Steelers, Patriots or both, as a win against either puts them into the playoffs, but a win at home versus the Jets in Week 17 also gets the Bills into the postseason. Winning in Week 15 against Pittsburgh all but assures Buffalo of the fifth seed in the AFC, as they would have direct tiebreaker advantage due to beating the Steelers and Titans this season. Buffalo does have a remote chance to win the AFC East, but it would take a 3-0 finish from the Bills along with a second loss by New England against either Cincinnati (Week 15) or Miami (Week 17).
AFC NORTH
Baltimore - The 11-2 Ravens remain the Super Bowl favorite after another impressive win over the Bills in Buffalo in Week 14, increasing Baltimore's win streak to a franchise-record nine straight games. The Ravens are favored to keep the top spot in the AFC, as their schedule difficulty drops significantly starting with Thursday night against the Jets in Baltimore. A win over New York and another in Week 16 on the road at Cleveland would put Baltimore at 13-2, with only Kansas City within reach of the Ravens if the Chiefs win their next two contests (Denver, at Chicago). The Browns and Chiefs are the two teams with wins against the Ravens, so expect Baltimore to look to avenge that loss in Week 16 against the Browns and to keep the Chiefs from stealing that top seed. If the Ravens put up two more consecutive wins and Kansas City loses once over the next two weeks, the Ravens will still have something to play for in Week 17, even if it is not directly meaningful for Baltimore. The season finale is against the Steelers in Baltimore, and it will likely be very important to the Steelers who are pushing for a Wild Card spot. Expect Jim Harbaugh to play all of his starters in the season finale to keep his team's momentum and to eliminate Pittsburgh if he can before resting over Wild Card weekend.
Pittsburgh - The Steelers continue to stay alive, despite all odds and injuries this season. Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 over their past eight games despite a very lengthy list of team injuries, and every victory has been by seven points or less. Despite all of the challenges, Pittsburgh sits at 8-5 and in the final AFC Wild Card spot with three weeks to play and has a huge home game this week with the Buffalo Bills. A win on Sunday increases the Steelers' playoff probability from 62% to 89%, while the loss for the Bills would not have much impact (dropping Buffalo from 95% to 90%). Two wins in a row across this week and next (at the New York Jets and LeVeon Bell) would lock the Steelers into the playoffs, which is a big deal given that the season finale is a trip to divisonal rival - and likely top seed - Baltimore. Week 17 could still be impactful even if Pittsburgh does go 2-0 over the next two weeks with playoff seeding at stake, but it is clear that all of the Steelers' players are highly motivated to play well the next two weeks.
Cleveland - The Browns (yes, the Browns) entered Week 14 with a 5% chance at a Wild Card spot, and that number remains unchanged despite beating Cincinnati last week. Cleveland must beat Arizona to keep their slim chances realistically alive (technically the Browns are not eliminated with a loss alone, but the Browns' playoff chances drop under 1% with a loss). Week 16 will be huge for Cleveland, as they host Baltimore in another near-must-win situation. Two wins in a row over the Cardinals and Ravens increase Cleveland's playoff chances to 22%, but overall the road to the playoffs looks very tough for the Browns. Despite the likelihood of missing the posteason, pushing for an 8-8 record or better is strong motivation for a team that has endured years of disappointment. A non-losing season is something that the Browns can build on for 2020, so expect all Cleveland players to play hard through Week 17's finale in Cincinnati.
AFC SOUTH
Houston and Tennessee - The two teams that are most intertwined for playoff hopes in the NFL are the Texans and Titans. Both squads enter Week 15 at 8-5 and they face each other both in Week 15 in Houston and then again two weeks later in Tennessee. One of these two teams is your likely AFC South winner (the Colts have a very remote chance, which goes away if they lose to the Saints on Monday). Even if the Texans and Titans split their two head-to-head matchups, their respective Week 16 games may decide the division. Tennessee gets the tougher draw in two weeks, as the Titans must face the Saints in Tennessee, while the Texans visit Tampa Bay in Week 16. If both teams finish with the same record and assuming they split their two head-to-head contests, the division will go to Houston with a 4-2 record in the AFC South. Both teams will be alive for both the division and a Wild Card spot no matter the outcome this week in Houston, but Houston's playoff chances increase more (69% now, 96% with a victory) than if the Titan's secure the win (64% now, 82% with a win). Neither the Texans or Titans have a good shot at a bye, with Houston having the best odds with a win at just a 2% chance if they beat Tennessee on Sunday. With the schedule maker ensuring that all three remaining games are meaningful for both teams, all Texans and Titans players will have strong motivation to perform and produce good fantasy numbers through Week 17.
Indianapolis - The Colts' third loss in a row last week in Tampa Bay dropped them to 6-7 and nearly eliminated them from playoff contention. With less than a 1% to make the playoffs, Indianapolis is staring at elimination with a loss to New Orleans on Monday Night Football this week. Motivation for Colts players may come down to individual goals for Weeks 16 and 17, along with professional pride, playing for next year and their own careers along with chances of getting to 8-8 after a long season in the post-Andrew Luck era.
AFC WEST
Kansas City - The Chiefs took care of business Sunday with a 23-3 win over division rival Denver, but Baltimore and New England also won, which limits the chances of a bye for Kansas City. The Chiefs need to win this week (at Chicago) and in Week (vs. the Los Angeles Chargers) to have a chance at a bye, and that would only come with a New England loss or two Baltimore losses. The most likely chance for any of those to happen in this week's matchup between Buffalo and the Patriots. If all three teams win this week, it is not out of the question for Andy Reid to rest some of his key players in a meaningless Week 17 contest with Kansas City slated for a home game in the Wild Card round the next weekend.
Oakland - The Raiders have all but blown their slim playoff hopes with the loss to Jacksonville. Honestly, if an Oakland team loses their final home game ever in Oakland - why even bother to calculate their slim chances? Yet, we will. The Raiders need all of the following AND some help - two Oakland wins, two losses by Tennessee and two losses by Pittsburgh - and even then, the probability for Oakland is just 33% to get that final Wild Card spot. A team that can really help Oakland is Indianapolis, as two wins in Weeks 16 (Carolina) and Week 17 (at Jacksonville) would put the Colts at 8-8 and help the Raiders with tiebreakers. Even with all of that plus a loss by Cleveland in Week 16 to the Ravens - no less than nine favorable outcomes - the chances for Oakland are still not 100% (close, at 94%, but not a lock). That's right, Oakland needs even more help to get past Pittsburgh at 8-8 and to beat the Steelers on tiebreaker #5 for multiple teams - Strength of Victory. This is the total winning percentage of all the teams that each franchise has beaten for the season - but I digress. Oakland needs a ton of help, but they want to finish as strong as possible to build for Las Vegas and 2020.
