Quarterback
Nick Foles, JAX (at Indianapolis) - Foles is back and while this is actually his toughest matchup vs the pass through Week 16, it’s still worthy of a bye/injury or DFS look. Dede Westbrook should be ready to play, Foles was already on the same page with DJ Chark in the deep passing game (he got hurt on a perfectly thrown long touchdown pass), and the Colts have very little tape of the Jacksonville offense with Foles - although there is a handful of games out there with Foles running a John DeFilippo offense in Philadelphia).
Derek Carr, OAK (vs Cincinnati) - Carr gets a Bengals defense this week that has been rolling over and asking opposing quarterbacks to scratch their belly. Jared Goff and Mason Rudolph have had among their best days of the season against the Bengals even though they barely passed in the second half against them. Carr has a variety of passcatchers and a good offensive architect in Jon Gruden to make this go well on Sunday.
Sam Darnold, NYJ (at Washington) - Are we ready to trust Darnold? One week does not make a trend, but he was solid as a fantasy start last week against the Giants and gets an equally vulnerable defense in Washington this week. His top three receivers are healthy and the Jets opening drives at least have shown some prowess from Gase/Loggains. The only fear here is that the Jets run defense stymies the Washington offense to the point that the Jets pull away despite being on the road, but they are the Jets, so we’ll downplay that risk.
Carson Wentz, PHI (vs New England) - Playing Wentz against the #1 defense with Desean Jackson out, Alshon Jeffery ailing, and Zach Ertz likely locked up by Dallas Goedert might seem crazy, but Bill Belichick has never faced Wentz and his combination of mobility and downfield passing outside of structure, and if the Eagles are rational, they will run a ton of two tight end and/or two running back sets to get personnel advantages. The Patriots have only faced one top quarterback this year - Lamar Jackson - and he flummoxed their vaunted defense without the help passing game weapons.
Running Back
Brian Hill, ATL (at Carolina) - Hill is in a good spot because the Falcons have re-dedicated themselves to the run just in time to face a defense that is strong against the pass and weak against a ground attack. Hill is a three-down back with functional passing game skills, and his no nonsense downhill style will suit the game plan. The Panthers have given up 12 touchdowns to running backs in the last four games and no fewer than two in any of those games. They have kept opposing running backs from scoring only once this year.
Kalen Ballage, MIA (vs Buffalo) - Stop laughing. If the Dolphins are willing to give Ballage 20+ touches against the Bills, good things could happen. Ballage lacks vision and good decision-making, but if he can hit a hole with a head of steam, he can take it to the house. The Bills run defense is crumbling, giving up 100-yard games in each of the last two weeks and three scores to running backs the week before that. Miami being more competitive in recent weeks only helps Ballage’s case.
Duke Johnson Jr, HOU (at Baltimore) - Johnson has been a reasonable floor, low ceiling option lately, but the game is set up for him to play a large role if Deshaun Watson’s downfield passing is neutralized by the Ravens strong quarter of corners. Johnson has scored in three of the last four games, he had his highest touch total since Week 1 in the last game, and he has had at least four receptions in each of the last two games. If Lamar Jackson has a lot of success and the Texans are playing from behind, it should be more Johnson than Carlos Hyde in this one.
Miles Sanders, PHI (vs New England) - The Eagles have their work cut out for them on Sunday, but at least they have a pair of quality backs to hopefully frustrate Bill Belichick to compensate for a lack of quality receivers. Sanders has been a dangerous downfield receiver this year and the best matchups for the Eagles passing game will be when Sanders runs routes against a linebacker while the Patriots mediocre run defense has to contend with Jordan Howard.
Kenyan Drake, ARI (at San Francisco) - Drake was a revelation against the 49ers in his Cardinals debut two weeks ago. It sounds like David Johnson could play in this one, but his level of effectiveness is highly questionable, and Kliff Kingsbury has already shown the willingness to sit Johnson if he is running in wet cement. Drake is fresh and also very capable in the passing game against a 49ers defense that just played a vicious overtime game on Monday night.
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin, WAS (vs New York Jets) - It’s time get back on the F1 track after a hiatus from week-winning performances. We will have to count on his college quarterback who will surely see some blitzes from Jamal Adams, but when those blitzes don’t get home, McLaurin should be free against a Jets secondary that has given up 10 touchdowns to wide receivers in the last three weeks. You read that correctly.
Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow, OAK (vs Cincinnati) - The Bengals defense has been generous to receivers lately with four scores allowed in the last three games, including a 220-yard game to Cooper Kupp in a blowout and at least 50 receiving yards to three different Jaguars receivers. Williams has been slowed down by Darius Slay and Casey Hayward in recent weeks, but the Bengals don’t have a #1 corner of that caliber. Renfrow has at least four catches and 40 receiving yards in each of the last three games, including scores in two games.
Deebo Samuel, SF (vs Arizona) - We’ll have to watch Emmanuel Sanders status for this one. If Sanders can play, Samuel’s appeal takes a big hit, but if Samuel is the #1 receiver, he’ll occupy a role that Sanders turned into a huge game two weeks ago. Samuel looked ready to be the #1 last week after Sanders went down with 8-112 last week, and he also scored on a carry three weeks ago, giving him an extra way to do damage for your fantasy team.
Randall Cobb, DAL (at Detroit) - Cobb has stayed healthy this year and he is coming on as a fantasy factor. He has six catches in each of the last two games and reeled in a long score from Dak Prescott last week that was reminiscent of prime Cobb from his Packers days with Aaron Rodgers. The Lions will have Darius Slay trying to keep up with Amari Cooper and Rashaan Melvin on Michael Gallup, so Cobb could be a preferred target.
Robert Woods, LAR (vs Chicago) - The Steelers double-covered Cooper Kupp and took away Jared Goff’s favorite target last week. Los Angeles went 1-for-14 on third down as Goff was flustered without Kupp coming open at will on key passing downs. The Bears would be wise to mimic this approach, which would leave Woods as the preferred short and intermediate range target to hit to slow down the pass rush against a piecemeal offensive line. The Rams should also give Woods a few end around carries to keep the Bears defense from getting too downhill against an ailing running game.
Mike Williams, LAC (vs Kansas City - Mexico City) - Williams has been mostly an underachiever this year after coming into the season with big expectations around his fantasy stock. The reason to give Williams another chance this week is his performance when these two teams matched up in prime time last year. Williams notched three scores, including a game-winner on the final play of the game. He also had 5-81 against them in the season opener in 2018. Philip Rivers sees something he likes when Williams goes against the Chiefs corners.
Tight End
Gerald Everett, LAR (vs Chicago) - The logic that makes Woods a nice sleeper this week also makes Everett a preferred tight end option if you don’t have one of the obvious TE1s. Everett is coming off of a good performance (8-68) that saw him function as an outlet when the Steelers were getting pressure on Jared Goff and taking away Cooper Kupp. The Bears have been vulnerable against the tight end lately, allowing Zach Ertz to break out of a slump, giving up a score to Josh Hill, and surrendering 10 catches for over 100 yards to Raiders tight ends.
Dallas Goedert, PHI (vs New England) - All roads converge in Dallas this week for the Eagles offense, which is going to be playing with a limited-at-best Alshon Jeffery if he even available, which then allows Stephon Gilmore to be matched up on Zach Ertz. Goedert will be the obvious next target in the pecking order and should remain relevant for fantasy against a good defense, but one that allowed touchdowns to tight ends in each of the last two games.
Ross Dwelley, SF (vs Arizona) - There’s an outside chance George Kittle returns this week and ruins the pajama party for Dwelley, but if he doesn’t Dwelley will be the latest to test just how far down our tight end list we go when Arizona is the opponent. Even OJ Howard had a strong game against them last week, and Dwelley himself had a respectable 4-29 while Kittle was in and out of the lineup against the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Cardinals are up to 10 touchdowns allowed to tight ends this year and five games of at least 75 receiving yards.
Blake Jarwin, DAL (at Detroit) - Dallas continues to play Jason Witten over Blake Jarwin in terms of snaps, but Jarwin had four targets to Witten’s five last week in what could be a development to watch in fantasy. Jarwin is obviously the better threat downfield and he could be an important target as the Cowboys face a solid trio of Lions corners this week. Jarwin has scored two of the last three weeks, and the Lions have given up tight end touchdowns in the last four games.
Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, IND (vs Jacksonville) - Ebron had his shot at an outsized target share last week and while he produced he also had a touchdown stolen away and turned into an interception in a key play. Doyle might be the better play of the two, but both are worthy against a Jaguars defense that has allowed five tight end touchdowns since Week 4. The Colts won’t have TY Hilton and AJ Bouye should blot out one of the their second teamers pressed into starting duty, so expect Jacoby Brissett to lean on his tight ends.
