With 31 days to go between now and the start of the regular season, it’s way too early to begin crafting DFS lineups that will actually be playable come September. But Draftkings released Week 1 NFL pricing last week, which means it’s time to begin exercising our DFS brains by checking for salary inefficiencies and exploring ways to gain edges in tournaments.
One note of caution: These are first-blush, EARLY reactions to DraftKings’ Week 1 pricing -- little more than a written stream of consciousness while making a first pass on each position. As summer winds down, preseason fallout is likely to make some of these takes appear downright silly. If you’re reading this article for anything more than a first look at what jumps out on DraftKings pricing, you’re not using it as intended. Stay tuned to Footballguys as the preseason wraps up, and make sure you’re subscribed to our All-Pro or DFS Plans, for a well-informed guide to beating DraftKings contests in Week 1.
With that important caveat out of the way, here are the things that stood out most on a first pass through DraftKings pricing:
Quarterback
DraftKings’ quarterback pricing is notoriously flat, but there is some separation at the top in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes II ($7,200) is the QB1. Some GPP exposure to the Chiefs offense is always warranted but a Week 1 road matchup in Jacksonville is less than ideal. The Jaguars picked off Mahomes twice in Week 5 last year and were the only team to hold him without a passing touchdown during the regular season.
Andrew Luck ($6,700) thinks he’ll be fine for the start of the regular season, but it’s not a given at this point. He’s shaping up as a risky Week 1 play facing a strong Chargers defense on the road.
The over/under is on the rise in San Francisco at Tampa Bay (49 points) and the Buccanneers passing game is getting plenty of love in redraft leagues. Jameis Winston ($6,600) is priced way up and this has the feel of a game the crowd will pile on. If it becomes clear Winston will be popular at an inflated price, Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,800) might be the better tournament play against a Tampa Bay pass defense that surrendered the sixth-most passing yards and third-most passing touchdowns in the league last year.
Cam Newton ($6,500) is at home against the Rams in the game with the second-highest point total on the slate (51 points). Given his high price relative to the field, Newton should go lightly owned despite Vegas’ implied game script and his immense upside as one of the league’s premier dual-threat quarterbacks.
By the time the preseason is over, enough value should open up to allow you to spend big at quarterback (if you feel the need). But for now, targeting the $6K and under range looks like the right call. Lamar Jackson ($6,000) can blow past his median projections against a Miami team in the midst of a complete rebuild, even in a game with a 37.5-point over/under.
Carson Wentz ($5,700) is healthy, his pass-catching weapons are lethal, and he has to be considered an early favorite to finish as one of the top point-per-dollar values at the position in Week 1. The Eagles are favored by 8.5 points at home against a Washington team that will be battling the Giants for last place in the NFC East this season.
Judging by the early reaction to Week 1 pricing on Twitter, Kyler Murray ($5,600) could end up a chalk play in his first NFL start. Just be careful about Murray’s season-long outlook clouding your Week 1 judgment. The Cardinals plan on ratcheting up their pace under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, but the Lions played at the fourth-slowest situation-neutral pace last season. This might not be the matchup where Arizona is able to get their new-look offense off the ground.
Kirk Cousins ($5,500) pops off the page as the most mispriced quarterback on the slate. Minnesota is currently favored by four points at home against an Atlanta defense that allowed 26.4 points per game last season. The Falcons defense will be healthier than they were at any point in 2018, but even if they’re massively improved, the team’s offense is capable of forcing Minnesota into a shootout, especially when playing indoors. Cousins, who flashed a 30+ point ceiling on multiple occasions in his first year with the Vikings, should be one of your most heavily-owned quarterbacks if nothing changes his outlook between now and Week 1.
Nick Foles ($5,300) is probably the cheapest quarterback worth considering. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, a trend that can continue in Week 1 if you believe the Chiefs are capable of hanging a big number on Jacksonville. Foles has an intriguing group of (inexpensive and below-the-radar) pass-catchers to help him rack up garbage time points.
Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,200) looks like the best top-tier running back play on the board. As long as his contract situation is worked out by Week 1, he’s a fine piece to start building lineups around. The Cowboys are favored by more than a touchdown at home against a hapless Giants team which sets up an ideal game script for Elliott. Should Elliott’s holdout continue into the regular season, Tony Pollard ($4,500) will be chalky, though DraftKings did a decent job pricing him above most clear backups.
The Giants offense may not put up many points against Dallas, but Saquon Barkley ($9,000) will get all the work he can handle. In two games against the Cowboys last year, Barkley combined for 28 carries, 137 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 113 receiving yards, and a touchdown. DraftKings’ full PPR scoring gives Barkley a stable floor and his big-play athleticism provides a GPP-winning ceiling. The same can be said of Christian McCaffrey ($8,800), who should find himself in a high-scoring game against the Rams.
If David Johnson ($7,700) lives up to his RB5 price tag, it will probably mean he had a great game as a receiver. Last year’s in-season addition of nose tackle Damon Harrison turned the Lions into a formidable run defense overnight. Like his teammate Murray, you might want to wait for a better matchup before committing too heavily to Johnson and the allure of Arizona’s new paced-up offense.
Here are the differences between before/after the Damon “Snacks” Harrison trade...
— PFF DET Lions (@PFF_Lions) May 24, 2019
overall team grade Weeks 1-7: 62.5 (30th)
Run D Weeks 1-7: 69.0 (26th) overall team grade Weeks 8-17: 80.2 (12th)
Run D Weeks 8-17: 91.7 (2nd)
The “Snacks” effect is a real thing#OnePride
The cluster of running backs going in the $6,300-to-$7,500 range are likely to see light ownership. Melvin Gordon ($7,500) appears dug into a lengthy holdout. LeVeon Bell ($7,100) has the stink of the Jets on him. Injuries to A.J. Green and Jonah Williams threaten to tank the Bengals offense, making Joe Mixon ($6,700) a dicey option on the road in Seattle (Cincinnati is currently a 9.5-point underdog). Nick Chubb ($6,400) and Damien Williams ($6,300) each face difficult matchups against Tennesee and Jacksonville, respectively. If you’re looking for high upside GPP pivots, this is your group.
Things start to get interesting in the $5,000-to-$6,100 range, starting at the top with Leonard Fournette ($6,100). If he can make it through training camp without getting hurt, Fournette will enjoy a home matchup with the Chiefs, who allowed 27.2% more fantasy points to opposing running backs than league average last season.
Similar to his teammate Cousins, DraftKings blew it on Dalvin Cook’s Week 1 price ($6,000). ‘Play your pass-catching running backs against the Falcons’ is a hard and fast rule in DFS. Atlanta has allowed the most running back receptions in four consecutive seasons dating back to 2015. Cook should be fully healthy to start the season and no longer has to contend with Latavius Murray siphoning touches. Week 1 could end up being his best game all year.
If Detroit is able to control the pace against Arizona, it will be because their defense is able to force three-and-outs and Kerryon Johnson ($5,800) can keep Murray off the field. The Cardinals allowed the most fantasy points to enemy running backs in 2018 and their emphasis this off-season was not on improving their defense.
Chris Carson ($5,700) finished with more top-10 weekly finishes than Mixon, his counterpart in Week 1’s Cincinnati at Seattle matchup. With the Seahawks currently the heaviest home favorites on the slate, there should be enough work to go around for both Carson and Rashaad Penny ($4,900). The only thing holding Carson back is his lack of receptions, but maybe that changes this year.
If you’re thinking about Carson, paying down to Mark Ingram ($5,100) might be the better idea. What Ingram lacks as a pass-catcher, he makes up for with multi-touchdown upside as the lead runner on a team likely to enjoy a positive game script. Baltimore is a 4.5-point road favorite but there isn’t a larger talent gap between two opposing rosters in Week 1 than the Ravens and Dolphins. If the game turns into a blowout, Ingram will punish Miami’s shoddy linebacker corps.
Tevin Coleman ($5,000) rounds out an exciting group of running backs in the $5K-$6K tier. All signs since OTAs have pointed to Coleman leading the 49ers backfield committee, and at the very least, he’ll assume a featured role in the passing game in Week 1. A Garoppolo-Coleman contrarian stack barely costs 20% of the cap and plays well against Tampa Bay, who allowed huge receiving games to Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Tarik Cohen last year.
Pickings are currently slim when you drop down below $5,000 but Miles Sanders ($3,900) sticks out like a sore thumb. Since reports of Jordan Howard dominating first-team reps emerged early in training camp, Sanders has generated more positive buzz than any fantasy-relevant player in the league. The same game script that boosts Wentz’s Week 1 outlook applies to Sanders, who looks too good to keep off the field.
That Miles Sanders jump cut tho 👀 pic.twitter.com/6fI09Jmoag
— Gayle Saunders (@EagleSessions) August 5, 2019
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham ($8,100) is the WR1. With Julio Jones ($8,000) and Mike Evans ($7,900) both in potentially higher-scoring games, it wouldn’t be shocking if the crowd left Beckham lightly owned while taking a wait-and-see approach towards his performance on a new team. Jones makes an ideal correlation play in Vikings stacks. Evans is an air-yards monster in a vertical, pass-happy offense missing 28% of its targets from last year. Overall WR1 is well within his range of possible outcomes on this slate.
Both of Amari Cooper’s ($7,000) week-winning performances as a Cowboy came in home games last season. If you like the Cowboys to beat the Giants by more than a touchdown in Dallas, as the early betting line implies, getting significant exposure to Cooper makes sense, particularly if Elliott sits out.
The back end of Carolina’s secondary was a weakness last season. Getting equal exposure to Brandin Cooks ($6,500) and Robert Woods ($6,400) seems like a good idea. Cooper Kupp ($5,700) is cheap enough to be interesting too. But even though he’s been fully cleared to practice in training camp, he’ll be less than eight months removed from ACL surgery in Week 1. The probability of the Rams other receivers benefiting from Kupp’s terrific downfield blocking is greater than Kupp having a huge statistical game in his first game action since last November.
Kenny Golladay ($6,300), Chris Godwin ($6,200), and Tyler Lockett ($6,000) are bunched together in price the same way they are in season-long ADP lists. Since all are in plus matchups, allocating exposure between these three comes down to projected ownership. If we assume the crowd is on the 49ers at Buccanneers game, Godwin should be the highest-owned, followed by Golladay (who avoids coverage from the suspended Patrick Peterson), and Lockett. Given Seattle’s status as a huge home favorite, Lockett, who combines splash-play ability with a sturdy new target floor, might be the best GPP play of the trio.
The wide receivers priced in the $5,000’s aren’t the most exciting. Alshon Jeffery ($5,900) makes sense for Wentz stacks, but DeSean Jackson ($4,500) has way more big-play upside at a lower price. Tyler Boyd ($5,800) should be a target magnet with A.J. Green sidelined, which sounds nice until you realize Cincinnati’s 17-point implied total caps his ceiling. Maybe Robby Anderson ($5,200) now has a safe target floor to go along with his lid-popping downfield ability?
Unlike running back, viable options at wide receiver below $5K are numerous. Unless (until) injuries open up more running back value, it’s likely you’ll need at least one or two receivers from this group in most lineups. Dede Westbrook ($4,800), Christian Kirk ($4,700), Jackson, John Brown ($4,300), and Curtis Samuel ($4,200) all have upside at their respective prices.
If you need to scrape the bottom of the barrel at wide receiver, Trey Quinn ($3,400) could be in for heavy-volume from the slot as Washington attempts to keep pace with Philadelphia. Rashard Higgins ($3,200) is another low-cost option. Antonio Callaways is suspended and Higgins has showed a strong connection with Baker Mayfield.
Tight End
The strength of Jacksonville’s cornerbacks sometimes funnels targets to opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce ($7,100) had 100 yards on five targets in last year’s meeting between these teams. No one can be faulted for building rosters around Kelce, but Zach Ertz ($6,100) is a much better value at $1,000 less.
There is a steep drop-off after Kelce, George Kittle ($6,600), and Ertz all the way down to O.J. Howard at $5,000. Howard profiles as a fine weekly tournament play, but Evan Engram ($4,800) is priced just below him and offers double-digit target upside with Beckham gone, Golden Tate suspended, and Sterling Shepard ($5,000) looking iffy for Week 1.
Hunter Henry ($3,900) should probably be priced closer to Engram. LA has historically leaned on tight ends under Philip Rivers and Henry was on a rare career trajectory before tearing his ACL last June. No team allowed more receiving yards to opposing tight ends in 2018 than Henry’s Week 1 opponent, Indianapolis.
Going below Henry doesn’t seem necessary for any reason besides roster differentiation. Unexciting plays like Kyle Rudolph ($3,300) and Greg Olsen ($3,200) are at least playing at home in potential shootouts. Tyler Eifert ($3,100) could be worth a spin (if he’s ready for Week 1) with the Bengals likely playing from behind.
Defense/Special Teams
Paying up to a defense playing on the road never feels quite right, but you can ignore the cognitive dissonance when Baltimore’s elite unit ($3,800) faces the quarterbacking of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen in Week 1.
The Eagles ($3,600) and Cowboys ($3,500) are also worthy spends in the top tier. Their division opponents, Washington and New York, should field two of the league’s worst offenses this year.
Seattle ($3,100) lost talent on the defensive side of the ball this off-season but not enough to wreck their fantasy outlook at home against an A.J. Green-less Bengals team. The other mid-tier defense to target is the Jets ($3,100), who face Josh Allen and the Bills at home. Buffalo’s off-season moves -- improving the offensive line, signing short-area target Cole Beasley, and bringing in three new running backs -- feel designed to keep Allen in the pocket. If Allen is throwing more and running less, he’s a potential interception machine.
Fading the groupthink on Arizona’s offense by playing the Lions defense ($2,900) would be a good way to get a leg up on all the Cardinals stacks we’re likely to see. Murray may be the next great quarterback, but he’s still a rookie making his first NFL start.
The best-looking punt option at the position is the 49ers ($2,200) due to the possibility Jameis Winston has a multi-interception meltdown and some of those 49 points Vegas is implying come via the San Francisco defense.
