#Trendspotting: Week 6

Photo: Imagn Images

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Follow the Targets
• Tweets of the Week
• Looks Can Be Deceiving
• Playcalling Preferences
• Going Deep
• Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
• Games of the Week

Follow the Targets

This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.

Commentary

The table above shows the seven worst teams in net yards per pass attempt allowed (with Miami being the worst).

• Cincinnati's opponents target running backs on 32.4% of their pass attempts, the highest ratio in the NFL.
• Cincinnati has allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs, tied for the most in the NFL.
• Atlanta allows 197.0 yards per game to wide receivers, fourth-most.
• Atlanta has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers, most in the NFL.
• Arizona allows 92.2 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL.
• Baltimore allows 200.8 yards per game to wide receivers, third-most.

Speaking of how Baltimore allows its production, let's look at that defense vs. its Week 6 opponent.

• Cincinnati targets its wide receivers on 65.2% of its pass attempts, the fifth-highest ratio in the league.
• Baltimore opponents target wide receivers on 68.5% of their pass attempts, the third-highest ratio.
• Cincinnati gains 81.7% of its pass yards via wide receivers, the second-highest ratio.
• Baltimore allows 68.9% of its pass yards via wide receivers, the sixth-highest ratio.

Action Items

Cincinnati is far from a good team, but their offensive output is predictable, which is something to target in fantasy football. Despite being without A.J. Green for the whole season and now without John Ross, the Bengals continue to utilize wide receivers at a high rate. And with options limited, Tyler Boyd continues to benefit.

Outside of the Monday night game in Pittsburgh where the whole offense was terrible, Boyd has no fewer than 6 receptions and 60 yards in any other game this season. He has two games with at least 10 catches and 120 yards as well. Boyd is a locked-in cash game play in DFS and a WR1 in season-long leagues. Baltimore's passing defense isn't what it used to be.

Atlanta's defense is terrible, especially since Keanu Neal's injury. They are yielding most of their production to wide receivers. This week, they face a team that likes to utilize its wide receivers. Fire up Larry Fitzgerald, who has no fewer than five receptions in any game this season. Along with Fitzgerald, Kyler Murray is in play. He has been a high-floor play so far this year, but Murray's ceiling could be raised this week.

Arizona allowed only 4 receptions for 30 yards to Cincinnati tight ends last week, and they're still yielding 3.7 more fantasy points per game than the second-worst team against the position. Tight end Defense vs. Position stats can be noisy, but Austin Hooper is a focal point of Atlanta's offense.

Hooper is seeing 19% of Atlanta's targets, the seventh-highest market share among tight ends. Hooper has also seen the sixth-most air yards among all tight ends. Hooper is priced high but is cash game viable in DFS.

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Tweets of the Week

Kyler is good, Part I.

Quarterbacks with 16 or more standard fantasy points in each of their first five games:

Patrick Mahomes II
Photos provided by Imagn Images