Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2018 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
- Funnel Watch
- Follow the Targets
- The Weakest Links
- Showdown Slate Stuff
- Playcalling Preferences
- Going Deep
Funnel Watch
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
| Team | PaYd/Gm | RuYd/Gm | NYd/Att | Yd/Rush | PassYd% | RushYd% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 293.7 | 57.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 83.7% | 16.3% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 290.3 | 60.3 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 261.0 | 69.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 250.7 | 67.7 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
"NYd/Att" = net yards per passing attempt; factors yards lost via sacks instead of raw yards per attempt
"PassYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"RushYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
The table above shows the teams that are easy to pass against, tough against the run, or both. The chart is sorted by the teams that allow the highest percentage of their total yards via the air.
The commentary below will serve as further assistance in reading this chart this week and in future weeks. In most weeks, this section will combine with the following section to determine how these teams allow passing production.
Commentary
- Philadelphia is allowing 293.7 passing yards per game, fourth-most in the NFL.
- Philadelphia allows 83.7% of its total yards via the pass, the highest ratio in the NFL.
- Baltimore allows 82.8% of its total yards via the pass, the second-highest ratio.
- Baltimore allows 7.5 net yards per pass attempt, eighth-most.
Follow the Targets
This section will examine which offensive positions have the most success through the air against certain defenses.
As mentioned above, this section will focus on the teams that allow the most passing production. As a follow-up to "Funnel Watch," here are the four teams listed above.
| RBs | WRs | TEs | ||||||||||
| Team | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | Tgt % | YdsRk | TDs | |||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 20.3% | 26 | 0 | 61.9% | 26 | 6 | 17.8% | 14 | 1 | |||
| Baltimore Ravens | 14.4% | 18 | 1 | 68.3% | 29 | 3 | 17.3% | 17 | 0 | |||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 15.2% | 3 | 0 | 59.8% | 17 | 2 | 25.0% | 31 | 1 | |||
| Seattle Seahawks | 19.3% | 28 | 1 | 59.6% | 13 | 3 | 21.1% | 15 | 2 | |||
"Tgt %" = the percentage of overall targets faced allowed to that position
"YdsRk" = rank among NFL teams in yards allowed to that position
(32 means that team allows the most yardage; 1 means they allow the least)
Let's get into some commentary to help decipher the tables.
Commentary
- Philadelphia opponents target running backs on 20.4% of their pass attempts, the 14th-highest ratio in the NFL.
- Philadelphia opponents gain 55.3 receiving yards per game via running backs, seventh-most.
- Philadelphia opponents gain 202.3 yards per game via wide receivers, seventh-most.
- Tampa Bay opponents gain 93.3 yards per game via tight ends, second-most.
Sometimes the stars align, and an offense targets its players the same way an opposing defense allows its production. For example:
| Team | RB Tgt% | WR Tgt% | TE Tgt% | RB Rec% | WR Rec% | TE Rec% | RB Yd% | WR Yd% | TE Yd% |
| Cleveland Browns | 21.1% | 60.6% | 11.9% | 27.4% | 61.3% | 11.3% | 22.1% | 81.2% | 7.9% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 14.4% | 68.3% | 17.3% | 20.9% | 61.2% | 17.9% | 12.7% | 71.1% | 16.2% |
- Baltimore opponents target running backs on 14.4% of their pass attempts, the sixth-lowest ratio.
- Baltimore opponents gain 216.3 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Cleveland gains 196.0 yards per game via wide receivers, fourth-most.
- Baltimore opponents gain 71.1% of their yardage via wide receivers, the ninth-highest ratio.
- Cleveland gains 81.2% of its yardage via wide receivers, the fourth-highest ratio.
Action Items
With Jimmy Smith ailing and slot corner Tavon Young injured during the preseason and out for the year, Baltimore has yielded big games to opposing WR1s and slot receivers alike. Fellow cornerback Marlon Humphrey is also on the injury report this week.
Don't do anything silly like benching Odell Beckham. While the stats say Jarvis Landry has started slow, 99% of the team's snaps and 9 targets last week suggest production could be coming soon. At a projected 0.4% rostered in DraftKings tournaments, Landry makes for an interesting GPP candidate.
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
QBs who have faced the Cardinals so far this year:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 23, 2019
Week 1: Matthew Stafford 31.6 DK points at $5400
Week 2: Lamar Jackson 33.9 DK points at $6700
Week 3: Kyle Allen 25.3 DK points at $4000
Commentary
It's worth mentioning what the tight ends and receivers have done against Arizona as well. Let's look at another "passing production table" for this week's matchup:
| Team | RB Tgt% | WR Tgt% | TE Tgt% | RB Rec% | WR Rec% | TE Rec% | RB Yd% | WR Yd% | TE Yd% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 19.0% | 58.1% | 18.1% | 25.3% | 53.3% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 74.5% | 19.3% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 14.1% | 55.6% | 30.3% | 17.6% | 48.5% | 33.8% | 12.5% | 49.2% | 38.2% |
To tight ends, Arizona is allowing the third-highest ratio of targets, third-highest ratio of receptions, and highest ratio of yardage.
Action Items
Will Dissly is averaging 5.5 catches, 56 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns on 6 targets in his last two games, and Seattle just traded backup Nick Vannett to Pittsburgh. That plus the matchup makes him the "punt" tight end du jour. Dissly is a top-10 option in season-long leagues this week.
Showdown Slate Stuff
Here are a couple of tidbits related to the primetime games this week that could be useful in determining which players to use in Showdown Slates.
Zeke's Role Change
Zeke was targeted every 4.5 routes run in ’18, finishing with career-highs in targets (6.3) and routes (27.4) per game. He’s merely averaged 2.3 targets on 19.7 routes through Week 3.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 23, 2019
We're not here to tell you that Ezekiel Elliott is a bad play (especially in a one-game slate), but this could be a reason to fade him as the "Captain."
New Orleans Defense
Early in 2019, the Saints are back to their old ways of allowing production to quarterbacks at an alarming rate.
- New Orleans allows 32.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the most in the NFL.
- New Orleans allows Photos provided by Imagn Images
