Reader's Guide
As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:
- All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
- All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
- All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
- All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.
Week 1 Introduction
In typical weeks, we'll jump straight into the column. But with this being Week 1, we have no 2019 data to use to form trends and make recommendations. Since this week's column will be a little light on the actual #Trendspotting, we'll use this section to introduce some of the topics that will appear in the column throughout the season.
| Section Name | Description |
| Follow the Targets | Examining how defenses allow targets, yards, and touchdowns to the RB, WR, and TE positions. |
| Strengths and Weaknesses | Dissecting how offenses gain yards (% via pass and % via rush) and how defenses allow them. |
| How Will They Score? | Using Vegas lines combined with how teams score and allow points to determine how they'll score. |
| The Weakest Links | Highlighting matchups to be exploited. |
| Tweets of the Week | Interesting, noteworthy, and informative tweets to help identify fantasy recommendations. |
| Looks Can Be Deceiving | Comparing raw "Defense vs. Position" stats vs. Footballguys Normalized Strength of Schedule. |
| Now #Trending | Using recent DvP stats vs. the prior portion of the season to identify teams improving or declining. |
| Playcalling Preferences | Identifying the most pass-heavy and run-heavy teams and comparing them to opponents. |
| Going Deep | Identifying offenses that throw the most and defenses that face the most deep attempts. |
| Tempo, Tempo, Tempo | Using situation-neutral tempo to identify fast-paced matchups for the week. |
| Game of the Week | Taking a deep dive into the best plays in the week's most popular game. |
Some of these features can debut as early as next week, but some (like our Normalized Strength of Schedule) require at least four weeks of data to be useful.
Week 1: Let's Get the Party Started
This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
Strengths and Weaknesses
This section will dissect how offenses gain their yards and how defenses allow them.
| Passing | ||||||
| Offensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | PaYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 77.4% | 1 | New England Patriots | 69.1% | 23 | 73.3% |
| Green Bay Packers | 71.7% | 8 | Chicago Bears | 73.7% | 30 | 72.7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 77.0% | 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 67.9% | 19 | 72.4% |
| New Orleans Saints | 68.1% | 13 | Houston Texans | 75.9% | 31 | 72.0% |
| Houston Texans | 65.4% | 22 | New Orleans Saints | 77.5% | 32 | 71.5% |
| New York Giants | 71.3% | 9 | Dallas Cowboys | 71.6% | 27 | 71.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 73.7% | 4 | Washington Redskins | 67.3% | 16 | 70.5% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 72.8% | 6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 67.6% | 17 | 70.2% |
"PaYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the pass
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "PaYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more passing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
This table (and the rushing one below) has been sorted by the average of expected yardage ("Avg %"). This highlights the pass-heavy offenses and also the pass-friendly defenses. For example, Houston gained 65.4% of its total yardage via the pass, the 11th-lowest percentage in the NFL. But New Orleans allowed 77.5% of its total yardage via the pass, the highest percentage in the NFL.
In theory, that New Orleans defense should allow even an average passing team like Houston to gain more yards than usual via the air. We're being cautious this week because it's 2018 data, but in future weeks, showing the averages to highlight both offense and defense should help to identify positive situations.
For this week, a couple of these items are useful for us. For example, Pittsburgh gained 77.4% of its 2018 yardage via the pass, the highest percentage in the NFL. That's unlikely to change dramatically given their offensive makeup. And New England allowed 69.1% of its 2018 yardage via the pass, the 10th-highest percentage in the NFL. New England could improve in this area, but common sense tells us that if Pittsburgh is going to move the ball, they're more likely do it via the pass.
It won't be often that we discuss the Giants offense here, but game flow and 2018 stats suggest if they are going to move the ball this weekend, it will likely be through the air. When that aligns with a condensed target distribution, viable DFS plays come to the surface.
Action Items
- JuJu Smith-Schuster should be among the league's target leaders this season. Smith-Schuster is high-end WR1 in any given week. Don't be scared off by New England's "shut down the best option" narrative.
- Both Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are in line for plenty of targets for New York. Shepard is the preferred DFS play due to pricing and positional scarcity, but Engram is deserving of GPP consideration.
| Rushing | ||||||
| Offensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Defensive Team | RuYd% | Rank | Avg. % |
| Seattle Seahawks | 44.3% | 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 34.1% | 24 | 39.2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 38.7% | 4 | Miami Dolphins | 36.7% | 28 | 37.7% |
| Buffalo Bills | 41.3% | 2 | New York Jets | 33.1% | 19 | 37.2% |
| Detroit Lions | 31.7% | 21 | Arizona Cardinals | 42.1% | 32 | 36.9% |
| Tennessee Titans | 40.7% | 3 | Cleveland Browns | 32.1% | 12 | 36.4% |
| Denver Broncos | 34.9% | 10 | Oakland Raiders | 37.8% | 30 | 36.3% |
| New York Jets | 33.4% | 15 | Buffalo Bills | 38.8% | 31 | 36.1% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 37.6% | 5 | New York Giants | 33.4% | 22 | 35.5% |
"RuYd%" = the percentage of a team's yards gained or allowed via the rush
"Rank" = the ranking of that percentage among NFL teams
(for offenses, 1 is the highest percentage; for defenses, 32 is the highest percentage)
"Avg. %" = the average of both "RuYd%" figures
(the higher the number, the more rushing yardage we can expect for the offense)
Commentary
The only reason to assume Seattle's pass-to-rush ratio will change this year is more competitive games. But the Week 1 matchup hosting Cincinnati shouldn't be one of those. Another run game likely to be boosted by game flow is Baltimore's.
Action Items
- Chris Carson is set for an every-down role in Seattle. Carson is among the best DFS plays of the week, regardless of format.
- Baltimore has to be excited to play with their shiny new toy, Mark Ingram. Due to team philosophy and expected script, Ingram should be near the top of the player pool in DFS this week
The Weakest Links
In this section, we'll discuss the matchups that you should look to exploit every week.
Commentary
The following stats are from 2018 but exclude Week 17.
- Cincinnati allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season.
- Atlanta allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season.
- Cincinnati allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs last season.
- The Giants allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs last season.
- Buffalo allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs last season.
- Kansas City allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season
- San Francisco allowed the eight-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season.
Action Items
- Expected game script suggests Seattle should run, but quarterbacks often fare well in "plus" scripts too. Don't forget about Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett.
- Kirk Cousins is priced affordably in DFS circles this week and is cash-game viable.
- Cincinnati allowed 17.3 rushing fantasy points per game to running backs last season, third-most in the NFL, and allowed 13.6 receiving fantasy points to running backs, fifth-most. You saw the player photo at the top of the article, right?
- Ezekiel Elliott is worth a GPP shot and should be started confidently as an RB1 in season-long leagues. It's unlikely that those who roster him have considerably better options.
- LeVeon Bell said he's ready for 50 carries if asked. He won't get that many, but expect his workload to be high. Bell is a high-end RB1 and a DFS cash game option.
- Kansas City's defensive backfield should be improved, but don't sleep on this game as a shootout. Dede Westbrook should lead Jacksonville in targets. With his big-play ability, Westbrook is a WR2 and attractive DFS play at the price.
- San Francisco was poor against wide receivers despite often being in game scripts that should have allowed opponents to run more. Mike Evans should see as many targets as he can handle this week, and as colleague John Lee pointed out on the Power Grid, if Evans is in the slot, he'll have a massive height advantage.
Playcalling Preferences
In this section, we'll look at how teams call plays. Because game script and red zone can skew pass-to-run ratios, the percentages below only show plays called when the game is within seven points in either direction and plays run between the 20s.
Rushing
| Offensive Team | Rush% | Defensive Team | Rush% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 55.7% | Cincinnati Bengals | 45.5% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 52.1% | Miami Dolphins | 47.1% |
| Buffalo Bills | 51.4% | New York Jets | 38.6% |
| Washington Redskins | 50.2% | Philadelphia Eagles | 42.2% |
| Carolina Panthers | 48.1% | Los Angeles Rams | 49.5% |
| New York Jets | 47.8% | Buffalo Bills | 42.9% |
| Detroit Lions | 47.4% | Arizona Cardinals | 48.8% |
| Tennessee Titans | 46.9% | Cleveland Browns | 40.8% |
Commentary and Action Items
- Seattle rushed on 55.7% of its offensive plays last season, the highest percentage in the NFL.
- Cincinnati faced a rush on 45.5% of its defensive plays last season, the seventh-highest percentage.
- Baltimore rushed on 52.1% of its offensive plays last season, the second-highest percentage.
- Miami faced a rush on 47.1% of its defensive plays last season, the fifth-highest percentage.
- The L.A. Rams faced a rush on 49.5% of its defensive plays last season, the highest percentage.
- Arizona faced a rush on 48.8% of its defensive plays last season, the second-highest percentage.
Carson has multi-touchdown and 100-yard game potential this week. Ingram could see 20+ touches and finish with an RB1 week as well. 2018 tendencies for both their offenses and opposing defenses also make Christian McCaffrey and Kerryon Johnson even more attractive than their typical-week outlooks would suggest.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
The speed at which teams play is an often-overlooked piece of fantasy analysis and projections. If teams play fast, they give their players more chances for production. Because offenses have more cont
