In a normal, non-PPR league, which rookie running back has the most value for the 2019 season? Does your answer change for PPR leagues?
Jason Wood
Josh Jacobs is the easy answer, and likely the consensus pick for good reason. The Raiders want a workhorse feature back and have given no indication since drafting Jacobs he's not their guy for the role. New general manager Mike Mayock called Jacobs a "three-down back" recently, and the only credible competition for carries -- free agent Isaiah Crowell -- suffered a season-ending injury already. Jacobs should see his fair share of dump-offs from Derek Carr, too, so no change whether we're talking PPR or traditional redraft leagues.
Daniel Simpkins
Jason is correct in picking Josh Jacobs for both PPR and non-PPR formats. He’s also right to highlight the fact that the Raiders are going to feature him both in the passing game and in the running game, something to which few backs can lay claim. Doug Martin, who was recently re-signed after the Crowell injury, poses no threat to Jacobs in the short or long-term.
Phil Alexander
Jacobs is the only running back in the rookie class with first-round NFL Draft pedigree. And it's true he doesn't have much competition for early-down work, as the guys pointed out. I'm skeptical, however, he finishes as the top rookie running back in 2019.
Are we sure Jacobs is a three-down back right away? Jalen Richard, who caught 68 passes last year, is still on the roster. If Richard remains Gruden's favorite on passing downs, Jacobs profiles as a two-down back on a team whose defense won't afford him many leads to protect. Not to mention, Jacobs' athletic profile is, frankly, awful. He might be a talented runner, but his 4.69 speed and below average burst showed at Alabama, where he had a low percentage of explosive carries.
I'm avoiding Jacobs at ADP and ending up with a ton of Miles Sanders in early Best Ball drafts for three main reasons:
- Sanders is a better athlete than Jacobs by every objective measure.
- His team is quarterbacked by Carson Wentz (and not Derek Carr). With Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and DeSean Jackson at his disposal, Wentz has the weapons to spread defenses thin at all levels. Sanders will face light boxes while running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league.
- Howie Roseman is a shrewd (de facto) GM. The last time he spent a pick on a running back within the first two rounds was never. Yes, the Eagles have deployed a committee backfield under Doug Pederson, but they also had yet to commit significant draft capital to a do-it-all back like Sanders.
Jordan Howard looms as an obstacle to early-down work, but it's certainly possible Sanders can beat him outright in training camp and lead Philadelphia's backfield committee as a rookie. At worst, Sanders starts the year as the favorite for passing-down work in a potentially elite offense.
Sigmund Bloom
Josh Jacobs by a good margin. Isaiah Crowell's season-ending Achilles injury only cinches this. I'll be listening and watching for signs of Miles Sanders taking over the Eagles backfield early on. Other instant candidates are Damien Harris if anything happens to Sony Michel. Ditto for Alexander Mattison if Dalvin Cook goes down again and Darrell Henderson if Todd Gurley's knee acts up. Jacobs was one of the best receiving backs in this class, so the answer doesn't change in PPR.
Andy Hicks
By far and away the answer has to be Josh Jacobs. Every other running back drafted in the first three rounds has solid to good competition at running back. Normal luck applying, the only thing that stops Jacobs being a starting fantasy back this year is if Oakland cannot hold and maintain leads. Barring the coaches not trusting Jacobs in pass protection, then Jacobs should be a better all-around back than Jalen Richard and is also the winner for PPR leagues.
Sigmund is right to mention the other backs if the starter goes down. An example of this is when Spencer Ware went down in preseason a couple of years back and Kareem Hunt dominated. At first, Hunt was only expected to be a bit contributor. Then he was the guy.
- Miles Sanders has to get past Jordan Howard, Corey Clement and maybe even Wendell Smallwood. None of these guys should be the lead back on their own but will get enough ball to frustrate those who draft Miles Sanders.
- Darrell Henderson has one of the best backs in the league ahead of him in Todd Gurley.
- David Montgomery has Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen to contend with. Cohen in particular wipes away any pretentions Montgomery has to a third-down role.
- Devin Singletary has just about every back over 30 ahead of him in Buffalo. LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore aren’t going to hand the ball over to a third-round rookie. Add in T.J. Yeldon, and Singletary is going to need a lot to break in front of him.
- Damien Harris has perhaps the hardest job of all with Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead all ahead of him. Harris definitely looks like the Patriots taking the best player available, but what will he do barring injury?
- The last player selected in the third round, Alexander Mattison, has a daunting task with Dalvin Cook ahead of him.
- Looking in the fourth round and beyond is a folly at this stage of the process.
Josh Jacobs just has to be upright to see the most carries on his team, the rest need luck or will have to beat out their competition significantly.
Dan Hindery
Regardless of format, Josh Jacobs is the guy. Jacobs has the perfect skill set to make a big fantasy impact. He has a solid build that should hold up well even if he gets a heavy workload. He is a powerful inside runner who should soak up all the goal line work for the Raiders. Plus, Jacobs is an above-average pass catcher who could catch 50 passes as a rookie.
While some will point to the Raiders offense as a concern, it is hard to imagine Oakland will be any worse than they were last year. In 2018, Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin combined for 1,299 total yards and 33 receptions. Those numbers feel like a floor for Jacobs if he can stay healthy. If the offense improves or Jacobs can steal some of Jalen Richard’s 81 targets, he has the potential for even bigger production.
Chad Parsons
Josh Jacobs is the easy answer considering his draft position, lack of depth chart competition considering Isaiah Crowell's injury, and likely usage upside. However, I will add Damien Harris to the mix, especially in non-PPR, as Sony Michel is a weekly question mark due to injury and already-known durability concerns/limitations, and Harris, if slotted in as the primary interior option for the Patriots, would instantly be a touchdown-per-game projection and threat for a string of RB1-level weeks.
