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The Top 10: Week 9

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 9
By Matt Waldman, October 28, 2019

The Top 10: Week 9
Photo: Imagn Images

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 8 Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:

  1. As detailed in last week's Gut Check, Emmanuel Sanders made an immediate impact and will make Jimmy Garopppolo and George Kittle more efficient. However, the hope is Sanders will accelerate Garoppolo's development and I think the tape shows mixed results with that promise.
  2. Tyrell Williams returned from his plantar fasciitis woes and performed well for fantasy purposes. However, he was three small adjustments from a huge game and it is his overthinking on late targets that hold him back from all-around excellence.
  3. Drew Brees returned from his thumb injury against the Cardinals and the Saints limited him to short passing to reduce the rate of compressed pockets but it was enough for a victory and Brees showed off great footwork that reflects the poise and control in his game on pro-level throws that even top prospects like the promising Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield lack.
  4. Tom Brady is a stud in the red zone; Jameis Winston isn't. The pump fake as a simple manipulation tool is often the difference that Brady has and Winston lacks to do the job.
  5. Derrick Henry had one of the best runs of the week in the NFL. I break down his footwork and vision on the play and explain why Ryan Tannehill may ultimately turn Henry into a late-season fantasy juggernaut. I also show where Ronald Jones has improved his footwork as he continues his gradual transition to a reliable NFL-caliber back.
  6. Shaq Barrett is healthy again and wreaking more havoc. Although outside linebackers can be inconsistent IDP options. The return of Jason Pierre Paul should only enhance Barrett's IDP value.
  7. Last week, I highlighted the Packers' emphasis on running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in the passing game. I show more wrinkles from this week's game and how it led to a huge night for Jones.
  8. Matt Moore is likely one-and-done as a starter, but in case he isn't, I want to put on the record why I thought he was a worthwhile replacement who was an upgrade to Chad Henne. The reasons are his pocket presence, footwork, and touch under pressure.
  9. Tight end is a streamable position and there are more candidates emerging on the fantasy radar:
    1. Charles Clay's versatility as a fullback, H-Back, and in-line tight end always a nice fit for Kliff Kingsbury's offense and we saw evidence of it against New Orleans.
    2. Ryan Griffin earns some quality targets on crossing routes where the Jets scheme him open in ways that the defense forgets about him but he can make the tough plays.
    3. Darren Fells' production has some risk of inconsistency due to the use of Jordan Akins, but he has the best rapport with Deshaun Watson and earns versatile usage.
    4. Ben Watson was a first-round pick because of his athletic tools and the old man still has enough to be a productive option in this passing game.
    5. Delanie Walker won't lose his job to Jonnu Smith but if his injury lingers or he has a relapse, Smith is a top option for your fantasy speed dial because of his skill up the seam and after the catch.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. LeSean McCoy was earning full-time starter touches against Green Bay until he fumbled in the third quarter, which re-opened the door for a committed with the competent Damien Willams.
    2. Nick Chubb with a pair of fumbles on consecutive plays—one a testament to a defensive effort and another a fluke—put the dagger in an already weak Browns offense.
    3. Devonta Freeman's red-zone fumble cost Atlanta an unlikely comeback.
    4. The Jets offensive line is missing assignments in multiple ways and not making Sam Darnold's development track any smoother than Baker Mayfield's.
    5. The Falcons defense remains a welcome wagon for prominent starters and worth consideration for fantasy fringe plays despite better play in the second half against Seattle.
    6. Famous Jameis makes more interceptions than Famous Amos makes cookies.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Kyle Shanahan using Emmanuel Sanders to pull up Jimmy Garoppolo by the bootstraps

Last week's Gut Check profiled the Sanders trade for the 49ers and Broncos personnel. I contend Sanders is in town to help immediately because Denver uses Shanahan's offense and the acclimation time will be minimal but it will also help Jimmy Garaoppolo and the 49ers young receivers to have a versatile veteran in the locker room to help them accelerate their collective learning curves.

After all, this offense has a great ground game but any strong defense with quality man-to-man coverage and a good blitz would have wrecked Shanahan's passing game without more weapons who can pose matchup issues like George Kittle. Sanders fills this void and has the experience and tools to help both the athletically talented Deebo Samuel and technically-skilled Dante Pettis reach their potential if they're willing to do the work.

This weekend's game against the Panthers demonstrates Sanders' almost seamless integration into this 49ers offense from the jump. This was the most technically-demanding throw and catch of the day between the new pair and it looked like the pair had a full summer to work together.

This is what happens when your new wide receiver's offensive coordinator on his former team was your quarterback's coach in your offense the year before and brought your offense to that team. Here's a quick-hitting red-zone route that we saw a month ago when Garoppolo delivered the game-winner to Dante Pettis.

As promised, Sanders played multiple receiver positions on the field and had a strong debut. While San Francisco has other talents capable of become complete packages as receivers, Sanders gives Garoppolo a finished product: a technically-sound, conceptually-advanced receiver with the physical skills to still take the top off the defense.

Now, it's up to Garoppolo to advance his game so he's delivering to the speed of instinct. From what I observed this weekend, there's promise it could happen but I think the bus ride to excellence will stop a few miles short of the desired destination.

Garoppolo excels at getting rid of the ball quickly under pressure and making quick adjustments under fire when he knows where to go with the ball.

Yet, there are instances where pressure short-circuits his thinking. This interception appears as if Garoppolo comes off an open read for a covered receiver as he feels the pocket compress. It's a completely illogical reaction that pressure can induce.

While concerning behavior, the 49ers offense is good enough to reduce these scenarios to the point that they're occasional annoyances rather than massive issues that will cost San Francisco multiple games. My greatest concern for Garoppolo is his reaction to ideal leverage on routes that should generate big plays. Garoppolo's delayed reaction to throw this ball at the right time is the common difference between quarterbacks that strong teams can succeed with like Alex Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Dak Prescott and great quarterbacks who can elevate the talent around them like Patrick Mahomes II, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.

If Garoppolo can learn to pull the trigger at the speed of instinct to make these plays, he could become a top quarterback in the NFL. Emmanuel Sanders is here to give Garoppolo the bootstraps to pull the quarterback upward, but I'm skeptical that he will get that far.

Even so, Sanders should deliver top-15 fantasy production, George Kittle should return to elite fantasy production down the stretch, and Garoppolo has QB1 upside against all but the top pass defenses on the remaining schedule. The Ravens and Saints are the only teams that will challenge him enough to consider another option—and more so due to scheme than the caliber of play.

2. Tyrell Williams is a few micro-adjustments away from Excellence

Tyrell Williams' return to the field from a plantar fascia injury was a welcome sight for the Raiders offense and the big-play perimeter threat delivered in a way that kept the Raiders and fantasy players in their games. Williams mostly earned routes where he didn't have to do much cutting, but he was always used most on these types of routes even with the Chargers.

Still, this sale of the post that converted to an out inspires some confidence that the rehab of the foot injury is trending in a good direction.

Accelerating to top speed also wasn't a problem for Williams, who wins on this deep over route for a second-half touchdown.

Williams performed well in his return for fantasy purposes, but there's more potential to his game that he is not tapping into that holds him back from excellence and elite fantasy production. The issue is late-target adjustments where he overthinks his process.

Williams earns separation on his fade route up the left sideline and turns clockwise to attack the ball against tight coverage. It's a good turn and the direction he should go. However, he doesn't complete the turn in this direction. He second-guesses his momentum at the catch-point and turns counterclockwise at the pull-down phase of the catch, which actually makes the catch tougher because he lands on the ball.

Either way, Williams would have to contend with the defender reaching for the ball, at least turn with the initial momentum and get your back to the ground so you can secure the ball to your chest. He overthought this play and didn't go with the flow, which cost him a long reception.

Williams also failed to trust the position of his hands late in the target phase of the play. Here's a fade where he initially has his hands in a good position to catch the front point of the ball but at the last second, he pulls his left arm further away and then, realizing he overadjusted, he tries to clap that hand back to the ball and inadvertently knocks the target away from the other hand.

Williams essentially seals the game for the Texans later in the drive when he has a chance to win this third-down target against former teammate Gareon Conley. However, he rotates his wrists late into the route from an ideal position to catch the front point of the ball to a position where his hands catch the fat middle of the ball on either side. As a result, he has a more difficult transition to secure the ball to his frame and opens the target up to Conley's efforts.

Williams is best-considered a fantasy WR3 with a WR1 ceiling against generous passing defenses. When he faces one-on-one coverage, his upside is a tier lower. Physically, he's an elite talent, but if he doesn't trust his technique and overthinks his strategy so late on plays, it's a difficult thing for him to overcome and elevate his game to match his athletic ability.

If someone is selling him as a WR1 value, he's not worth it. However, if you can get him as a WR3, I'd make the deal.

3. Drew Brees: The Destination where Kyler Murray (and Baker Mayfield) Wants to Travel

Drew Brees is back from the thumb injury and the Saints did a great job of transitioning him back to the field with a short and intermediate passing game where he didn't have to put his thumb in harm's way where he's trying to step into deep throws and oncoming defensive linemen. Still, Brees showed the time-tested expertise of patient and timely manipulation of the defense.

If you want to see where the likes of Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Kyler Murry need to travel, look no further than the feet and eyes of the grandmaster.

Some of Brees's skills aren't exclusive to elite quarterbacks. Here are Ryan Tannehill and Brees doing the same things on Sunday. The difference here is that Brees's receiver catches the ball.

Quality of footwork that moves with where the eyes are going should be one of the greatest takeaways you should get from this thread of plays. One of the best things you can look for when judging the progression of a young pocket passer, especially college quarterbacks, is how well they set their feet on "late throws," or targets where the passer must pivot late to the perimeter and deliver the ball fast.

The most technically-refined pocket passers can do what Brees does. Few young talents do it well—even top prospects like Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.

These points may not lead to direct correlations to fantasy production, but if you're one to seek the best choices for a late-round quarterback drafting strategy and you're stuck between choosing pocket guys without running skills (and Mayfield qualifies because he's no Russell Wilson as a runner), the most technically-sound options make these type of plays.

4. Tom Brady's Red-Zone Mastery: The destination where Jameis Winston Hasn't Been

Another area where you can up your knowledge of quarterback selection is red-zone performance. Certainly, statistics can be helpful. However, they can misfire in the way we as an industry touted the bejesus out of Baker Mayfield due to his red-zone data in 2018 and despite an upgrade of skill talent in 2019, Mayfield has been awful.

Are the lost pieces from the offensive line making a difference? To a small degree, the answer is yes, but the bigger issue is that Mayfield has always been a hesitant decision-maker as a progression reader. Progression reading is like a structured improvisation game where you have to interact with others and the timing is essential. Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense had more fill-in-the-blank plays where there was a veneer of progression reading that wasn't really the same because it was window-dressing to set up one read.

When asked to really be a decision-maker, Mayfield has been a stammerer. It doesn't mean he can't be a productive NFL quarterback, but the Brett Favre, Drew Brees, and Russell Wilson comparisons demonstrate a lack of understanding about what really underlies good quarterback play and what can and cannot be developed.

Film study rooted in an understanding of how quarterbacks process information and where the ball should be placed (and to the strictest standard—pinpoint accuracy) gives a clearer picture than accuracy charting data from sources where anywhere between 10-15 hourly employees without rigorous are not calibrated and cross-checked routinely to these standards.

So, if you cannot fully trust accuracy data when evaluating college quarterback prospects, what do you seek in addition to processing information pre- and post-snap as well as ball placement to the highest standard of the route break?

Two more things: How well the quarterback balances patience with urgency in the compressed space of the red zone and how quickly he can manipulate multiple defenders who are far more likely staring at him from the beginning to the end of the play.

One great manipulation ploy that separates chronic red-zone strugglers like Jameis Winston from the likes of Tom Brady is the pump fake. It doesn't have to be a violent, full-motion act. He can be as simple as raising the ball to the shoulder and bringing it back down.

Watch Brady and Winston in the red zone and you'll see what I mean.

Sometimes, holding the defense to one side with your eyes doesn't work. This is often true in the red zone where the quarterback is working with route pairs on one side. Using the ball is a sign of refined play. Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, and even Minshew and Stafford do this well.

5. RB Matters: Derrick Henry Footwork And Ronald Jones's Incremental Progress

If Ryan Tannehill continues delivering with consistency it will open up the run game for Derrick Henry, who is already playing well but the optimal run scenarios aren't always there for Tennessee to exploit his skills as consistently as they'd like. Even so, the promise of Henry at an elite level once again down the stretch is there.

This was one of the best running plays I saw all weekend from an NFL back.

Henry earned 75 yards on 16 carries against one of the two best run defenses (statistically) in the league. Oakland is on the Titans' schedule and they were the other top unit heading into Week 8. With Tannehill playing well enough to make defenses pay, the Chiefs, Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and Saints are still ripe for a healthy and productive dose from their John Henry of a running back.

Ronald Jones remains a work in progress. The Buccaneers don't have a healthy offensive line and even if it did, I'm not sure Winston does enough as a consistent player to set up the run. Still, Jones showed some progress with his footwork this weekend that should keep dynasty players hopeful about his development into a competent starting runner.

Expect an enhanced opportunity for a big-play run or two when facing the likes of the Cardinals and Falcons but the consistency will remain missing as he continues learning how to be a pro at his position. He's better, but not there yet.

6. Shaq Barrett is Healthy AGain and Resuming His Havoc Upon the League

After a couple of weeks dealing with an injury that clearly limited his play, Shaq Barrett is healthy and it's a beautiful sight for IDP players with him in big-play leagues.

Barrett also gets Jason Pierre-Paul back in the lineup, which will give him opportunities for clean-up sacks when Pierre-Paul earns a push that sends quarterbacks Barrett's way. This will happen with mobile passers like Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Drew Brees, Gardner Minshew, Matthew Stafford, and Jacoby Brissett on the schedule. At the tasty morsel of Atlanta's offensive line to this mix and Barrett should have more sacks and forced fumbles ahead.

7. Aaron Jones Night In KC

Last week, I profiled Aaron Jones's and Jamaal Williams's usage in the Green Bay passing game and why it bodes well for Aaron Rodgers despite the absence of Davante Adams. Jones has been the Packers' leading receiver since Adams got hurt and he went off like a primary receiver against the Chiefs.

Williams also got into the act on a well-improvised play between him and Rodgers.

As long as opposing defenses place linebackers on the running backs, Green Bay has the advantage. Because both are often on the field at the same time, especially in the red zone, look for one to earn a mismatch or the Packers to use it to its advantage in the run game.

Both backs are quality starts in three-runner lineups.

8. Matt Moore's Pocket Work

Moore is likely one-and-done as a starter in Kansas City, but with the daring Mahomes playing on an injured ankle that he continued tweaking and now a knee that popped out of place on the field two weeks ago, it's not out of the question that we'll see the veteran journeyman once again. Last week, I explained that Moore's strengths were his pocket presence and willingness to push the ball downfield. Last night, he showed these skills repeatedly and made this a close game, doing nothing individually to lose this contest.

As discussed, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce remained fantasy starters with their production under Moore with Hardman, Watkins, and Robinson the wildcards. Watkins earned decent volume and Hardman earned huge plays as the gadget. If Moore could have thrown the ball farther on one deep shot to Hill, we might have seen elite production from the Chiefs' best receiver.

Don't trade your Chiefs if Mahomes gets hurt again.

9. Tight Ends on the Radar

The streamable nature of the tight end position is at an all-time high. Let's examine more candidates worth your consideration heading into Week 9. The best option might be Darren Fells, who sees the field with Jordan Akins often enough that many would consider him a bad option in a unit filled with talented skill options in Houston.

This hasn't been the case, especially with injuries hurting the receiving corps and the scheme altering its philosophy to fewer vertical shots than recent years in order to protect Deshaun Watson. Fells has been a great weapon for the option-game and well worth your consideration if he's somehow still on your waiver wire.

The Texans continue giving Fells seam routes and over routes off play action that get him further downfield for larger chunk plays. Another option who gets lost behind linebackers and safeties who lines up in a variety of spots is Charles Clay. He seemed like a logical choice for sneaky-good production to begin the year but didn't see the field until recently.

Clay earned 88 yards on 3 catches against the Saints and benefitted from throwbacks and other routes where he sneaked behind the defense.

Clay has a compelling opportunity to become the second or third option in this offense due to Christian Kirk's and running back injuries and the lack of consistent talent playing on the perimeter. Ryan Griffin is another option worth your consideration because opponents are more considered with the Jets' outside receivers, and Adam Gase does some creative things to sneak Griffin into the middle of the field where he has just enough acceleration to earn bigger gains as he did on a touchdown after the catch against the Jaguars on Sunday.

Griffin also makes tough catches on trust throws when given the opportunity. He's earning Sam Darnold's confidence.

The problem with Griffin might be the eventual return of Chris Herndon. Still, he's worth short-term consideration and continued monitoring if you find yourself desperate at the position. Another short-term producer due to the impending return of starter, Delanie Walker is Jonnu Smith. Quick enough to win the seam and strong and agile enough to beat the first, and sometimes the second defender, in the open field, Smith might be the best option of the four I'm suggesting in this segment on the sole basis of skills.

Ben Watson is also a consideration because he's inspiring trust throws from Tom Brady and still has the athletic skills that remind us why he was a first-round pick several years ago.

In review, Fells is the safest, Clay is a compelling match with high upside and Griffin and Smith are short-term plays while their teammates are still out. Watson is worth an addition but his potential volume is still iffy.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 8

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: LeSean McCoy.

There were individuals with more egregious mistakes (see below) but when it comes to fantasy impact, McCoy's might be the worst. McCoy was dominating the Chiefs' usage at the position for most of three quarters until he fumbled the ball during a 17-17 tie and saw the bench in favor of Damien Williams.

As I covered earlier in the season, Reid has a history of incrementally assessing his committee backfields and gradually rewarding the best performer with the featured role. McCoy was earning that reward this week until he fumbled the ball. There's a real possibility Reid will keep the door open for a committee just as he was about to shut it.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:

  • Nick Chubb: The NFL's leading rusher had back-to-back fumbles. His own teammate kicked the ball loose on a fluke play in wet conditions and then followed up with a huge run where Jon Jones made an incredible play. Chubb has three fumbles this year—three more than he's had the past two years of football. Don't worry about his fantasy value but his turnovers killed the potential for this to be a close game on Sunday.
  • Falcons Defense: The pass rush and back-seven made timely plays during the second half of the Seattle game but still gave up 24 points in the first half and two of those scores were red-zone mistakes by the back seven's confusion about who would cover D.K. Metcalf.
  • Devonta Freeman: Although he had a good yardage day and two Alex Mack holding calls held him back from surpassing 100 yards rushing, Freeman fumbled away a possession late in the game inside the Seattle five when he tried to extend the ball closer to the goal line. No turnover here and Atlanta turns this into a ballgame.
  • Jets Offensive Line: Missed calls and poor overall play contributed to 8 sacks and 3 interceptions. Sam Darnold's development plan is in a paper shredder.
  • Jameis Winston: Famous Amos is a mass-producer of cookies. Famous Jameis is one interception shy of a baker's dozen after seven games. Route mix-ups and erratic throws are frequently on display. If Winston isn't playing out this string in Tampa and finds his way back to the organization in 2020, I'll be shocked.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Davante Adams Jordan Akins Josh Allen Tom Brady Jacoby Brissett Derek Carr Nick Chubb Sam Darnold Darren Fells Devonta Freeman Jimmy Garoppolo Ryan Griffin Chad Henne Derrick Henry Chris Herndon Tyreek Hill Aaron Jones Travis Kelce Christian Kirk George Kittle Patrick Mahomes II Marcus Mariota Baker Mayfield Gardner Minshew Kyler Murray Dante Pettis Jason Pierre-Paul Dak Prescott Aaron Rodgers Josh Rosen Deebo Samuel Emmanuel Sanders Jonnu Smith Matthew Stafford Ryan Tannehill Deshaun Watson Damien Williams Jamaal Williams Tyrell Williams Russell Wilson Jameis Winston

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