Mission
The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.
I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.
The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).
As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.
Straight, No Chaser: Week 7 Cliff's Notes
The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:
- Ryan Tannehill and Corey Davis show signs of rapport that might be promising for the second half of the season—there was also good timing with A.J. Brown and Taje Sharpe. The crisp passing and Tannehill's ability to check-down to his tight ends and Adam Humphries kept the Titans on schedule and opened the ground game for Derrick Henry.
- The Packers offense will be a fantasy force once Davante Adams returns because the coaching staff knows how to use its players—Sunday's implementation of the Aaron Jones-Jamaal Williams running back tandem is a great example.
- Josh Jacobs and the offensive line are an emerging fantasy force and putting Jon Gruden one step closer to fulfilling his plan with Oakland.
- Darren Waller is a full-field receiver and the Raiders were wise to sign him to an extension.
- Marvin Jones, Jr. scored four touchdowns—two against Xavier Rhodes—and he joins Jerry Rice and Sterling Sharpe as one of three receivers to every have two, four-touchdown performances. The trust Matt Stafford has in Jones makes the receiver a weekly consideration despite the inconsistency that comes with the difficulty level of many of the targets delivered Jones's way.
- NFL and college football need to revamp safety rules and force organizations to create more space between the end lines and the stadium walls.
- Gerald Everett and Mike Gesicki are two tight ends worth your consideration during by weeks. Everett is potentially a weekly starter. Gesicki came off his best day in the NFL and it could have been better.
- The early returns from the Jalen Ramsey and Marcus Peters trades: The Rams used Ramsey on Julio Jones man-to-man and coupled with timely blitzes to shut down Atlanta on third-down, and Peters baited Russell Wilson into a pick-six that changed the tenor of the game.
- Other observations from Week 7:
- Matt Moore is worth a waiver selection for two QB leagues and should deliver high-end QB2 production with more QB1 upside than the schedule appears because the Packers, Vikings, Titans, and Chargers are vulnerable to ways the Chiefs can blend Moore's strengths with those of its offense.
- Miami running back Mark Walton impressed me far less than the holes the Dolphins offensive line opened. Expecting Miami to deliver consistent offensive production is a fool's errand, but if you have room to add Walton as a speculative investment or true deseperation bye-week option, he might show more. Otherwise, I'm not making him a priority.
- I didn't have the type of clear video evidence I like to share with readers, but I am beginning to think that Frank Gore still has better acceleration than Devin Singletary. This may have to do Singletary's acclimation to the NFL and not his actual physical skill, but I remain skeptical about him long-term.
- Dolphins rookie receiver Preston Williams should remain on your long-term radar as a future fantasy starter.
- Philip Rivers seems 1-2 steps from his game teetering off the edge of the career cliff. A lot of passes he should have delivered with greater velocity did not reach the mark on-time.
- Chase Edmonds is essentially Austin Ekeler for the Cardinals.
- This week's Fresh Fish:
- Melvin Gordon's consecutive fumbles at the goal line snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
- You live and die with Carson Wentz's pocket play. Two fumbles deep in Eagles' territory on Sunday night killed Philadelphia.
- The Falcons defense remains a welcome wagon for prominent starters and worth consideration for fantasy fringe plays.
- Mark Andrews dropped three passes, including a potential touchdown. Two drops were due to indecisive route-running.
- The history of data may signal that there will be a regression with the points the Cardinals allow against tight ends, but as even the data analysts understand, if you "analyze the men and the scheme rather than the numbers," you may find that the problem is more widespread than one player.
- The slop-fest in Washington only revealed that Adrian Peterson remains a talented running back and that George Kittle is a decent plodder on a bad track. Both teams had difficulty throwing the ball. Remain patient with Dante Pettis.
For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.
1. Signs of Emerging Rapport Between Ryan Tannehill, Corey Davis, And the Titans Offense
Veteran backup quarterbacks often have an advantage with their first starts when they earn a week of first-team reps to prepare for the opponent because the opponent lacks any recent tape to scout that backup. We should keep this in mind when assessing Ryan Tannehill against the Chargers—especially the Chargers because injuries have decimated this defensive unit the most.
Still, Tannehill delivered impressive plays on Sunday, spreading the ball among eight different receivers and establishing a promising rapport with Corey Davis.
Third example pic.twitter.com/ZUeMzYdTsA
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
One more on third down pic.twitter.com/8SndHXcbm2
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
Tannehill also showed strong placement up the seam to his tight end Jonnu Smith.
Nice placement on seam route by Ryan Tannehill pic.twitter.com/0S07JwMIM3
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
Marcus Mariota's replacement displayed the velocity and tight-window accuracy that you want from a starter. In case you're wondering, Tannehill interception resulted from a hit while throwing the ball that sent the pass skyward near the line of scrimmage and was not an issue with reading coverage. As has been the case for much of Tannehill's career, he hangs in the pocket too long when he should throw the ball away and there are signs that he'll continue exhibiting issues against defensive pressure that forced him out of Miami.
These flaws don't change Tannehill's field vision, accuracy, placement, and timing that haven't been as prevalent in Mariota's game. Tannehill saw the field clearer and as a result, got the ball out earlier to his options. Jonnu Smith, A.J. Brown, Tajae Sharpe, and Adam Humphries all benefited from Tannehill's performance.
Brown remains the receiver to monitor closely because every target comes with the added potential for a big play. He's routinely earning tough yards after the catch and appears poised to break a longer gain.
The Buccaneers, Panthers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Colts, Raiders, Texans, and Saints remain on the schedule. The Jaguars, Colts, and Saints offer the greatest challenge in terms of pressure unless Buccaneers' outside linebacker Shaq Barrett returns to 100 percent health next week. The other four opponents should enhance Tannehill's potential to deliver starter production and raise the fantasy profile of the starting skill players, including a ground game that benefitted from Tannehill's performance.
Tannehill may not be a primary consideration for most fantasy teams but I think there are reasons (above) to believe he'll make Davis, Brown, and Delaine Walker (when he returns) fantasy-relevant and also resurrect Derrick Henry's potential for elite production.
2. The Usage of Aaron Jones And Jamaal Williams Is a Good Sign for the Packers' Offense
The Aaron Rodgers-Matt LaFleur relationship got off to a slow start on and off the field. After five games, Rodgers was 19th in fantasy points among quarterbacks and average 7.26 yards per attempt. After the past two weeks, Rodgers is seventh and averaging 8.08 yards per attempt—his highest average per attempt in five seasons despite injuries that have eliminated or limited Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Geronimo Allison from the lineup.
The passing game is becoming more efficient and explosive, thanks to creative play-calling and scheme design from LaFleur. There's no better demonstration of this creativity and adaptability than with Green Bay's usage of running back's Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams—both excellent receivers with different skill sets as runners.
LaFleur uses Jones and Williams on the field at the same time and it's creating issues for opposing defenses
More Williams-Jones tandem in the backfield pic.twitter.com/xIiOxGEfjD
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
When not on the field together, LaFleur is establishing Jones as a consistent receiving threat, especially downfield. This distracts opponents from Williams who is often in the backfield next to Rodgers and considered primarily a pass protector when both options are on the field at the same time.
The best overall receiver of the 2017 running back draft class was Christian McCaffrey. However, the running back with the best overall hand-eye coordination at every range of the field was Jones. Despite Jones' uncharacteristic drop in Week 6, the Packers know that he's a weapon in the vertical game.
Aaron Rodgers with 3 seconds to throw—TD for RB Aaron Jones pic.twitter.com/vz7dgHZCBs
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Jones is also becoming a reliable underneath threat and repeatedly made catches of targets thrown a little behind him—often difficult situations for less-skilled options.
Another good catch on a throw behind him. pic.twitter.com/Ok4dOjBt55
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
Using Jones as a receiver, especially in trips alignments or from the backfield on the tight end's side of the formation where the tight end draws the cornerback, there's an enhanced likelihood that Jones draws a linebacker as his coverage, which is an automatic mismatch. This also allows Green Bay to use Williams as a runner against lighter boxes or match him up with a linebacker or safety, not in an optimal position to cover him in the flat.
Williams lacks top speed, but he frequently makes the first man miss and requires more than one defender to bring him to the ground. Williams is the superior pass protector but Jones has developed into a good option, which also allows LaFleur to utilize versatile fullback Dan Vitale as a receiver.
Nice block by Aaron Jones pic.twitter.com/D6C29o5ZHB
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
Despite Williams's 100-yard outing in Week 6, I told Audible listeners that Jones remains the greatest threat with the most consistent volume in the Packers' run game moving forward. Jones had a meltdown in that game with the drop and a fumble and Green Bay had the luxury of going to Williams.
Jones projects as a weekly RB2 with RB1 upside whereas Williams projects as an RB3 with RB2 upside with Jones healthy and occasional RB1 upside when Jones isn't. Rodgers' rise in production despite the loss of Adams and limited use from Allison and Valdes-Scantling is a product of this play-action passing game and the diversification of targets that have made Green Bay far less predictable to opposing defenses.
Because Allison and Valdes-Scantling delivered significant contributions on Sunday despite not being 100 percent healthy, it's a good sign that they will be healthy enough soon. When Adams is ready, this offense at full capacity should be dangerous.
Rodgers was probably a buy-low. He's not anymore.
3. Josh Jacobs And the Oakland Offensive Line Are An Emerging Force
Football analysts who lean significantly on the use of data to the point of substituting it for the eye test questioned Josh Jacobs' value as an early-round pick and future feature back. Some of them wondered if Jacobs had a large enough sample size to demonstrate his value and if he was a pro talent with starter potential, why did Alabama head coach Nick Saban use him as a committee back?
For Alabama, platooning Jacobs was a matter of recruiting. The Crimson Tide had four backs with NFL-caliber skills. In order to continue drawing backs with these skills and keep them from transferring, Saban has to give them enough playing time for the NFL to notice them.
Jacobs had limited playing time, but there was enough to see that he was an excellent prospect at his position.
After watching Jacobs in the NFL, it's clear that his vision, footwork, balance, and burst are all translating well. It's also clear that the addition of guard Richie Incognito, the trade for tackle Trent Brown, and the development of tackle Kolton Miller has made Oakland a formidable rushing attack.
Excellent patience and feet at all three levels of the defense on this run that puts Josh Jacobs over the 100-yard mark. pic.twitter.com/3pELkmClDF
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
Jacobs can run over and run around opponents—and best yet, he shows the patience to set them up like a young Frank Gore. The fact that Oakland's offense is competing without Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams is a testament to the time that Derek Carr has earned in the passing game because the film and the data are clear that Carr's production is great without pressure and awful with it.
Jon Gruden has been the butt of jokes from the football media because he traded Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper, and had an unsuccessful arrangement with Antonio Brown. However, the jokes really began when analysts labeled Gruden a schematic dinosaur because he mocked the fundamentalist data-thumping contingent of football writers.
Gruden and Mike Mayock may not build a complete team that can stay healthy, and prove the doubters wrong (the defense needs work) but Jacobs and this offensive line is buying Carr time to make plays and Gruden, the much-maligned talent evaluator, stole a weapon from the Baltimore Ravens last fall who is also paying dividends...
4. Darren Waller Is Becoming An Elite Fantasy Weapon
This summer, I profiled the Raiders' early use of Darren Waller during the backstretch of the 2018 season. Most of Waller's opportunities came on underneath targets where the defense didn't keep track of him. Even so, it was apparent that Waller's physical talents could lead to sustainable volume if Gruden could exploit those abilities as part of an integrated and sustainable offensive attack.
Coming off a week where Waller signed a contract extension as the third-most productive receiving tight end in fantasy football, the Raiders are happy with their young talent's efforts and the offense's ability to use him.
There's no doubt that Oakland has expanded Waller's role in the offense.
Waller TD pic.twitter.com/K20IZQlRFD
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
Enough of Waller's targets come as an in-line tight end that it's difficult to key on him as a big receiver. Part of the fun is that Oakland uses reserve tight end Derek Carrier as a fullback who can both block and work the intermediate range of the field. Carrier can often work behind Waller and block the opponent over Waller when Waller releases upfield. Carrier also gets easy yards up the field in the same way we saw the Packers use Dan Vitale (see above) .
Consider Waller as an emerging Jimmy Graham-like option for the Raiders. He may never become a dependable in-line blocker like Travis Kelce or George Kittle but the Raiders' expanded usage of him as a receiver has proven that he's here to stay.
5. Marvin Jones, Jr. Week In Detroit (And a Rest-Of-The-Season Outlook)
The Lions lost to the Vikings on Sunday but the Football Gods proclaimed it Marvin Jones, Jr. Day and it helped Detroit stay competitive in the contest. Jones joined Jerry Rice and Sterling Sharpe as one of three receivers with at least two games with four touchdowns during their careers. If I recall, Jones earned his first four-touchdown game with Andy Dalton under center as a Bengal against the New York Jets.
Almost as impressive as joining this exclusive company was the fashion in which Jones earned these scores—two against the always-physical, Xavier Rhodes and he showed off his run-blocking prowess during the game against defensive end Everson Griffen.
Nice seal of Everson Griffen by Jones pic.twitter.com/RovZdH0Wdi
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
TD 3 for Jones with dive outside to set up back-shoulder with Harrison Smith over top and Mike Hughes tight. pic.twitter.com/NgiCMJwngt
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
I think this low target on the fade was planned against Rhodes for Marvin Jones. TD4 pic.twitter.com/g2dLY3F7cH
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Prior this week Jones was the 46th-ranked PPR receiver in fantasy leagues. After this four-touchdown outburst? Jones is 14th overall. There's a compelling argument that Jones's production will once again regress to that of a bye-week matchup play. That's what he was before Sunday.
However, Jones's skills and targets suggest that Sunday was closer to what Jones should have been doing this year than the box score suggests. Jones is earning targets and converting them, but it's the targets he's not converting that has suppressed his potential value.
Jones's target's per game is only 25th among receivers, his reception percentage is 12th among receivers with at least 35 targets. Prior to last week, his percentage was 14th among receivers with at least 25 targets.
Against the Eagles, he stumbled out of a break on a double-move that cost him a long reception he would normally make. He got open on a slant in the end zone the following week against the Chiefs and Matt Stafford overthrew him. The Packers interfered with him on a deep target (but one of several bad no-calls) and he caught a red-zone pass at the Packers' two.
At this stage of the season, these four plays prior to Sunday cost Jones at least an additional 15-20 PPR points. Jones could have easily been in the 26-31 range of PPR rankings prior to last week—a viable fantasy WR3.
This is probably the most accurate assessment of his value moving forward because the targets are there and his rate of efficiency with them is strong but the biggest plays have been the biggest misses by his quarterback or a fluke in execution. We often discuss regression to the mean but there's also the concept of players being due.
Marvin Jones has been due. While capable of earning WR1 production, considering him a WR3 with a schedule that includes the Giants, Raiders, and Washington is wise.
6. Tight Confines: My Annual NFL Safety Rant
Adam Thielen's touchdown and subsequent injury lead me to what is becoming an annual rant about a specific aspect of player safety than the NFL can address—more space between the end zone and the stands.
Thielen TD but time for the annual rant about NFL and FBS stadiums and the space between the end line and wall.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Thielen hurt hand and more so his hammy. pic.twitter.com/MPfkcsJqbz
While it's possible that the rate of injuries that occur in this space is lower than my anecdotal observation as someone who watches hundreds of NFL and college games a year for a living, I'd like to see a study prove this isn't an elevated danger for players. Thielen likely hurt himself trying to adjust his body to avoid contact with the individuals in this space as well as the wall.
It may cost organizations thousands of dollars to eliminate the seats and widen the free space behind the end zones, but that kind of change is more like a wad of singles relative to the billions the owners make annually.
Do the right thing.
7. Gerald Everett And Mike Gesicki: Two Tight Ends; Differing Considerations
Need to trade for a tight end with promise but don't want to overpay? Gerald Everett is a worthwhile consideration. The Rams have a decent schedule of remaining opponents who are vulnerable to tight ends in the receiving game and Sean McVay has increased Everett's profile in the Rams' aerial attack.
Everett had eight total targets during the first three weeks of the season. Since Week 4, Everett has earned 34 targets, including 11 against Seattle—a team he'll face again this year.
Everett has the speed to win up the seam, threaten the post, and dominate on corner routes. When given a complete mismatch as he earned against UFA Jamal Carter this weekend in Atlanta, he'll even toast a cornerback on a go route.
Goff with the presnap adjustment with pass pro and hits Gerald Everett pic.twitter.com/qv0sHUYr4I
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
One of Everett's best assets as a receiver since his years at South Alabama has been his work after the catch. He routinely makes the first man miss or breaks the first tackle. He often breaks multiple tackles. It makes him a worthwhile option in the Rams' oft-used screen game.
More Everett and a TD...nice kick out by Whitworth on screen pic.twitter.com/xYkyfbRJc4
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Everett has been a top-12 tight end in PPR leagues for a few weeks so if you've waited to act on him until he's shown sustained production, you'll likely have to pay for him as at least low-end TE1. His production since Week 4 has been better than every tight end not named Austin Hooper, so you may have to bet on him as a premium player along the lines of Waller, Hooper, Kittle, and Kelce.
If you're hoping to find the next Everett-type option, Mike Gesicki has been the No.15 PPR tight end for the past two weeks. One of the things that the Dolphins have done well during this time has targeted the third-year tight end on routes that match his skills.
And another that counts pic.twitter.com/4cthM5MPTQ
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
If this first catch counted, Gesicki would have been the 10th-most productive tight end during the past two weeks. Since most of us don't deem this position as one of great importance in most lineup formats, I'd recommend adding Gesicki off the waiver wire ahead of paying a premium for Everett. However, you know your formats best and I like providing a range of options.
8. THE Jalen Ramsey And Marcus Peters Trades: Early Returns
Speaking of the Rams, Jalen Ramsey made his debut for Los Angeles and earned his first shot at Julio Jones. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has to be happy all around.
The Rams thwarted Matt Ryan and the Falcons' vulnerable offensive line with timely third-down blitzes paired with Ramsey matched man-to-man on Jones. If you've watched Ryan weekly as I have for the past decade, you know that he doesn't shy away from targeting his best receivers due to the presence of a specif cover corner.
Of course, if that corner has disrupted said receiver, that's a different story. We saw both outcomes on Sunday on third downs and the Rams easily won third-down situations on Sunday, sacking Ryan five times and forcing a fumble.
Another third down, another Ramsey-Jones matchup where the Rams apply pressure pic.twitter.com/Zo5SRpHSh7
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Ramsey also forced a fumble with a hit on Devonta Freeman that ultimately killed an Atlanta drive in the second half.
Jalen Ramsey forced fumble on Devonta Freeman. RB recovers pic.twitter.com/5oh2z6SolZ
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Jones beat Ramsey for a long gain later in the game but you can tell that Ramsey thought Jones was running a shorter route and purposely giving a free release to play trail coverage.
Jones wins the go route for 36 on Ramsey pic.twitter.com/vxwDdUKIRR
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 20, 2019
Overall, Ramsey has an excellent debut and should help this Rams defense maintain tighter game scripts, which will help Sean McVay run the offense to his liking.
One of the players the Rams gave up to get Ramsey was cornerback Marcus Peters. Known for his undisciplined play, Peters is one of the top ballhawks in the league since 2015. The Ravens prefer aggressive play and want a rotation of tough, man-to-man corners.
Peters, for all his mistakes, fits this profile. In his debut against the Seahawks, Peters did something no one has done this season—bait and intercept Russell Wilson.
Marcus Peters baits and hooks a big 🎣 pic.twitter.com/E9RGuycB24
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 21, 2019
This pick-six changed the tenor of the game. Look for Peters to generate big plays against the Bengals, Texans, Rams, 49ers, Bills, and Jets—all opponents on the schedule with quarterbacks Peters knows well and/or have a tendency to eye-ball perimeter receivers and take his bait.
9. More From the Notebook
Matt Moore will sustain productive play from the Chiefs' offensive stars. When Miami went 10-6 in 2016 and Moore had decent surrounding talent, he had three multi-touchdown games in three starts, including a four-touchdown performance against the Jets in Week 15.
He has a reputation for executing the entire playbook and delivering from compressed pockets. Expect Moore to generate big plays in Andy Reid's offense because of the scheme and weaponry, even if not at the rate we expect from Patrick Mahomes II.
Matt Moore and Andy Reid getting more acquainted pic.twitter.com/TZ8kEdKh67
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 18, 2019
Reid does a good job blending the strengths of his key personnel to the scheme. Expect no less with Moore at the helm. Translating this to fantasy leagues: Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be low-end WR1/TE1 performers, respectively. The ground game should earn an uptick in volume. And, at least one supporting receiver will become a reliable WR3/bye-week option but we won't know until we see whom Moore favors.
Miami running back Mark Walton repeatedly worked through wide-open creases and ran through reaches to his body on a consistent basis against the Bills. This sounds impressive until you realize that "reaches" are on the lowest part of the totem pole for contact against ball carriers. Hands slapping on an arm, thigh, or calf aren't real signs of power.
I was more impressed with Miami's offensive line for creating these holes. Expecting consistent production from Walton and this line is a fool's errand, given the pervasive belief that this team is tanking. Still, if you need a desperation starter to cover a bye-week, Walton is earning the volume and benefitting from the line.
Beyond that, I haven't seen enough adversity to judge Walton's current performance as a pro. He ran hard in college but had issues with setting up zone runs and didn't show the power that many often attributed to his game. Since he's in a gap-heavy scheme, this might prove a better match.
I didn't have enough video evidence to show a clear-cut rationale behind it, but my initial impressions of Devin Singletary in the NFL is that he's not quick enough to sustain starter-level play. It's possible that Singletary's acclimation process to the speed and complexity of the league is slowing his processing and execution on the field. This is often the case with rookie runners.
However, the added factors of Singletary testing slow in every metric—even slow by the standard of reserve runners—complicate the evaluation. If there's a back who could deliver beyond these physical expectations and prove the exception, it's a player like Singletary who possesses excellent vision, contact balance for his size, and refined footwork.
I'm skeptical but I can see the potential upside.
Preston Williams is a buy-low from any dynasty player who doesn't know what he truly has in the receiver. He's making plays against tight coverage and earning separation with some promising route techniques. Gauge your competition to see if they have linked Williams' value to the Dolphins' current, self-imposed misfortunes.
Chase Edmonds looks a lot like Austin Ekeler. I told Ross Tucker this a few weeks ago and he's earning more play to show it with a greater sample. Edmonds has a solid contact balance, starter-level burst, and the footwork and vision of a high-volume contributor.
He has strong upside as a second-contract starter but let's remember that this rarely happens in the NFL. It's more likely that he earns a complementary role for 1-2 other teams during his career but never becomes an every-down option. Use that perspective appropriately as a fantasy manager.
Philip Rivers still makes strong reads and throws excellent touch passes on corner routes, deep crossers, and up the seam. However, his processing and execution of plays while under pressure lack the necessary velocity when off balance and he's missing more passes that he used to make.
This could be a problem isolated to this weekend, but it's making me wonder if he's closing in on the age cliff.
10. FRESH FISH: Week 6
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.
Special of the Week: Melvin Gordon.
GAME OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let’s GO!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/s6NnQoBnrU
— CHANNEL TITANS (@CHANNEL_TITANS) October 20, 2019
Gordon fumbled on consecutive carries, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The first attempt Gordon fumbled trying to extend the ball across the goal line, which meant he lacked control when the ball broke then plain. When he recovered the fumble, he was not in the end zone.
The second fumble he lost to Jurrell Casey at the one. It has been a difficult year for Gordon, who saw himself as worthy of elite running back money and no one agreed with him. Now, there's enough reason to wonder if he's even the best running back on his team.
Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:
- Mark Andrews: Andrews dropped three passes in this game, including a potential touchdown. He seemed unsure of his routes on two of these plays and earned time on the bench.
- Falcons Defense: A permanent resident until proven otherwise, Atlanta is giving up a lot of yardage over the middle and up the rails. Expect big weeks from most consistent starters and consider fringe fantasy plays. Slot receivers, tight ends, or backs with receiving skill are all sneaky-good plays here.
- Carson Wentz: Live by the risk-taker, die by the risk-taker. Wentz is the ultimate tough guy who is too tough for his own good. He lost two fumbles deep in Eagles' territory and gave the Cowboys easy scoring position. He also threw an interception in this blow-out loss.
- Cardinals back-seven vs. Linebackers: Does the data history show that these type of matchup calls regress to the mean and no longer become a thing? Sure. However, it's also noted in these studies that they're banking on defenses to use different matchups with individual players after the individual has proven inept--say, the Cardinals cutting D.J. Swearinger Sr, who stunk against tight ends. The problem is that covering tight ends is both a man and a zone responsibilty and the reserve safety isn't as good as Swearinger and the linebacker Hassan Reddick has also proven vulnerable. I'm sticking with this idea to start tight ends of note against the Cardinals until further notice.
Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.