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The Top 10: Week 5

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 5
By Matt Waldman, September 30, 2019

The Top 10: Week 5
Photo: USA Today Sports

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with the wrong process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 4 Cliff's Notes

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points:

  1. Nick Chubb's re-vamped usage against the Ravens reveals that he, not Baker Mayfield, is the centerpiece of the Browns' offense.
  2. Gardner Minshew's exciting pocket management is what the Browns thought it selected when it drafted Mayfield.
  3. Leonard Fournette's punishing style can make opposing defenses tap out when he earns the volume that Minshew is enhancing.
  4. Linebacker Shaq Barrett is off to a great start with the Buccaneers, and he's showing signs of being a complete player.
  5. Unless you're expecting him to be the solution, Jared Goff is not the problem—and he possesses several high-end traits and remains a fantasy value.
  6. Courtland Sutton had a strong outing against Jacksonville, but his receiving technique remains a work in progress.
  7. Dawson Knox's talent is for real, but he's not yet fantasy gold due to target volume and the inconsistent nature of Josh Allen.
  8. Chris Godwin is emerging into a primary receiver in his own right.
  9. On both sides fo the ball, the Lions are mentally tough, physical, and talented—and that's good for your fantasy squads.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. Josh Allen's immaturity as a decision-maker remains a multi-year project.
    2. The back-seven of the Falcons defense has difficulty setting angles and tackling in the open field.
    3. The Cardinals defense remains a haven for fantasy tight end play.
    4. Aqib Talib isn't playing physical enough and giving up receptions that lead you to wonder if he's playing hurt.
    5. Sidney Jones and the Eagles cornerbacks were bailing too early and gave up a lot of easy plays to Davante Adams on Thursday night.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Nick Chubb, Not Baker Mayfield, Is the Centerpiece of the Cleveland Offense

The Mayor of Baltimore proclaimed it "Nick Chubb Day," after he owned the Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Chubb scored three touchdowns, including an 88-yard run that places him first and third among backs with the longest runs in Browns' history.

Chubb is a feature back. Yes, we'll see Kareem Hunt earn playing time when he returns from suspension, but Chubb is the superior talent and barring ludicrous decision-making that the Cleveland organization has a history of, Hunt is feature-back insurance that will only be used in a supporting role to showcase him as trade bait as long as Chubb remains healthy.

Chubb makes a lot of runs look far easier than they are because he's physically not far from Saquon Barkley's athletic prowess while boasting a maturer understanding of how to run the football.

Chubb has already proven a worthwhile receiver despite those who scouting him based on quantity, rather than quality, of his work. He's also a sturdy pass protector.

Chubb and the Browns ran roughshod over Baltimore because Cleveland's staff figured out that, schematically, it's best to maximize Chubb's potential rather than Baker Mayfield, who is not yet equipped to be the centerpiece of the offense. The best way to get the most from Chubb is to use more offensive alignments with Mayfield under center.

In the week's leading up to the Baltimore game, Cleveland used a lot of shotgun—Mayfield's base alignment in Texas A&M and Oklahoma's offenses. However, shotgun is not the easiest alignment for running the football. It's more difficult for offensive linemen to block from a two-point stance of shotgun because they have no inherent leverage against their opponents and they lose the battle as soon as the ball is snapped.

Unless your offensive line is filled with elite talents, running from the shotgun is essentially hoping that your unit will wall-off its opponents and not get pushed backward. Chubb has to work harder to reach the line of scrimmage on shotgun runs and has more decision-making options closed off from him because he's taking the exchange heading east-west.

When taking the exchange downhill—as running backs do when the quarterback is under center—a runner can choose to work in either directional laterally or downhill. In shotgun, that back only has two options before we even see if the defense cuts off another with early penetration thanks to the inherent disadvantage offensive linemen have when working from a two-point stance.

To make matters worse, Cleveland used little misdirection before the snap when in shotgun, which made it easier for opponents to tee-off on the run game, attack Mayfield in the pocket, and it minimized the potential of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry—two skilled ball carriers. This weekend, Cleveland not only figured how to maximize the potential of Chubb and the Browns offensive line with single-back sets and misdirection but also create lighter defensive boxes with diversified alignment choices and personnel.

Making Chubb the centerpiece also helps Baker Mayfield. Some quantitative purists will argue this point if the production from under center doesn't exceed production from the shotgun, but the threat of Chubb running downhill enhances the believability of run fakes due to the three-point stance of linemen that will place the defense at a disadvantage if it guesses wrong with run/pass.

Mayfield still delivered quick-hitting passes off three-step drops and the play-fakes were more effective. Working from shotgun or pistol works better for Lamar Jackson because he's a true rushing threat with breakaway skill. Defenses don't respect Mayfield's running like Jackson, Russell Wilson, or even Carson Wentz.

It's why shotgun and pistol are predominantly used in Baltimore's offense and Jackson is the centerpiece. Chubb is the most dangerous weapon because he's the most physically-talented and best decision-maker at his position in the offense relative to any other offensive option. Letting him run downhill is like cocking a loaded gun and pointing it at the defense.

Making him run from shotgun is like cocking a loaded gun, putting in Mayfield's holster, and asking him to make quick-draw, trick shots to protect his offense. He's lucky he still has his toes. And when Cleveland wants to use trick shots, it will be less predictable and more dynamic.

Although the Ravens run defense is more of a paper champion that its prior stats revealed, Cleveland's adjustments are excellent. It will actually give the Browns, Chubb, Mayfield, and its receivers the opportunity to play to their projected fantasy value.

2. Gardner Minshew's Pocket Mojo

After watching Minshew work the pocket in dangerous situations and trying to stomach the Brett Favre and Russell Wilson comparisons for Mayfield, I think Minshew is what the Browns thought it was drafting when it selected Mayfield—at least from the pocket. Mayfield gets lost in a messy pocket when he can't climb in a pre-planned rhythm of the designed play or bail to his right. This is not the case for Minshew.

Minshew lacks Mayfield's arm but he's much closer to Tom Brady or Wilson when maneuvering a pocket than Mayfield. The fact that he bought this kind of time against the likes of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb is compelling—even if Vic Fangio's system is earning criticism. These examples above are more about Minshew than Fangio.

I have doubts that Nick Foles regains his job upon his immediate return.

3. When He Earns the Volume, Leonard Fournette Will Make Defenses Tap Out

Minshew's ability to read and manipulate defenses within the scope of the play as well as his improvisational mojo from the pocket is extending drives. When the Jaguars have more opportunities to hand the football to Leonard Fournette, the offense becomes infinitely more dangerous.

Pre-draft, I characterized Fournette as a dump truck and when you let him run downhill with your quarterback under center, tackling him is like kissing the chrome bulldog on the grill of a Mack Truck coming at you at 20-22 miles per hour.

When he entered the league Fournette hit creases with greater violence than any back in the NFL. Although I think he's lessened the violence a bit, he's still a punishing runner when he enters the hole. After a while, defensive backs want no part of hitting Fournette.

Watch the angle No.20 takes on this backside run blitz that Fournette turns into an 81-yard gallop.

As my friend, and former Rotoworld and RSP contributor, Eric Stoner mentioned to me this morning, No.20 should have cut this angle a little tighter and if he does, he reaches Fournette in the crease. However, he didn't want any part of Fournette at this point.

The same is true of the safety coming downhill on this run that puts Fournette at 210 yards on the day (he earned 229 by game's end).,

Watch this safety come downhill and get picked up by the lead blocker and there's really no indication that he would be fooled any Fournette's hesitation to set up the block. There was no alternate crease that forced the safety veer into the block.

If Fournette can do this to a Denver defense at Mile High—a unit that held Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Jamal Williams, and Aaron Jones to a combined total of 229 yards—it's worth targeting Fournette in trades for running back talent. This is especially true when considering how well D.J. Chark is playing. Chark is making difficult plays look easy and this also helps the cause of Dede Westbrook and the supporting cast fo the Jaguars passing game.

Fournette is back and as long as Minshew or Foles can perform well from under center, this is a dangerous team. It's too bad Jalen Ramsey wants to leave it because this squad has more offensive potential than the one that reached the AFC Championship.

4. Shaq Barrett Is A Complete Player

I almost wrote about Barrett last week after luckily adding him in the Footballguys' IDP dynasty league and he scored 61 points for me. This weekend, Barrett showed that he's no fluke. He's a complete player who can stop the run, play the pass, and ravage pockets.

Barrett also has an excellent jump-move to reach the outside shoulder of the tackle.

I hope you grabbed him two weeks ago from IDP waiver wires. If you're not in an IDP league but your team defense scoring is weighted towards sacks and turnovers, Barrett makes Tampa Bay a worthwhile streamer.

5. Unless YOu're Expecting Him to Be the Solution, Jared Goff Is Not the Problem

Last week, I showed what Jared Goff did under pressure as a pocket manager that Mayfield would benefit to learn. Another strength of Goff's is his ability to identify and exploit defender leverage. It makes Goff an excellent anticipatory passer.

Mayfield can perform this skill when he's working with his first read in a progression. However, Goff can do it with his second, third, or fourth reads.

This is an elite trait of quarterbacking. Make no mistake, this doesn't make Goff an elite quarterback. However, the characterization that Goff is a puppet is a gross underestimation of his abilities.

When we discuss the issues with the Rams' offense Sean McVay's scheme designs are more often the culprit. Analysts point to Goff's poor production under pressure, but they don't consider that we don't contextualize pressure:

Context matters when making broader statements about a quarterback’s game because what I haven’t seen is an in-depth analysis of pressure types:

  • Is it mostly interior or edge pressure?
  • Is it a single defender or multiple defenders at the same time?
  • Which type of offensive plays are most difficult to execute against these different pressure types?
  • Do quarterbacks execute with a higher rating against pressure when in pistol, shotgun, or under center?
  • On a scale of difficulty, which types of pressure are the most and least formidable for quarterbacks to handle?

I seek this context because we watched the Lions, Bears, and Patriots foil the Rams offense late in the season and much of the blame be misplaced on Goff when a deeper study of scheme and strategy suggest that defenses found answers to Sean McVay’s scheme and McVay didn’t develop any timely counter attacks.

A good example was the way the Lions dismantled the Rams’ screen game. Bill Belichick credited the Lions’ approach to the Rams offense as a template for his Super Bowl-winning work against LA later in the year.

The Lions shut down this play repeatedly afterward with a defensive line work that confused the Rams offensive line and put Goff in untenable situations because there aren’t usually viable check-downs for screens and a quarterback’s rating will naturally suffer if an opposing defense has figured out a play and your play-caller is essentially banging his head against the wall for the rest of the game.

Goff’s response to difficult forms of pressure remains promising even if it’s not showing up with his quarterback rating. When I’m scouting quarterbacks against pressure, I’m seeking poised movement that’s efficient and gives the quarterback a quick second- or third-chance to deliver the ball.

I also want to see if the quarterback displays quick enough processing of the situation and his targeted route to deliver the ball with effective placement. Although Goff’s statistical production under pressure doesn’t look good, his tape has long provided impressive displays of skill in these situations stretching back to his years at Cal.

Although I haven’t seen the data on interior versus edge pressure, quarterbacks say that interior pressure is more difficult to handle. Here’s Goff executing a picture-perfect response to the Packers’ interior pressure below.

As it stands, Goff's "just-misses" are often on far more difficult plays than the two we saw during the Super Bowl that has been used by analysts to whitewash over his portfolio of work. Even as the Rams' offense is slow to adjust, Goff's skill and the talents of his supporting cast makes him a viable weekly starter and one I'd acquire in trades if he's part of a package deal.

6. Courtland Sutton Remains A Work In Progress

I haven't studied Courtland Sutton's route running and reception numbers like Matt Harmon will do with Reception Perception, so I don't know if he's statistically on track for a better year. What I study often falls between the cracks of Harmon's analysis and complements his in the ways his complements mine.

So, if you read from Harmon that Sutton is improving and wonder why I am telling you that Sutton remains a work in progress, understand the context. Sutton's production may be on the rise, but his process of catching the football still has moments where it remains an adventure.

Sutton's hands remain too far apart for maximum consistency and I wonder if he would have hung onto some of these passes if Jalen Ramsey was in the lineup and Sutton faced Ramsey or A.J. Bouye.

If you want to see an example good attack of targets of this type, here's a play from Kenny Golladay's work against the Chiefs on Sunday.

This clip is especially compelling because Golladay doesn't secure the ball immediately. His technique affords him a strong second-chance in contrast to this poor technique from Ted Ginn Jr on Sunday night.

7. Dawson Knox Is For Real, But He's Not (Yet) Fantasy Gold

College football writer Bruce Feldman had Dawson Knox on his annual Freak's List when Knox was a rising senior. However, Ole Miss' use of Knox obscured his athletic ability to all but diehard Ole Miss fans, staff, and film grinders. Even the pre-draft buzz was dulled until the NFL Combine and he didn't participate in every drill.

So, it was fun to watch the Bills' media gradually gain excitement about Knox throughout the spring and summer after Tyler Kroft got hurt. Now that he's on the field, everyone can see that he could become every bit the fantasy producer we're expecting from the likes of T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant, and Irv Smith, Jr.

Knox can stretch the seam, win tight-coverage targets, and make plays after the catch.

Experience and maturity—his experience and Josh Allen's immaturity—are the two major things holding Knox back from weekly fantasy production. Still, add him to your list as potential options to acquire if in need of tight end and don't have the collateral to trade for a marquee name.

8. Chris Godwin Is Emerging Into A Co-WR1 In Tampa

I'd like to apologize to our Sunday Audible listeners. During the show, Sigmund Bloom lamented that Godwin would be a bad play against the Rams due to a hip injury. Jene Bramel countered Bloom's point and explained why he was optimistic about Godwin. At first, I agreed with Jene and recommended starting him.

Then, I considered the idea of Eric Ebron against the Raiders with T.Y. Hilton out and suggested that I'd bench Godwin in some cases for a dice-roll of this sort.

So...that stunk. Hopefully, you kept Godwin in your lineups as I did in most of mine. Or, like the rest of mine, it didn't cost you a victory. If so, my apologies because it was Chris Godwin Day in the City of Angels.

A complete player, Godwin could be the man for a team's passing game if he goes elsewhere at the end of his rookie contract. He also proved that he's a tough player and like T.Y. Hilton you start him even if he's been questionable for most of the week and playing hurt.

9. The Lions Are A Different Team

For years, the Lions have been an offense with talented quarterback without an offensive line who has been asked to do too much and an undisciplined defense that couldn't stop anyone much less deliver consistent big plays. The Chiefs' game is a strong indication that this is isn't your older brother's Lions.

Detroit's offensive line can block and it's a physical, athletic group that's well-suited to gap blocking, which is hard to do. The addition of T.J. Hockenson as an extension of this line is also being put to good use for the ground game.

This line is also giving Matthew Stafford time to throw the ball. The broadcast crew characterized Stafford as an early-generation Patrick Mahomes II without the caliber of surrounding talent, which led to Stafford earning criticism for his off-platform work.

Some of the criticism was justified, although there's a compelling argument that the lack of surrounding talent led to high-pressure situations that often break down any quarterback's mechanics and discipline. Stafford entered this game with an injury that would have benched many passers, but he's the toughest quarterback in the NFL—go argue with someone else about this because I'm not hearing any argument otherwise.

He suited up and while limping around, outperformed Patrick Mahomes II as a passer.

In addition to having a full complement of aerial and ground weapons on offense, the Lions now have a defense. Detroit is no longer a weekly Fresh Fish candidate for poor line fits that lead to breakaway runs and it has playmakers in the secondary. In fact, this entire team seemed to take a seminar in the Charles "Peanut" Tillman technique, commonly known as the Peanut Punch.

The Lions didn't let this game slip through its grasp with major mistakes. This was a hard-fought, to-the-wire contest. Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, T.J. Hockenson (barring serious effects from his concussion), and Kerryon Johnson are all fantasy starters. Look for Johnson to earn a feature role moving forward and expect Matthew Stafford to return to fantasy QB1 production as long as his hip/back doesn't require midseason surgery.

10. FRESH FISH: Week 4

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: CB Desmond Trufant and the Falcons linebackers and secondary

The Falcons' back-seven is the Sammie Coates Jr of defensive units. Like Coates, they're great athletes but they lack the technical and conceptual skill to track ballcarriers with great angles in the open field the way Coates can't track a football in the air. They also miss tackles in this area of the field and it has been an issue during the Dan Quinn era.

Without Damontae Kazee, it's only going to get worse this year.

Let's move onto additional specimens from the fish market:

  • QB Josh Allen: Although he has shown signs of life for the first three weeks, as soon as he was pressed into becoming a big-boy quarterback, he tried to do too much and his "be a hero" mentality led to multiple interceptions on "up-for-grabs" throws and a lost fumble. Allen is making progress but his immaturity as a manager of the game is a multi-year issue.
  • CB Sidney Jones and the Eagles secondary: Davante Adams burned them early and secondary might as well have been covering him in full hazmat suits for the rest of the game. It was that easy for Adams due to their cushions.
  • CB Aqib Talib: Once known as a physical corner, I wonder if Steven Smith robbed Talib of his football soul after the "Ice Up, Son," Monday Night showdown. Considering his resurgence in Denver, I don' think so. However, this weekend, Talib used too much cushion on Chris Godwin and had a chance to attack Godwin at the end of a touchdown run to prevent the score but wilted before the point of contact.
  • Buffalo's wide receivers: When Matt Barkley entered the game for an injured Allen, Barkley delivered a handful of catchable passes that could have made a difference in this game but John Brown, Cole Beasley, and company dropped them.

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Davante Adams Josh Allen Matt Barkley Saquon Barkley Cole Beasley Odell Beckham Jr A.J. Bouye Tom Brady John Brown Bradley Chubb Nick Chubb D.J. Chark Jr Corey Davis Eric Ebron Noah Fant Nick Foles Leonard Fournette Chris Godwin Jared Goff Kenny Golladay T.Y. Hilton T.J. Hockenson Kareem Hunt Lamar Jackson Josh Jacobs Kerryon Johnson Aaron Jones Marvin Jones Jr Sidney Jones IV Damontae Kazee Dawson Knox Tyler Kroft Jarvis Landry Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Von Miller Gardner Minshew David Montgomery Isaiah Oliver Jalen Ramsey Irv Smith Jr. Matthew Stafford Courtland Sutton Desmond Trufant Carson Wentz Dede Westbrook Russell Wilson

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