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Footballguys' Top 10: Insights From the NFL's 2019 Dress Rehearsal

Matt Waldman's Footballguys' Top 10: Insights From the NFL's 2019 Dress Rehearsal
By Matt Waldman, August 28, 2019

Footballguys' Top 10: Insights From the NFL's 2019 Dress Rehearsal
Photo: Imagn Images

THE NFL'S DRESS REHEARSAL WEEKEND

Many of this week's games featured starters and key contributors for at least a half of football. Generally, teams don't work from an expanded playbook because they don't want to tip their hands to in-season opponents scouting ahead. This is another compelling reason why we don't see NFL opponents catch onto a player, a scheme, or a team until at least 4-6 weeks into the season.

One thing the preseason dress rehearsal weekend reveals is the personnel that teams value. If a reserve earned playing time with starters this weekend, it's a good indication that, regardless of listing on the depth chart, the team values the skills that they've seen from the player thus far—even if injuries are the reason the player is earning time with the first or second unit.

Sometimes, a team will play a reserve sparingly because they have already seen enough from the player to know that they will be using him during the season and there's no need to evaluate his play. In other instances, a veteran finally sees the field to shake the rust off.

This week is my opportunity to get some preseason reps with Footballguys' Top 10, which will be available here every Monday evening and filled with fantasy insights from my weekly notebook based on film study. During the season, the Top 10 will feature mostly my own video analysis. This week, I'm using a higher percentage of videos that others around the web have made and add my insights to them.

One thing that I'll be adding to the column this year is a bullet list of insights from these 10 sections. If you don't have time to dig into the details all at once but want actionable Cliff's Notes, they'll be listed before the first section of the article.

Straight, No Chaser: Dress Rehearsal Weekend

  1. Jacoby Brissett is borderline starter material. If the supporting cast can't help him, Chad Kelly has franchise-starter talent.
  2. Deion Cain should be on your waiver-wire watch lists, and he's a dynasty buy-low.
  3. Tony Pollard showed glimpses of skill as a runner between the tackles during the Senior Bowl. He's showing it in Dallas—a great sign.
  4. Bruce Gradkowski and Brett Hundley also led the NFL in preseason quarterback rating, so the current praise for Daniel Jones is premature because he's not showing anything different than what's on his scouting report.
  5. If you want to learn the difference between what Jones has shown and what Brees and to a lesser extent Kelly, watch Brees execute in this complex situation below against the Jets.
  6. Dalvin Cook looks good but his 85-yard run exposed how the Cardinals' defense isn't getting quality preparation for other NFL teams because of the Cardinals' offensive scheme.
  7. Parsing the 49ers receiving corps: Deebo Samuel will start but we still need to see him face starting corners playing press coverage and the concerns over Dante Pettis' preseason are overreactions—George Kittle told the media that Kyle Shanahan put him through the same thing last summer.
  8. A.J. Brown is underrated in fantasy drafts and he's far more advanced than characterized.
  9. The Ravens rookie receivers and Lamar Jackson's wheels will force defenses to play overly conservative, which will still lead to strong production for the offense.
  10. Kenyan Drake is the long-term runner to have this year in the Miami backfield because Kalen Ballage is still a work in progress.
  11. Looking back at the warning signs I shared last year about Andrew Luck's career.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, welcome...

1. Luck Gone, but skill remains

Andrew Luck's retirement leaves a hole in the Colts. When considering what's next for the offense, the first reaction from much of social media was a list of quarterbacks who could fill what they perceive as a massive void.

They're underestimating what Indianapolis already has on the roster. Jacoby Brissett has promise and he performed admirably through a difficult season two years ago where he had to learn the offense and his teammates on the fly. However, the real wildcard is Chad Kelly.

If Brissett fails to move the ball well during the first 4-7 weeks of the season and the Colts are 1-3, 2-4, or 3-4 during this span, it will make sense for Indianapolis to give Kelly an extended tryout as its starter and future franchise quarterback. We'll get to Kelly's skills in a moment, first let's set the foundation for this argument.

It's reasonable to believe that the Colts knew Luck's passion for the game was waning. First, there were rumors of trading Brissett and then rumors that the Colts were rebuffing offers.

After the draft, the was news that Indianapolis would sign Kelly. Soon after, the organization said it might sign Kelly but would wait and see. By late spring, Kelly was on the roster.

Meanwhile, we learned about the vague description of Luck's injury and his absence from camp. It's possible that Luck's injury and reticence to play without practicing led to him broaching retirement around the time the Colts began rebuffing offers for Brissett and signing Kelly.

It's not difficult to believe that Luck told the organization that he wanted to retire, the Colts asked him to reconsider while attending camp but taking it easy. Luck's teammates seemed sad but past any real shock about the decision after the announcement. Adding Kelly, a player who will serve a two-game suspension to begin the year, seemed like an odd luxury at the time but now appears to be a potential necessity when considering what they may have known about Luck for weeks.

Phillip Walker is a reserve hoping to develop into a decent No.2 one day. Kelly is already there.

In fact, Kelly is already a starter-caliber talent with franchise-caliber potential. Despite performing against reserves during the preseason, the behaviors that I seek when I study quarterbacks that are less dependent on the caliber of competition and more dependent on the player's decision-making are present in Kelly's game with abundance—and they were there at Ole Miss and Denver.

Alie-Cox is wide open, but Kelly's ability to turn his back to the defense, re-identify the receiver, and fire the ball over the shallow coverage in the flat to his tight end in stride is a more difficult throw than it appears. This is an accurate throw with good velocity.

One of the things about Kelly's game that sets him apart is his confidence to execute without hesitation when he identifies an open option. I've highlighted this in the past from my own analysis, but I heard similar from someone I trusted who was in the scouting community until he retired from the profession last year.

"His instincts and headiness are extremely impressive. He plays quarterback intuitively, which is very rare to find. A lot of guys watch film for years and still have that hitch when it comes time to make a play. He doesn’t."

Here are some plays where Kelly displays the patience to hang in the pocket but there's no hesitation when he finds the open man.

Kelly was a dual-threat quarterback in high school who Clemson originally recruited before Deshaun Watson arrived. Kelly has shown off his speed in the past—but this year has been the healthiest he's been in 2-3 seasons. Watch Kelly work from pressure as a runner and passer.

Not all of these players are complex, but Kelly's game is adept at using complex sentences relative to young prospects (more on this in segments No.4 and No.5). Kelly is a tough, pocket-savvy passer with better wheels than Brissett and an intuitive feel as a downfield passer. Brissett may know the offense better and has more experience executing what the scheme intends, but Kelly is a more talented player off-script who can make things happen in a similar vein as Luck.

You won't be drafting Kelly in fantasy leagues but he better be on your shortlist of free agents capable of high impact. This also goes for Deon Cain.

2. Tony Pollard has the goods

Seeking a late-round running back with the potential to become "the next Phillip Lindsay" in 2019? Tony Pollard is your runner. He has not only had a strong training camp but his performances are translating to the preseason.

Pollard is an explosive runner who spent most of his time at Memphis as a gadget player complementing Darrell Henderson. The first clue that Pollard offered more than the Tigers featured was the Senior Bowl.

During the week of practices for the all-star game in Mobile, Pollard consistently demonstrated the skill to work between the tackles without hesitation. When a runner is decisive with his footwork and understands how to shorten or lengthen the pace and width of his steps while displaying timing with the opening of the crease, these are good signs that the runner processes development of blocks and the attack of opponents.

I found this notable, but not informative enough to give him a higher grade in my scouting reports. Practice sessions lack full contact and the intensity that comes with it so it's difficult to project Pollard's practices as a game-changer for his outlook after watching him operate mostly as a receiver.

It's why Pollard's work in August against full contact has been enlightening.

Pollard is not strictly a space player. He's good in that setting, but he is a capable backup to Elliott with starter skills. With Dallas' surrounding talent, Pollard can deliver top-15 fantasy production at the running back position if called upon.

When Elliott returns, expect Pollard to maintain a role as a change-of-pace option. It may not severely cut into Elliott's playing time, but Pollard could still earn a handful of flex-worthy performances.

3. Daniel Jones' performances Won't quiet my doubts (yet)

Daniel Jones has a 140.1 quarterback rating for the preseason, second among all participating passers. Do you know who else led quarterbacks in preseason quarterback rating? Brett Hundley and Bruce Gradkowski.

That's elite company right there.

Still, Giants head coach Pat Shurmur has been quietly riled by the criticism leveled at New York's decision to take Jones early. After Jones delivered another performance that looked solid in the box score, Shurmur couldn't help himself when asked about his rookie quarterback.

"You can ask me all you want about why I like him. I think it's time to start asking the people that didn't like what they think."

I'm so glad Shurmur redirected this question to the likes of me. I was even giddier when Ed Valentine of Big Blue Review, who had me on his show repeatedly prior to the draft to discuss this quarterback class, said he'd love to get a response from me about Shurmur's statement.

Here's what I told Valentine:

“It’s understandable that Pat Shurmur would ask that question. He’s had a chance to work with Daniel Jones from pre-draft through training camp and into the preseason, and from what they’ve asked him to do he’s done a good job,” Waldman said.

“Knowing that there was a lot of criticism of the organization and it’s a prideful organization … as a guy who’s gonna be a leader of that organization he’s going to ask that question. It’s a good rhetorical question, kind of good rhetoric to put out there that’s going to pump up your young quarterback who’s probably read some of his headlines and clippings and seen how everyone has panned him.”

Waldman, though, isn’t quite ready to join Mark Schofield in downing a few forkfuls of crow.

“What do I think now? I’d say I still feel the same way I do with my scouting report. When you look at Daniel Jones his strengths have always been that he’s tough in the pocket and willing to take punishment, that when you give him time and allow him to make first reads he’s going to make good plays,” Waldman said.

“He’s made good plays with what he’s been asked to do.”

Waldman, though, is reserving judgment until he sees Jones in what he considers to be more challenging situations.

“From what I’ve seen thus far essentially I’ve seen a player that when he has the first read time he’s making the plays. The plays aren’t going to separate him from being a backup quarterback in the NFL to being a high-end starter because we haven’t seen enough exposures based on what you show in camp and what you see in preseason,” Waldman said.

“I haven’t seen instances in the preseason that show he’s overcome his difficulty working multiple progressions, buying time in a way where he’s going to be able to make accurate throws after his first progression. … You’ve seen him have difficulty being able to hold onto the ball when hit in the pocket in repeated situations. You’ve had multiple fumbles.

“What you see is a guy doing, in my opinion, what he’s supposed to do with what’s been set up for him right now. What we haven’t seen are the difficult things that separate starters from backups in the NFL and we’re not going to see that until he gets on the field (in the regular season).”

Jones is doing basic work. He's working plays that are designed to get the ball out quick—don't think Meat, just throw—screen passes, throws to the flats, and deep throws with extremely favorable leverage by the defender that allows for area-code accuracy.

Only the second attempt in this montage is somewhat impressive in terms of difficulty because he has some pressure in this face—nothing like Chad Kelly has faced or the combination of factors that Drew Brees overcomes on a play I'll show later.

And when it comes to this play against the Bengals, everyone who has watched Jones at Duke knows that he will stand in against pressure and take punishment. It's one of his positives.

None of these plays are impressive reads or manipulations of the defense. When forced to hold onto the ball longer, I didn't see him exhibit good pocket management and ball security.

Brian Baldinger takes the optimistic view, showing Jones' five "misses" thus far. However, these are exactly the types of misses that are common to his game in situations where coverage is tight, he has to go downfield, or he's under pressure.

When the opposition notches up the level of play, Jones consistently plays "just a bit off."

While everyone is wondering if the Giants were right about Jones, I'm still waiting to see something different from my scouting report that expresses concerns that Jones' game is not the sum of its parts.

If Jones can deliver against defenses of great complexity with the same play he's always shown in simpler situations, I'll change my mind. Until then, the burden of proof is still on Jones.

4. Drew Brees Showing What good processing of complex material looks like

The plays I'm seeking from Jones' game are closer to this one from Brees against the Jets last weekend. This play required multiple reads, climbing the pocket from pressure, and making ball placement choices that consider difficult coverage obstacles.

Although this is an excellent play, the point is that Jones' performance of first reads, the quick game, and throwing under pressure without a lot of movement to avoid and rest is like a kid using simple sentences: The house is blue. The dog barks loud. Mom baked cookies.

Brees' plays, as well as those of 15-18 starters in the NFL, often use complex sentences. It's good that Jones is doing what he's supposed to do in simpler scenarios but for him to earn and keep a starting role, he'll have to show more—even if his game never approaches the articulate ways of Brees.

5. Dalvin Cook exposed an unintended consequence of Arizona's offense

This touchdown gallop against the Cardinals is a quintessential Dalvin Cook run from his Florida State years:

There's no doubt that Cook's ability to bend angles without losing much speed is tremendous. Watching Cook split the secondary was awesome.

However, watching the Cardinals overpursue from the backside on 1st and 20—freeze the video at the two-second mark and you'll see the linebackers and defensive end all abandon their gaps and give up a backside crease the size of a golf course fairway. This video is as telling of the Cardinals' defense as Cook's health.

And this lack of gap discipline (bad run fits) has been a subject among former NFL players observing Arizona during the preseason.

Essentially, Kliff Kingsbury's offense is different enough that the Cardinals defense isn't practicing against looks that will adequately prepare them for the opposition. Injuries also exacerbate the problem. Free-agent acquisition Robert Alford is out with a significant leg injury and Patrick Peterson will serve a six-game suspension.

If you have 2-3 of Kerryon Johnson, C.J. Anderson, Mark Ingram, Justice Hill, Christian McCaffrey, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Joe Mixon, Devonta Freeman, and Saquon Barkley, this issue may enhance your chances of some strong fantasy weeks during the first six games of the season.

6. Making sense of the 49ers receiving corps

Depending on which beat writer you read, Dante Pettis is either poised to build on an impressive stretch run during his rookie season or he's struggling to make the roster because Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd, Kendrick Bourne, Trent Taylor, and Marquise Goodwin will edge him out. I have two words to explain this phenomenon.

Training camp insanity.

Let's parse this out. Deebo Samuel is ready to help immediately in multiple ways:

What you're not seeing with any of this work is Samuel winning against tight man coverage in the first or second quarter of any game, which means Samuel has proven zero against top competition that he hasn't worked against daily for months now. It doesn't mean Samuel won't be good but predicting primary starter production from Samuel on the basis of facing zone coverage, winning a double move against a defensive back he had already beaten by two yards, and a jet sweep doesn't scream "primary receiver."

Dallas Cowboys receiver coach Sanjay Lal has a good working definition of a primary receiver, and that's a player who can beat the opponent's top corner playing tight man coverage on a consistent enough basis to be a valuable weapon. Samuel may be that player, but there's no proof from the preseason tape to suggest that time is now.

Samuel will likely start and earn targets as the first read against zone coverage or man-to-man mismatches with the secondary cornerback rather than the shutdown option. If Samuel earns between 600-800 yards receiving and 5-6 touchdowns this year, consider it a strong rookie season.

Jalen Hurd's highlights are the poster child of overanalysis based on physical skill. Football writers love them some eye candy like this run after the catch.

Red zone fades are also delicious eye candy, especially in the fourth quarter of a preseason game.

Too bad red zone fades are among the lowest-percentile plays an offense can try in the red zone when they play football with players who are only seen for five minutes during the first quarter of preseason games.

I have a strong evaluation for Jalen Hurd and I like his future but his future as a starter isn't now.

Trent Taylor should become a regular in the starting rotation when his foot injury heals. It means you're waiting 6-8 weeks if you're optimistic. If you're being realistic like Dr. Jene Bramel, then you know these injuries often take longer to heal and that rushing onto the field can lead to complications.

Trent Taylor is PPR fantasy-flex promise heading towards Danny Hematoma Country.

What about Sigmund Bloom's favorite cat-loving football player, Marquise Goodwin?

Here's more from his jungle training routine...

It's increased his profile on Twitter, but he's still an injury-prone track star who plays football well when he isn't popping one of those tightly-wound muscles in his legs that led the 49ers to draft four receivers with starter during the past two years and tell the media that they will preserve Goodwin for situational play.

Let's all hope that Goodwin, who also owns a cheetah, still has hands and legs after playing with his "pet cats."

That leaves us with Pettis, who only had 27 catches, 467 yards, and 5 scores in 12 games during his rookie season, which according to Dylan DeSimone, is pretty good...

But Matt, Kyle Shanahan has challenged Pettis to be more physical and he told the media that Pettis is fighting for a role in the offense? He must be struggling, right?

No. Shanahan has told the media that Pettis is better in camp this year than he was last and sees the potential for Pettis to become "a great receiver in the NFL." This is why he has been critical of Pettis this summer.

This hasn't prevented a portion of beat writers to claim that he may not start or contribute significantly in the offense this year. However, there are some wise enough voices to know better.

Most of these video examples came from regular-season games, not preseason highlights. If you want to real goods on all of this "sky-is-falling" from the 49ers community, read this article from the Sacramento Bee about the subject. In it, you'll see that George Kittle went through the same thing with Shanahan last summer.

Kittle understands where Shanahan is coming from regarding Pettis and offered advice to the receiver.

“I think the worst thing you can do is just tell guys, ‘Hey, you’re the starter,’” Kittle told The Bee. “I remember (Richard) Sherman said something about that. ‘If you give a guy a starting job, he’s never going to look over shoulder.’ He’s like, ‘Hey, I’ve cemented myself.’”

The public has heard Shanahan’s comments about Pettis this summer and has taken them as a sign of the worst. After all, the 49ers have struggled to draft and develop receivers in recent seasons and 2012 first-round bust A.J. Jenkins remains in fresh in the mind of the fan base.

But Kittle doesn’t seem worried about Pettis or the fact Shanahan has publicly asked him to show more on the practice field and in games.

“(Shanahan’s) saying the same things to me, he’s saying the same things to Jimmy (Garoppolo), he’s saying the same things to Joe Staley,” Kittle said. “I think the second-year slump is a real thing. Because you have such a long rookie year that you don’t know how to transition to the NFL. It’s a little different. Just seeing how guys respond to it, that’s what coach Shanahan likes to do. He likes to give guys opportunities – he likes to challenge guys and see how they respond.”

Pettis also talks about his style of play that leads to beat writers to conflate how he plays with Shanahan's commentary and see the worst.

My thoughts: Stay sane out there, folks. Pick Pettis—and at a discount relative to his value at the beginning of the month.

7. Don't forget about A.J. Brown

There are a lot of rookie receivers earning buzz from the media this month, including the 49ers tag team, Baltimore's duo (see below), Terry McLaurin, Preston Williams, and even New England's Jakobi Meyers. Some of them will actually show that they're worth the buzz somewhere between two weeks from now and two years from now.

One who few are talking about is one of the earliest selections of the NFL Draft, Tennessee's A.J. Brown. After putting on enough of a show in May and June that veteran football players and media got excited enough to say he might be the best receiver on the team right now, Brown suffered an injury that cost him much of August.

Back on the practice field for a couple of weeks, Brown either hasn't done enough for national media to buzz about him or they're in a feeding frenzy over the starting quarterback competition that originally wasn't supposed to be a competition. This quarterback issue is also causing fantasy analysts to shy away from Brown as one of their touts.

Not I, friends. Brown is my late-round bet to approximate Odell Beckham'ss rookie year as the guy no one saw coming because they dismissed him in August.

This Tweet and video encapsulate the cognitive dissonance between a good play and dismissive behavior based on that good play not fitting the long-established path of preseason drumbeats that will spoonfeed a media guy that the player is quality.

Very raw?

Very raw?!

If Reising is defining raw in terms of reading complex defensive coverages, knowing his option routes in this scheme, understanding his splits in this offense, then sure. If he's talking about the mechanics of route running, pass-catching, and ball-carrying, then I disagree with Reising.

Brown is a savvy player when it's time to face his opponent. This route below leads to a defensive pass interference penalty and everything about it from release to his positioning on the opponent as the ball arrives scream veteran play.

Whether it's Mariota or Ryan Tannehill, both quarterbacks have shown strong rapport with big slot receivers—in fact, the same one in Rishard Matthews. Brown will see a lot of time in the slot or alignments that motion him there.

At Brown's late-round price tag, I'm enthusiastically taking him in drafts.

8. Baltimore's Rookie Tag Team

While possible that Willie Snead and Chris Moore lead the Ravens wide receivers in passing production this year, this is the first year in several where I believe Baltimore got it right in the draft at this position. Miles Boykin and Marquise Brown are excellent talents who will be great fits in this offense on paper and on the field.

Brown made his preseason debut last weekend and Brian Baldinger's assessment of the performance underscores some valuable insights. First, Brown looks healthy. Second, Brown's speed will pose issues for first-team corners in the vertical game. Third, opponents must get multiple defenders within a five-yard radius of Brown as soon as he catches the ball or it's going to be a track meet.

The most underrated point of this video is the play featuring Boykin as the target. With both receivers split to the left side on this play-action pass, Brown commands the safety up the seam and it leaves the large, strong, sudden, and fast Boykin one-on-one with a defender who cannot contain the rookie after the catch.

Brown will scare defensive coordinators to the point of them playing safe coverage that will open the field for Boykin. Like most middle managers, coaches fear risk when creates schemes on the field. Ross Cooper, a recruiting coordinator and college coach I know had this conversation with me last week about this topic, which relates to how vanilla defenses will play options like Brown and Boykin.

RC: Matt, I want to present this question to you. Cover 2. The more I think about it and see so many teams using it, the more I am left with the thought that so many teams are not getting the most out of it. Cornerbacks playing off and then just bailing into their depth, instead of mixing it up and playing on the line of scrimmage getting a jam and then sinking into their flat, even sitting 4-5 yards off and getting a catch-man type of jam then sinking. Even playing a more open style—like a Champ Bailey style of stance—and getting a quick one-hand jam and then retreating. Why aren't they doing this more?

MW: Do you think coaches don't trust or teach their defensive backs to use their best judgment for the situations and when to apply them?

RC: I think that's a major part of it, indeed. The more I've thought about it, it appears that many see Cover 2 as a preventative/"let's not get beat" coverage and are not using it with a play-making mindset.

MW: The more I listen to podcasts with coaches like "Run the Power," the more I realize that there are so many aspects to coaching that the demanding environment causes them to be reactive rather than taking advantage of low-hanging fruit. If they do capitalize, then they might also miss out on the daily structure and organizational parts of their job that otherwise would help them become the best version of themselves. It's like plugging one leak and another one springing elsewhere.

I managed a team of 3,500 labor hours. I had to do my own recruiting and training, my own client management, and still had to deal with all of the day-to-day operational responsibilities with a team of 10 supervisors from 8 am to 2 am, 7 days a week. It took a huge commitment of extra time to do anything progressive and dynamic that would generate notable and lasting change.

I bring up this personal experience because I look at coaches and wonder more about how skilled they are as managers—time management, training, delegating, picking the right talents for the correct roles who can execute you vision but also share their own ideas and tweaks to the plan that won't run counter to what you're trying to do. I have a feeling the number of skilled managers is much lower than it should be and that too many coaches are hired for their skills with a specific scheme.

This relates back to Cover 2 because there's probably a lot of low-hanging fruit out there to make impactful decisions on the field that don't happen because the coach is so covered up with details that he plays it safe in situations where he shouldn't.

RC: Great point and very true. There is a feeling among many that they lack the control they should have or a mentality of "If I don't do 'X', what will happen to our team?" This last question plays a major role in the decision to play it safe.

It's a Catch-22 in every regard. Placing players and scheme in a box but yet wanting results to flow despite the fact that results often don't come from that box mentality.

MW: And that's why the risk dynamic is so important. Most coaches have to know they are taking a risk that could cause upper management, media, school officials, alumni, and fans to go after them it doesn't work. Big risks cause big blow-ups on and off the field when the smaller mistakes will lead to repeated first downs, too many yards allowed, and nagging complaints from outsiders.

It's a similar mentality in non-football management: You can survive non-fatal errors for a great amount of time. You may even earn extra time from your superiors if you're close to near-career death by a thousand paper cuts.

However, make one big mistake with a huge risk—even if it ultimately leads to less loss than the thousand paper cuts scenario long-term—and the fear of the next big mistake leads to reactionary thinking.

It's so ingrained that by the time someone earns the authority to do differently—in coaching or other operation management environments—they realize that it's emotionally difficult to take risks after working so hard to reach this point in their career. They talk themselves into playing the middle ground or playing it safe with their initial decisions—at least until they've built enough red to take more chances.

Of course, this rarely happens because they needed to take those risks to earn the results that would help them stand out from the rest. Their career becomes a vicious cycle of never being good enough to feel emotionally comfortable about embracing risk because they never took the initial risk to set the tone.

RC: Makes me think within different schemes all of the things we're truly missing out on. Then we have to ask within a certain player's skill what he is not allowed to do within that scheme that would be helpful.

What you said is also why certain coaches earn praise for taking these risks—Bill Belichick and Sean McVay—whereas other coaches don't turn that praise into taking that next step and following their own lead. Belichick and McVay, as well as others I could mention on the pro, college, and high school levels, are willing to see the individual players' talents within their scheme and adjust accordingly for what they can and cannot do.

However, so many of them don't even consider it.

MW: It's hard to do. It takes guts up front to make sure your stakeholders will support you during the growing years, especially when those stakeholders are notorious for lacking the stomach to do so long enough for things to turn around.

Sometimes there's a lot of luck involved. Tom Brady's acquisition was more luck than skill. New England has not been successful with drafting skill talent during the Brady Era if you look closely enough at its track record.

McVay got the gift of cleaning up a franchise that was considered a mess. I've inherited situations with low expectations and it's often easier to do things that will create beneficial and lasting change with less scrutiny from the fearful leadership who is bent on the status quo.

Both are great coaches but the dynamics of their environments were helpful to their success.

RC: I think this takes us back to where we started about Cover 2. Think about a player like Xavier Rhodes in Minnesota. He could do great things when playing Cover 2 if he was allowed to be physical first and then get his depth.

Even others who may not have Rhodes' physical build could use physical contact to shock and disrupt a wide receiver's timing while playing off but bump then bail into their flat. But as you said, coaches will not take that step enough times because they don't see the reward through the risk.

The bottom line on this conversation concerning the Ravens wide receivers and Lamar Jackson's legs is that most coaches will play the Ravens with too much caution for fear of not looking bad and still wind up looking bad. If they do take the risk, they'll do it in a hasty way wasn't a part of weekly preparation and big mistakes result.

You may not like Jackson's game because his throwing form doesn't fit your ideal of quarterback beauty that has been ingrained in you by watching one too many network football shows, but Jackson and this scheme have the potential to create a lot of blown assignments and his receivers Boykin and Brown have the athletic ability to earn big plays as a result.

At their draft value, Brown and Boykin are also worth the risk. You'll have to prioritize how many risks you want to take with rookie receivers based on the number of rounds in your drafts to determine who and how many.

9. Kalen Ballage or Kenyan Drake

I have watched Ballage during the preseason. He's a big and athletic player who can catch when he's not overthinking the game as it unfolds. He's at his best in a gap offense that allows him one decision of focus and to make the most of it.

Miami's prominent offensive coaches have a New England influence and the Patriots run a lot of gap plays. Ballage seems like a good fit on paper. On the field, there's still work to be done.

Although much of what Rookie Scouting Portfolio contributor J. Moyer shares below is based on last year, I haven't seen much difference from Ballage this summer. I've actually seen more mistakes as a receiver and difficulty processing the line in challenging situations where starters usually find solutions.

Here's what Moyer has seen:

Let’s get this out of the way: Kenyan Drake is a superior talent to Kalen Ballage, and it is not particularly close. Tantalizing due to his impressive size/speed numbers (226 lbs, 4.46 40-yard dash at the 2018 NFL Combine), Ballage struggles mightily to integrate scheme, vision, and footwork.

While working inside, Ballage often takes long, bounding strides that get him off-balance and inhibit his ability to react and adjust when the post-snap picture changes. As a result, Ballage is often unable to access holes that are standard for most NFL backs.

His skill for defeating tacklers is well below average. In my charting, I found he was tackled by the first defender on 43 of his 45 touches last year.

He does not tra

Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags Analysis Robert Alford Mo Alie-Cox Kalen Ballage Saquon Barkley Odell Beckham Jr Kendrick Bourne Miles Boykin Tom Brady Jacoby Brissett A.J. Brown Marquise Brown Chris Carson Dalvin Cook Kenyan Drake Devonta Freeman Jimmy Garoppolo Marquise Goodwin Dre Greenlaw Darrell Henderson Jr. Justice Hill Brett Hundley Mark Ingram II Lamar Jackson Kerryon Johnson Daniel Jones Julio Jones George Kittle Phillip Lindsay Christian McCaffrey Terry McLaurin Jakobi Meyers Joe Mixon Chris Moore Rashaad Penny Patrick Peterson Dante Pettis Tony Pollard Xavier Rhodes Deebo Samuel Richard Sherman Willie Snead IV Ryan Tannehill Trent Taylor Deshaun Watson Preston Williams Russell Wilson

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