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To Knee or Not to Knee

Todd Gurley has been the best fantasy running back over the last two seasons. Based purely on what he’s done under Sean McVay’s watch, Gurley would be in the running for the 1st overall pick alongside Saquon Barkley. Instead, Gurley is falling into the mid- to late-2nd round (or later) in drafts as fears over his knee have skyrocketed.

While Gurley’s knee is a risk factor, his ADP more than effectively discounts that risk. Even if he’s used more judiciously – aka, put on a snap count per se – he can still easily produce top-10 fantasy value. Don’t let bitterness over his Week 16 inactive and a few not-so-carefully chosen words by his trainer throw you off the scent. Gurley in the 2nd round or later is one of the best ways to help secure a 2019 fantasy championship.

Lies, Misdirection, and Deceit!

I know this is going to come as a shock to some of you, but coaches are prone to stretching the truth. Jokes aside, the term “coachspeak” exists for a reason, and the Rams have mastered the art of misdirection. How else can we explain what happened with McVay and Gurley last year?

After being his usual All-Pro self through the first three months, Gurley mysteriously sat the final two games, including Week 16 – which is the Super Bowl for most fantasy leagues. Nothing sours the fantasy community on a star than a Week 16 bust. But, it happens more than we care to admit.

What’s maddening, and concerning is the way the team and Gurley downplayed his knee issues. Gurley came out of the Eagles game in Week 15 with an apparent knee injury, but he got it wrapped and returned to the game. He and the team insisted he would be fine for Week 16. Gurley got his knee looked at early in Week 16 and was declared day-to-day. He didn’t practice, but Coach McVay confirmed he expected Gurley to play in Week 16 during his Wednesday press conference. As the week wore on, McVay began talking up C.J. Anderson as a contributor. Finally, Gurley was announced as out right before game time. It was less of a surprise when Gurley also sat out Week 17, with the idea being the Rams wanted their MVP 100% healthy for the playoffs.

And then came the playoff confusion. Things started off well. Gurley ran for 115 yards and a touchdown in the Divisional Round, even though he was out-snapped by Anderson. In the NFC Championship game, in spite of not being on the injury report, Gurley only ran the ball four times and sat most of the second half. It was clear something was still amiss.

McVay insisted Gurley’s knee was fine, as did Gurley. And both promised he would be “heavily involved” in the Super Bowl. We know that’s not how things went down, as Gurley ran the ball 10 times in the loss to the Patriots. Immediately after the game, Gurley – once again – insisted he was healthy.

And then things started to unravel.

• In March, CBS’ Jason LaConfora reported the Rams were considering stem-cell therapy for Gurley
• C.J. Anderson was caught off guard and admitted, “Gurley was more hurt than we thought” in an interview
• Later in March, The Athletic’s Jeff Howe confirmed Gurley was dealing with arthritis; hence the consideration of stem cell therapy
• Through all these reports, McVay maintained Gurley would be the “focal point of the offense” in 2019
• In April, McVay changed his tune and said the team would use more 2-back personnel in 2019, to help manage Gurley’s workload
• Gurley sat out of OTAs in May, despite assurances he would be a full participant in the offseason program
• In May, GM Les Snead confirmed Gurley would most likely not participate in preseason games
• In June, Gurley’s trainer Travelle Gaines confirmed the running back had “some kind of arthritic component to his knee”

And there we have it. Through it all, both McVay and Gurley have insisted the knee is fine, and the offseason maintenance is prudent to ensure he can be an asset in the regular season. Does the aforementioned confirm the narrative McVay is a liar? I don’t see it. It’s more likely Gurley’s knee was bothering him more than he let on, and finally, the team got together with Gurley and his doctors to work out a plan that makes sense; to ensure nothing like the 2018 postseason ever happens again.

Fact: The Knee Is A Risk Factor

Any time a workhorse back misses time in the biggest games of his career, it’s a red flag. Gurley tore his ACL in 2014 at the University of Georgia but had been a pillar of durability since. Any time the term arthritis is thrown out, it speaks to a chronic condition. The changing tone in the team’s handling of Gurley, and their decision to re-sign Malcolm Brown and draft Darrell Henderson, also speak to the potential for a lessened workload. Being worried about Gurley’s knee is prudent. The key, as with any fantasy player, is to figure out the appropriate discount that justifies dealing with the risk.

FICTION: The Knee is a Reason to Blacklist Gurley

Where the rubber isn’t meeting the road is this notion that Gurley has become undraftable. I’ve seen countless takes by other fantasy analysts declaring Gurley as someone to be avoided, regardless of cost. That makes no sense, for several reasons.

1. Our injury expert – Dr. Jene Bramel – is sanguine about Gurley’s knee for 2019
2. Every back you might choose over Gurley has similar or worse risks
3. Gurley was still the No. 1 fantasy back last year
4. He can be a top-10 back even if the Rams significantly curtail his workload

Dr. Bramel Isn’t Running for the Hills

From Jene's June Injury Report:

Gurley's trainer didn't pull any punches this week. Travelle Gaines confirmed the obvious in an interview this week -- Gurley has an arthritic joint. This really isn't news. Players with joint injuries often sustain cartilage damage. Cartilage (and meniscus tissue) doesn't heal well. Scarring and poorly cushioned joint surfaces -- arthritic changes -- are the inevitable result.

Gaines -- and Gurley -- have repeatedly said the running back feels healthy right now. But there are good reasons Gurley has taken some weight off and worked on strength and agility this offseason and the Rams are smartly looking for ways to limit Gurley's workload.

Many players have wear-and-tear conditions that require management during the season. Adding Gurley to the list doesn't mean his career is over or that he cannot have extended periods of elite play. Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, and Adrian Peterson had multiple knee injuries and likely degenerative conditions who went on to have many years of success.

Consider the Alternatives

The consensus top running backs this year have one thing in common: they haven’t been hurt. Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, and Christian McCaffrey have been pinnacles of health as pros, and that’s one of the reasons they’re going first. But beyond those four, and perhaps Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson (whose season-ending injury was a wrist break and not systemic), every other top-20 fantasy back (according to ADP) has risks equal to, or greater than Gurley’s knee.

• Melvin Gordon has missed nine games in four seasons and has only played a full season once
• James Conner tore his ACL as a college junior, missing the season. He had season-ending surgery on his MCL in 2017. He missed three games last year with a lower leg injury
• Joe Mixon missed two games in each of his first two seasons, including a knee injury last year that required minor surgery
• Dalvin Cook had three labrum surgeries in college, tore his ACL as a rookie, and then missed another five games last season with a hamstring injury
• Nick Chubb was Gurley’s backup at Georgia, and also suffered a season-ending injury a year later in 2015
• Leonard Fournette missed half of his final college season with multiple ankle injuries, missed three games as a rookie with injuries and a suspension, and missed half of the 2018 season with a combination of disciplinary issues and injuries
• Damien Williams was kicked off his college team for disciplinary reasons, was never a full-time runner until last year, and missed three games with a shoulder injury in 2017
• Aaron Jones missed his junior season with an ankle injury and has missed eight games in two NFL seasons due to substance abuse violations and multiple injuries
• Marlon Mack missed two games as a rookie with a shoulder injury, and four games last year with a hamstring injury
• Devonta Freeman has missed games with knee and groin injuries, including most of last season, and he’s had at least three concussions
• Kerryon Johnson missed six games last year with a knee injury

He was still the No. 1 Fantasy Back last Year

Given the way Gurley’s stock has fallen this draft season, you would think he busted last year. But he didn’t. Gurley was the No. 1 fantasy running back last year. In spite of missing two games.

Yes, he let you down in the fantasy Super Bowl, but that’s not something unique to Gurley. Take a look at the top-10 performers at every position for Week 16, every season. There are always a ton of guys who were on waiver wires just a few weeks prior.

70% of Todd Gurley is Better Than Most

Even if we’re right in assuming Gurley’s days as a workhorse are over, he’s still going to be a valuable fantasy asset. Gurley averaged 24.3 points and 20.1 points in PPR and standard leagues, respectively, over the last two seasons. Lop 30% off his total under McVay and Gurley would still generate enough fantasy points to rank RB6 or better over the last five years. If you’re even more Draconian and think Gurley’s production gets cut by 40%, he still projects as the 9th-best fantasy back in both standard and PPR formats. If you’re looking for a Doomsday Scenario and expect his production to get cut in half (50%), Gurley still projects as a top-15 player. Who else gives you a floor of RB15, and to get there you have to assume he’s only half as productive as he’s been for the last two years?

But what about Darrell Henderson?

The Rams traded up in the third round to select Darrell Henderson. The 5-foot-9, 200-pounder from the University of Memphis was at or near the top of most draft pundits rookie rankings, and he has the skill set to be a feature back. Since we saw what C.J. Anderson could do in McVay’s offense, in spite of being on the Street days before, fantasy managers are understandably excited by what Henderson can do in the same scheme. Our own Matt Waldman considers Henderson the best pass-catcher in the rookie class and thinks the Rams could use Henderson like the Saints use Alvin Kamara, limiting Gurley to a more traditional role on 1st and 2nd downs.

If Matt is right, all bets are off.

I’m of a different mind. I think Henderson will have a role, but I don’t think he’s going to get 30%-40% of the snaps immediately. McVay’s coaching history speaks to a single workhorse back. And McVay’s mentor – Kyle Shanahan – also has a long history of riding one workhorse back when possible. And their collective mentor – Mike Shanahan – also had great success using a single feature back.

And while Henderson may be a gifted receiver, Gurley is among the NFL's best, too.

Gurley's Receiving Stats (2017-18)

• 170 targets -- 3rd among NFL running backs
• 123 receptions -- 5th
• 1,368 yards -- 3rd
• 11.1 yards per reception -- 1st
• 10 receiving touchdowns -- Tied for 2nd

Your Homework Assignment – Watch Henderson in the Preseason

Don’t expect Gurley to see any preseason game action. It wouldn’t make sense to risk him with or without a knee concern. That means Darrell Henderson should be front and center. If Henderson shines, then things get a bit cloudy for Gurley. To be clear, when I say shine I mean if Henderson dominates practices, is the apple of beat writers’ eyes, and then gets starts with the first-team offense in the preseason and dominates. And when I say cloudy, I mean projecting Gurley with 65%-70% of his prior workload (which would still make him a Top-10 back). If, on the other hand, Henderson is fair to middling, or in a committee with Malcolm Brown, rest assured Gurley is in line to at worst pay back your second-round investment, and at best help you win another championship with another top-5 finish.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

Todd Gurley has a knee issue. It's potentially chronic. And if you're in a dynasty league, you should be worried. But if you're focused on winning a title in 2019, Gurley is a rare combination of a high floor and high ceiling. Gurley has been the No. 1 fantasy running back in each of the last two seasons, and yet is being drafted this year in the mid- to late second round. That more then prices in the risk his knee requires a managed workload. If Darrell Henderson is as good as advertised, and Gurley's workload is crimped by 30-40%, you've got yourself a top-10 fantasy back. In other words, you're drafting him at fair value. If, on the other hand, Gurley really is fine (as he maintains) and will remain the focal point of the Rams offense (as McVay contends), then you've drafted an early 1st-round value at a deep discount.

Other Viewpoints

Numberfire's J.J. Zachariason views things differently:

"Again, a healthy Todd Gurley would be the consensus first overall pick in drafts this year. If you're under the impression that Gurley still has an opportunity to be a bell cow in the LA backfield, then, sure, draft him at his current cost.

Evidence just seems to suggest this won't happen. The Rams didn't feature him in the playoffs. They traded up and drafted a running back with a Day 2 pick back in April. Reports are out there flat out stating that his touch ceiling may be limited.

And if that's the case, why would we draft Todd Gurley in the middle of the second round?"

ProFootballFocus' Jeff Ratcliffe sees things my way:

"While Gurley’s days as an elite bell-cow back may be in the past, the situation in Los Angeles doesn’t necessarily warrant as much concern as some in the fantasy industry might lead you to believe. Sure, his touches are almost certainly going to be reduced. But the Rams aren’t going to shift their backfield to a full-blown committee in 2019."