For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
GAMESTACKING. A quick revisit to a topic that I know has been discussed here before, but on a week where the Tampa Bay-Atlanta game features a pair of terrible defenses and a 52-point game total in Vegas, it merits a quick revisit. Sharp DFS players know that correlations win tournaments, which is why 95% of lineups in GPP contests contain a quarterback-receiver stack of some type. Over the past few years, however, stacking players from a singular game has become a winning strategy because scoring is often correlated, particularly when one team scores 30+ points. This week, we will see a lot of attention on the aforementioned TB-ATL game for these reasons; in turn, ownership on Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, and their respective receivers is going to be sky-high. My advice is to get exposure to this game and stack it accordingly, but to intentionally differentiate your lineup with < 5%-owned players elsewhere because there will be a lot of Matt Ryan-Julio Jones-Mike Evans rosters that also contain cheaper, popular players like Brian Hill, Miles Sanders, and Dallas Goedert--those rosters are dead before the games start because of their overall popularity. If you are aiming to go off-the-radar for your gamestacks this week, I like a few games to serve as alternatives for the game in Atlanta, namely Miami at Cleveland and Oakland at the Jets. Both contests feature defenses with questions or proven deficiencies and capable cheap offenses at low ownership. Build your rosters accordingly.
2019 FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Mason Rudolph | @CIN | $5,500 | 1% | - | «««« | Will go underowned due to Cleveland debacle. Soft spot. |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | @CLE | $5,000 | 2% | - | «««« | Suspensions on Browns D should elevate Fitz' ceiling. |
| Mitchell Trubisky | NYG | $5,100 | 3% | - | ««« | Matchup-based call. NYG secondary can fix his woes. |
| Sam Darnold | OAK | $5,800 | 2% | - | ««« | Oakland's pass funnel defense keeps him relevant. |
| Jameis Winston | @ATL | $6,200 | 13% | Yes | ««« | Cannot ignore in the week's most likely shootout. |
| Matt Ryan | TB | $6,700 | 17% | Yes | ««« | Highest floor/upside at the position this week. |
| Derek Carr | @NYJ | $6,100 | 3% | - | «« | Jets have been quietly getting throttled on defense. |
| Tom Brady | DAL | $6,000 | 6% | - | «« | Cheap. Disappointed versus easier opponent in last. |
| Jeff Driskel | @WAS | $5,500 | 3% | - | «« | Speedy QB is holding his own. Best matchup for him yet. |
| Russell Wilson | @PHL | $6,800 | 9% | - | « | Eagles' pass-funnel defense helps his prospects. |
| Drew Brees | CAR | $6,600 | 9% | - | « | In play, but high Kamara exposure = less Brees. |
| Dak Prescott | @NE | $6,000 | 2% | - | « | Red-hot, but Amari is hobbled and Belichick > Garrett. |
| Dwayne Haskins | DET | $4,900 | 1% | - | « | Small piece to stack with cheap receivers & Scarbrough. |
| Carson Wentz | SEA | $5,600 | 10% | - | « | 1x 300-yard game since Week #1. Limited upside. |
| Baker Mayfield | MIA | $5,900 | 9% | - | « | Great matchup, but only 11 TDs on the entire season. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: As outlined in the Tips section (above), nabbing players from the Buccaneer-Falcon game in Atlanta makes a lot of sense for both cash games and tournaments. The quarterback position is surprisingly thin for cash games and either of the quarterbacks from that game makes the most sense for those contests this weekend. The game features the 30th- and 27th-ranked DVOA pass defenses and questions abound within each team's respective backfield. Vegas is telling us that the game should shoot out, as evidenced by the slate-high 52-point game total, which means that we could roll with either of these quarterbacks in cash games. The recommendation is to build two cash game lineups, one with each quarterback featured, so as to diversify your rosters and minimize the possibility of negative variance. In tournaments, both are also in play, but be sure to build uniqueness into your rosters elsewhere or you will be drawing dead before lineups lock on Sunday afternoon.<
