For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LEVERAGING OWNERSHIP NUMBERS: Regular readers of this column know that I throw around the term "leverage" quite a bit when discussing tournament options. There are many ways to leverage different scenarios when creating GPP lineups, but one of my favorite things to do is to create leverage against high ownership by getting additional exposure to another player (or facet) of the same offense that would otherwise preclude success from the higher-owned player. A generic example is rostering a WR2 for a given team at 5% ownership when his WR1 stablemate is owned on 30% of rosters; if the WR2 scores a pair of touchdowns, it will be at the expense of the popular WR1 and accomplishes two goals: 1) a 'hit' on your wide receiver to help your chances at winning, and 2) immediately advances your roster over the 30% of teams that had the popular WR1 on their roster.
This week, there are multiple places where you can think about taking this approach. One example is leveraging Dalvin Cook's 25% ownership and instead rostering a Kirk Cousins to Adam Thielen (or Stefon Diggs) stack. If the Vikings score 25 points (as Vegas expects) and Cousins connects to Thielen on a pair of scores, there is virtually no way Cook can deliver 4x value on his hefty salary, which kills those rosters and elevates your own. A similar scenario could be envisioned for taking Alvin Kamara (6%) over Michael Thomas (21%) or Kyle Allen to Curtis Samuel (< 10%) over Christian McCaffrey (28%). The key is to understand when projected ownership is dramatically different from the likelihood of success (loosely defined by fantasy production divided by salary)--when that situation presents itself, you need to be able to execute on this strategy.
REVISED FORMAT:
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Tom Brady | @WAS | $6,500 | 5% | - | «««« | Highest team total on slate and only 5%? Yes, please. |
Andy Dalton | ARZ | $5,700 | 7% | - | «««« | Cinci receivers driving up exposure to Dalton. |
Lamar Jackson | @PIT | $7,100 | 8% | Yes | «««« | Poor BAL defense is helping LJ's fantasy numbers. |
Kirk Cousins | @NYG | $5,300 | 3% | - | ««« | Leverage play away from elevated Cook ownership. |
Joe Flacco | LAC | $4,700 | 2% | - | ««« | Chargers D is hurting. Nice price & plus matchup. |
Deshaun Watson | ATL | $6,700 | 12% | - | ««« | Excellent personnel matchups vs. ATL. Shootout? |
Chase Daniel | *LONDON* | $4,800 | 2% | - | ««« | Love the Chase-ARob stack for ~ $10K. |
Carson Wentz | NYJ | $6,100 | 10% | Yes | «« | Safe floor vs. NYJ. Fave GPP stack partner = Ertz. |
Matt Ryan | @HOU | $5,900 | 10% | - | «« | All 300+ yard games in 2019. 1st non-dome game, though. |
Aaron Rodgers | @DAL | $6,000 | 3% | - | «« | Loss of Adams hurts, but always in play. |
Kyle Allen | JAX | $5,100 | 2% | - | «« | Thudded to Earth in last. No Ramsey helps prospects. |
Philip Rivers | DEN | $5,800 | 4% | - | « | Small piece due to Chargers' high team total. |
Kyler Murray | @CIN | $6,300 | 7% | - | « | Trending in wrong direction of late. Lower than field. |
Jameis Winston | @NO | $6,200 | 7% | - | « | Don't believe he can put up 350+ in 3 straight weeks. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Our projections for quarterbacks have multiple options clustered near the top, in terms of sheer value (fantasy points divided by salary)--the list includes Mason Rudolph, Chase Daniel, Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, and Carson Wentz. Of those players, only Jackson and Wentz are safe enough for cash game play because the others all have a scenario where they could fail to deliver on their respective salaries. With Rudolph, we saw the Steelers employ a Wildcat formation on Monday Night Football, which can take away opportunity for him; with Chase Daniel, he plays in London, where the 5-hour time difference seems to affect different players at varying levels and his team is a 5-point favorite, which could also result in lesser opportunity if the Bears jump to an early lead (plus, he's Chase Daniel!); as for Matt Ryan, he enters this week with 300+ passing yards in every game this season, but Ryan historically underperforms on the road and one has to suspect that negative regression is forthcoming for the veteran quarterback. This leaves a pair of solid options in Lamar Jackson and Carson Wentz for cash games. Jackson comes at a premium price, but he has 33 carries over the past 3 games that have amounted to over 30+ DK points without considering points from passing; he gets a solid matchup against the Steelers, who shored up their secondary by adding Minkah Fitzpatrick a few weeks ago, but Jackson's speed will keep the Steelers honest and expose holes in that flawed secondary. In Philadelphia, the Eagles host the Jets off their bye week. The Birds have a slew of receiving options at different positions, which keeps opposing defenses guessing as to the next play, a scenario that bodes well for Carson Wentz, particularly when seeing that the Jets allowed back-to-back 300-yard passers entering this contest.
GPP: No team on the Week #5 main slate has a higher implied Vegas team total than the New England Patriots. Despite this fact, every Patriot player is entering Sunday with a projected ownership number of < 10%, including Tom Brady. It is entirely plausible that Sony