For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
LEVERAGING INFORMATION--THE SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PARADOX: Five years ago, the various DFS sites ran contests that largely spanned through Monday Night Football. As the sites evolved, they quickly realized that creating "churn" by offering multiple slates led to increased revenue, which is why we have Thursday-Monday, Sunday-early, Sunday late-only, Sunday early/late, Sunday night-Monday night, Monday-Thursday, etc., slates in today's DFS world. The majority of content to support those contests, including this article, is focused on the Sunday main slate (1 PM & 4 PM EST games), which means there is typically less public attention on those alternative games (Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights).
Why is this important? Well, for DraftKings and FanDuel, it isn't...but for Yahoo and FantasyDraft, where they still include the Sunday night game as part of their main slate, I have (anecdotally) found that ownership in that night game is lower than it should be based on the matchups, upside, and overall profitability. This week, the Cowboys will travel to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that nobody cares about now that Drew Brees is nursing a thumb injury. But that game has a slew of fantasy attraction and you can get a leg-up on your competition by backloading a lot of your tournament lineups with players from that game at reasonable, if not low, ownership levels. At quick glance, both Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Alvin Kamara stand out as stellar GPP options on less than 10% of rosters on FantasyDraft; Michael Thomas is even lower at less than 2%, in a game that should favor the Saints' passing attack. Thus, do not be afraid to dabble beyond DraftKings to take advantage of the lack of DFS coverage on this (and other) non-main slate game.
REVISED FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Jared Goff | TB | $6,300 | 5% | - | «««« | QBs have thrown for 300+ in last 2 games vs. TB. |
| Case Keenum | @NYG | $4,900 | 2% | - | ««« | Potential shootout with multiple cheap WR options. |
| Philip Rivers | @MIA | $6,200 | 5% | - | ««« | MIA: Allowed 3 or more TDs to all QBs faced. |
| Kyle Allen | @HOU | $5,200 | 2% | - | ««« | Solid in last. HOU D allows 6th most FPs to QB. |
| Kyler Murray | SEA | $6,000 | 6% | - | «« | Volume: 40+ attempts in every NFL start. |
| Russell Wilson | @ARZ | $6,100 | 14% | Yes | «« | ARZ secondary is horrid w/out Peterson. Crowd fave. |
| Patrick Mahomes II | @DET | $7,500 | 11% | Yes | «« | Lions could go run-heavy to minimize KC offense. |
| Deshaun Watson | CAR | $6,400 | 7% | - | «« | 30+ FPs in 2 of first 3 games = upside. |
| Matt Ryan | TEN | $5,900 | 4% | - | «« | Overlooked? Only concern is TEN slowing game down. |
| Josh Allen | NE | $5,600 | 1% | - | «« | Small piece (even with field). Pair with Beasley. |
| Matthew Stafford | KC | $5,500 | 7% | - | «« | Plus implied gamescript, but Bevell favors the run. |
| Lamar Jackson | CLE | $6,900 | 6% | Yes | « | Browns have to keep it close for Lamar to payoff. |
| Daniel Jones | WAS | $5,300 | 12% | Yes | « | Stellar in debut. 12% is a bit much for my liking. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: He is making my job easy, but Patrick Mahomes II has scored 30+ DK points in every game this season, a 4x multiplier on this week's $7.5K salary. He seems to do whatever he pleases, whenever he pleases on the field and brings the highest floor/upside of any quarterback on this (and every) DFS slate. If you can afford him, slot him in and move on. If the opportunity cost is too high to roster Mahomes because the rest of your roster is uncomfortably risky, take a look at Russell Wilson at a $1.4K savings. Wilson gets the third-most generous defense in the league to his position, one that has allowed no less than 25 DK points to every quarterback they have faced this season. At the lower end of the scale, rolling with Daniel Jones in his second career start in cash formats might induce angst, but he displayed maturity (and speed) against the Buccaneers, a better defense than he will face this Sunday.
GPP: Jared Goff tops the list of tournament quarterbacks this week. The Rams boast the second-highest team total on the Vegas boards and have a running back in Todd Gurley that they limit continue to limit. Goff is reasonably priced, has a bevy of receivers at his disposal, and faces a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed back-to-back 300-yard games to quarterbacks, including Daniel Jones' NFL debut and (a horribly inaccurate) Cam Newton. In the Meadowlands, you can consider both Case Keenum and the aforementioned Daniel Jones, both of whom are inexpensive and face a porous defense on the other side of their respective lines of scrimmage. Keenum is the preferred play because he will be owned at a fraction of the rate of Jones and he can easily be paired with a series of cheap receivers, all of whom can deliver 4x value on their respective salaries. In both cases (Keenum or Jones), feel free to "run it back" with a receiver (or running back) on the opposite team to complete the gamestack because this one could be a barnburner. Lastly, feel free to leverage Austin Ekeler's massive ownership by taking his quarterback, Philip Rivers, who is projected to be on only 5% of lineups despite averaging over 300 passing yards per game this season. The caveat with Rivers is that stacking him is largely limited to either Keenan Allen at ownership levels similar to Ekeler or Dontrelle Inman, whose coverage situation (Xavier Howard) is concerning.
