Photo: USA Today Sports

3 Reasons why Deshaun Watson is worth the investment

1. Watson was QB4 last year, answering all the looming questions after his rookie breakthrough
2. The Texans have prioritized fixing one of the league’s worst offensive lines
3. The receiving corps should be much improved, as long as injury rates normalize

Answering the Questions

Deshaun Watson was a divisive fantasy prospect last year. As a rookie, he was electric in six starts and played like a top-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback in that span. But he tore his ACL in practice and missed most of the season. Although his rehabilitation went well, the injury added to existing questions about Watson’s durability.

On top of that, his fantasy prowess wasn’t built on a foundation of impressive underlying metrics. His 9.3% touchdown rate was unsustainable by any measure, and his 3.9% interception rate was too high. He also completed just 61.8% of his passes, which is a pedestrian mark in today’s pass-heavy NFL. Optimists believed Watson’s play as a raw rookie gave him a floor few other starting quarterbacks could match. Pessimists wondered if Watson’s uninspiring completion rate, durability, and unsustainable touchdown rate would all lead to a mediocre second season.

The optimists were right.

• Durability – Watson played all 16 games, in spite of being sacked 62 times
• Accuracy – His completion rate jumped to 68.3% from 61.8%
• Touchdown Rate – Although his touchdown rate did normalize, at 5.1% it was among the league’s best
• Interception Rate – He cut his interception rate in half to 1.8%
• Consistency – His 8.3 yards per attempt as a rookie, was elite but came thanks to quite a few deep ball vertical routes. In 2018, he again averaged 8.3 yards per attempt on 2.5x more attempts

Putting “Offensive” in the Offensive Line

What Watson did last year is all the more impressive when you consider the pressure he faced behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Watson was sacked 62 times last year, an astonishing number that cannot be repeated for Watson to live up to his fantasy billing. For context, only seven quarterbacks have ever been sacked 60 or more times in a year: David Carr (2x), Randall Cunningham (2x), Steve Beuerlein, Jon Kitna, Neil Lomax, Ken O’Brien, and Watson. Watson was sacked more than 10% of his dropbacks.

Fortunately, there is hope for improvement. Let’s be clear, don’t expect jaw-dropping improvement akin to what we saw from the Colts line last year versus 2017, but considering how well Watson played in 2018, even modest growth could mean a lot. To that end, it’s conceivable the Texans could have three different starters to start the year:

• Seantrel Henderson – Henderson was the team’s starting right tackle last year but suffered a season-ending injury in the first game. He’s healthy and should be a massive improvement from Kendall Lamm, last year’s fill in.
• Tytus Howard – Houston chose the mammoth Howard with their first-round selection. Howard was a 3-year starter at little known Alabama State, but the Texans see a versatile road grader capable of starting at either tackle spot.
• Max Scharping – The Texans used their second-round pick on Scharping, who played both right and left tackle in college. He’ll likely play inside at one of the guard spots this year, but could also push for the right tackle job, which would allow Henderson to move to another spot on the line

A Little (Health) Luck will go a Long Way

Imagine what the Texans offense would look like without DeAndre Hopkins. The All-Pro receiver played all 16 games and caught 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns. He dominated regardless of the defensive opponent and did so in spite of fending off a litany of minor maladies including ankle, foot, hamstring and thumb issues. But Hopkins’ iron-man status was in stark contrast to the rest of the receiving corps.

Snap Count (% of Total Snaps), by Receiver

• DeAndre Hopkins – 16 games, 1,084 snaps (99%)
• Will Fuller – 7 games, 375 snaps (34%)
• Demaryius Thomas – 7 games, 359 snaps (33%)
• Keke Coutee – 6 games, 267 snaps (24%)
• DeAndre Carter – 7 games, 201 snaps (18%)
• Vyncint Smith – 5 games, 142 snaps (13%)
• Bruce Ellington – 3 games, 121 snaps (11%)
• Sammie Coates Jr – 12 games, 37 snaps (3%)

Fuller has missed nearly half of his games over two seasons but has been dynamic, particularly as a vertical scoring threat, when healthy. He tore his ACL last year but is progressing well in his rehab. For Coutee, prospects of a better season are even less daunting as he wasn’t dealing with structural issues; he just never got his hamstrings right. In retrospect, the team should have brought Coutee along slowly but were pressed into action by the lack of depth. They won’t make that same mistake again and, with proper conditioning, it’s not unusual to see a receiver plagued with hamstring woes one season make a full recovery in subsequent seasons.

Is There A Tight End in the House?

With ailing receivers and a bad offensive line, you might think Watson had to have an incredible collection of tight ends at his disposal. You would be wrong. Ryan Griffin led the team with 743 snaps and managed just 24 receptions for 305 yards and zero scores. The Texans were so non-plussed by their starter; they cut him after the NFL draft. Fellow rookies Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas combined for just 858 snaps and 37 receptions, 440 yards, and four touchdowns. The team added intriguing rookie Kahale Warring to the mix this year, as Griffin’s replacement. Can the trio of young tight ends give Watson the production other top quarterbacks get? Imagine if Watson had Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, or Eric Ebron at his disposal?

The Best Floor at the Position

It would be one thing if Watson struggled last year amidst injuries and offensive line problems. But he was the 4th-best fantasy quarterback, in spite of an almost comical number of headwinds. The Texans offensive line doesn’t need to become great, even a modest improvement toward the middle of the pack would be helpful. Will Fuller doesn’t have to become a Pro Bowler; he just needs to stay on the field for 12+ games. Keke Coutee doesn’t need to become the next Wes Welker; he just needs to provide a reliable third option. The trio of tight ends don’t need to morph into Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron; they just need to perform a bit above replacement level. If all those things happen, there’s no reason Watson can’t push for the No. 1 spot at the position (or No. 2 if you think Patrick Mahomes’ position is unassailable). And yet, we already know Watson can be elite with almost everything stacked against him; most NFL starting quarterbacks would fall out of fantasy relevance under the conditions Watson thrived last year.

Stats and Projections

Final Thoughts

While it's trendy to draft quarterbacks late, inevitably that mindset has its limits. If everyone waits, at some juncture the value proposition of diving into the quarterback pool starts being the most advantageous decision to make. It's great to convince yourself to wait until the 10th round for the 10th ranked quarterback as "good enough." But that assumes the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd ranked quarterbacks all went too early, thus creating a massive disparity in draft-day value. However, as late-round quarterback strategies have become the norm, particularly in more competitive leagues, there's a value arbitrage to not waiting. If you can draft the No. 2 or 3 quarterback on your board in the 6th or 7th round, it makes all those geniuses waiting until the 10th for their QB10 seems a lot less brilliant. If Watson, who is the most enticing fantasy prospect at the position not named Patrick Mahomes, is available in the fifth round or later, you're doing yourself a disservice passing on him.

Other Thoughts

Andrew Fleischer from 4for4 agrees with my enthusiasm for Watson:

"Watson heads into the 2019 preseason two years removed from his ACL tear, and he’s reportedly been able to focus entirely on mastering the offense. With a bit more luck on the injury front from Fuller, continued health from Hopkins, and some second-year improvement from Keke Coutee, Watson should have all the weapons he needs to lay siege to the fantasy QB1 throne."

PFF's Daniel Kelley calls Watson a boring but worth it fantasy pick in the 5th round:

"My brain says Watson isn’t actually a boring pick, except for the fact that he’s not only behind Patrick Mahomes in current ADP (which makes sense), but also behind Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers (which doesn’t, to me or Jeff Ratcliffe). Watson should be the favorite to be the No. 2 fantasy quarterback this year, and he probably has the best non-Mahomes chance to finish No. 1. If you’re going to go quarterback on the early side, go for the upside."

-- Jason Wood (Twitter: @FBGWood)