The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1: 184.02 points
DID cash
Finish: 5th out of 40 teams
TEAM #2: 165.62 points
did NOT cash
Finish: 27th out of 40 teams
CASH LINE: 177.02 points
The Overlap
Lamar Jackson topped the charts at the quarterback position in Week 16 with a stunning $8,000 price tag. In a prime matchup against a struggling Cleveland Browns defense, 70-percent of sharp NFL DFS players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings paid-up at quarterback and built their lineups around the likely 2019 MVP.
Last week, Lamar Jackson was the initial "Projected Sharp Play," but as information poured in throughout the week, Austin Hooper stood out as the most likely, but not glaringly-obvious, selection to build sharp NFL cash games around. Ultimately, the initial logic listed in the Week 16 iteration of The Sharp Report prevailed, as Jackson was one of the sharpest plays on the slate.
Last week's analysis used to initially project Lamar Jackson as a Sharp Play:
Ahead of Week 16, there is a general lack of clarity surrounding most skill positions, as injuries mount late in the season that may ultimately have a dramatic effect on projections. Early in the week, it is tough to tell how most of those situations will play out. However, one secure and consistent situation is the Baltimore Ravens' offense, spearheaded by the eventual 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson's floor of rushing production (at least 6.6 DraftKings points via rushing production alone in 12 out of 14 games this season) is unmatched, and even at his incredible $8,000 price tag, he projects as one of the sharpest plays of the week in Week 16. This weekend, Jackson and the Ravens head to Cleveland to take on the Browns in an attempt to not only avenge one of their two losses this season but also secure home-field-advantage throughout the playoffs (before the neutral-site Super Bowl in Miami.) The Ravens enter this game as whopping 10-point favorites against a reeling Browns defense that just allowed Kyler Murray to accumulate 56 rushing yards on 8 carries last weekend. In a game projected to total nearly 50 points, the Ravens are expected to score nearly 30-points themselves; the 2nd-highest implied team total on the DraftKings main slate of games. Overall, it is tough to imagine Lamar Jackson, the number-one quarterback in David Dodds' h-value rankings (as it stands on Wednesday morning,) not being a driving factor behind another Ravens offensive outburst this weekend. Even at $8,000, Jackson projects to be the most popular quarterback option amongst sharps this weekend.
Dion Lewis and DeAndre Washington
Dion Lewis and DeAndre Washington
In Week 16, a pair of bargain-bin running backs provided incredible value to allow players to pay up elsewhere at positions like quarterback and wide receiver. The reasoning behind sharps locking in both Dion Lewis and DeAndre Washington was nearly identical, and ultimately Lewis made his way into 80-percent of lineups while Washington was a centerpiece for 97.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Midweek, the Oakland Raiders announced that Josh Jacobs, the team's original starting running back, would not play in Week 16. DeAndre Washington, who had already filled in for Jacobs earlier in the season when he was unable to go, slotted into the team's starting lineup at just $4,000. In his previous start, Washington played 63-percent of the team's offensive snaps, carrying the ball 14 times while also hauling in 6 of his 7 targets on the day en route to 21.6 DraftKings points. In Week 16, the Raiders faced off against the Los Angeles Chargers and their middle-of-the-road run defense. The projected volume and value that Washington offered in Week 16 ultimately prevailed, as he was the most-rostered player in high-stakes cash games.
On Sunday morning, the Tennessee Titans announced that Derrick Henry would be inactive, moving Dion Lewis into a starting role in the team's backfield. Lewis had not started a game for the Titans at all leading up to Week 16, but in a backfield devoid of viable options, he was likely to play a hefty majority of the team's offensive snaps against the New Orleans Saints. In spite of a difficult matchup against New Orleans' sixth-ranked run defense (according to fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs,) Dion Lewis' projected receiving volume counteracted the lack of expected rushing efficiency.
In total, at $4,000 and $4,300, respectively, DeAndre Washington and Dion Lewis needed to provide little production to pay off their bottom-dollar price tags in Week 16. These savings, especially on a slate with top-end options elsewhere, were essential to building a sharp cash-game lineup. Ultimately, the projected volume for each player trumped all other factors, including a tough matchup in the case of Dion Lewis.
Julio Jones and Michael Thomas
The extreme salary-saving options at running back and tight end in Week 16, players were able to roster both Michael Thomas and Julio Jones in lineups rather than choosing one of the two. Thomas topped the charts at $9,300 while Jones checked in as the 2nd-most-expensive wideout on the slate at $8,000. When all was said and done, Michael Thomas made his way into 85-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, while Julio Jones was featured in 65-percent of lineups.
Julio Jones stood out as an elite option at the wide receiver position, as he topped the charts as the number-one player in David Dodds' h-value rankings at the wide receiver position. Week-in and week-out, this has been a signal pointing DFS players directly to the sharpest options at wide receiver. In Week 14, Calvin Ridley, Atlanta's number-two pass-catching option, went down with an abdomen injury that landed him on the Injured Reserve and ended his season. Then, in Week 15, the first game without Ridley, Julio Jones commanded a stunning 20 targets, converting them into 13 receptions for 134 yards and 2 scores on the day. In Week 16, Jones and the Falcons had the third-highest implied team total on the slate, as there was expected to be no shortage of offense at home in the dome of Mercedes Benz Stadium, which is always a bonus for offenses, especially during the winter months.
Throughout what has turned into a record-breaking 2019 campaign for Michael Thomas, he has proven to epitomize what it means to be matchup-proof for the New Orleans Saints. Thomas has commanded at least 10 targets in 12 out of his 15 games this season while posting at least 28.4 DraftKings points in 6 out of his last 7 games. Even at $9,300, Thomas' volume and projected production far outpaced his price tag, as he needed 10 receptions to tie the all-time record for receptions in a single season. It seemed inevitable that Thomas would at least tie the record (which he ultimately broke) in his Week 16 matchup against Tennessee's middle-of-the-road pass defense. Thomas checked in at number-two in David Dodds' h-value rankings for Week 16, with a substantial gap between him and the third-best player at the wide receiver position.
Atop the player pool at the wide receiver position, Michael Thomas and Julio Jones stood out as two of the top overall plays on the entire Week 16 main slate of games. Both players projected for well-over 20 points, dominating David Dodds' h-value rankings entering Sunday afternoon. Both came through for their sharp backers, as Thomas posted 34.5 DraftKings points, and Jones registered 29.8 DraftKings points himself.
(Last week's analysis used to project Hooper as the Sharp Play of the Week)
At just $4,400, Austin Hooper stands out as this weekend's top option at the tight end position. Compared to other top-end tight ends, the savings he offers will be essential for building a sharp cash-game lineup in Week 16. Another reason for Hooper's viability is the ability to gain exposure to Atlanta's high-volume passing attack against a week Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The Atlanta Falcons are projected to score over 27 points this weekend, the 3rd-hightes total on the entire slate, and exposure to this offense will be a priority for many sharp NFL DFS players this weekend. Initially, Julio Jones comes to mind as the premier pass-catching offense from this unit; however, with Michael Thomas on a record-pace this season, it is tough to justify rostering Jones instead of Thomas. The next-best option for exposure to this passing attack is Austin Hooper, who has registered at least five targets in every game this season. Expect sharp NFL DFS players to save some salary with this top-tier tight end option this weekend, as Hooper's meager $4,400 price will be essential to fit top-end options into lineups elsewhere.
Next Week's Sharp Play
Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys have a must-win game against the Washington Redskins ahead of themselves if they want to have any outside shot at making the playoffs as the NFC East champions. The Cowboys enter this game as 10.5-point favorites over the Redskins, which typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack for the victors. The Cowboys' offense could trend even further in this direction if the reports of Dak Prescott's ailing shoulder are to be believed. The Washington Redskins have also allowed at least 100-yards rushing to each of the last 3 starting running backs they have faced. Elliott, the perfect embodiment of the modern bell-cow running back, rarely leaves the field, playing at least 77-percent of Dallas' offensive snaps in every non-blowout game since Week 2. Additionally, Tony Pollard, Elliott's rookie backup, fumbled the ball away on a critical third down last week on one of his two carries, which will not bode well for his case for increased usage going forward in 2019. Elliott has tallied at least 20 carries 7 times this season while surpassing 100 rushing yards on 6 occasions already, and this elite matchup is a fantastic opportunity for Ezekiel Elliott to add another tally to both columns. Expect Elliott, even at his top-tier price tag, to be a staple of sharp cash lineups in the final week of the 2019 regular season.
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)
- 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 11: Brian Hill- 4.3 FanDuel points (0.7x value)/4.8 DraftKings points (1.0x value)
- 74 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 12: Alvin Kamara- 14.7 FanDuel points (1.8x value)/19.2 DraftKings points (2.3x value)
- 90 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 13: Davante Adams- 21.4 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.4 DraftKings points (3.5x value)
- 45 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 14: Deshaun Watson- 30.08 FanDuel points (3.9x value)/30.08 DraftKings points (4.6x value)
- 37.5 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 15: Chris Carson- 26.2 FanDuel points (3.5x value)/29.7 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 50 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 16: Austin Hooper- 11.7 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/15.2 DraftKings points (3.5x value)
- 82.5 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
