The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
THIS WEEK'S CASH LINE: 165.12
TEAM #1: DID cash
Finish: 11th/40, 170.16 points
TEAM #2: did NOT cash
Finish: 31st/40, 147.72 points
The Overlap
Patrick Laird
Patrick Laird, who recently assumed the number-one role in the Miami Dolphins' backfield, was a premier target for Week 15 cash games thanks to his bottom-dollar price at the running back position. At just $4,500, Laird made his way into 60-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings last weekend.
Patrick Laird and the Miami Dolphins made a trip up north to East Rutherford, New Jersey, for a Week 15 clash with the struggling New York Giants last weekend. While the Dolphins were still 3.5-point underdogs in the game, Laird's growing role in Miami's backfield caught the eye of many sharps. Last weekend, Laird played a season-high 82-percent of the team's offensive snaps in a game the Dolphins attempted to get him the ball 20 times (via 15 carries and 5 targets, which he converted into 4 receptions.) That game also marked the 3rd time in 4 weeks that Laird commanded at least 5 receptions in a game, and he accumulated at least 7.8 DraftKings points through the air in those 3 outings. Although the matchup against the New York Giants was a rough one, as the Giants' run defense is the undoubted strength of the unit, the projected workload and price made Laird an elite candidate for cash games in Week 16. Ultimately, Laird only converted his 14 touches (12 carries and 2 receptions on 5 targets) into 7.4 DraftKings points, falling short of reaching value on the week. However, the process behind rostering Laird as a salary-saving number-three running back in cash games was sound.
Saquon Barkley
On the opposite side of the Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants Week 15 matchup, Saquon Barkley stuck out as a top-end cash-game running back thanks to an elite matchup at home. When all was said and done, Barkley was rostered by 72.5-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, and he more than paid off his $7,700 price tag.
While Saquon Barkley had been suffering through a bit of a sophomore slump leading up to Week 15, as he hadn't eclipsed 100 rushing yards since Week 2 or found the end zone since Week 7, a soft matchup landed him directly in the crosshairs for sharps when building cash lineups. The Miami Dolphins' defense grades as one of the worst in the league in almost every regard, as they typically face high-volume, allow the 2nd-most rushing yards, and the 10th-most yards per carry in the league. Additionally, as 3.5-point favorites, the Giants were expected to rely heavily upon the ground game to secure a rare victory in the 2019 season. As the team's bell-cow running back, playing over 94-percent of offensive snaps and carrying the ball at least 17 times in each of the team's last 3 games, Saquon Barkley projected to be the primary beneficiary of this elite matchup. Lastly, with Barkley's strong floor of receiving involvement, he projected as an especially strong play in Week 15. Last weekend proved to be a massive bounce-back game for Barkley, as he eclipsed 100-yards for the 3rd time all season, found the end zone for just the 3rd and 4th times this season, and also tallied his first 20-carry game of the year. At $7,700, Barkley made the 72.5-percent of players who locked him in at running back very happy with a 33.3-DraftKings point performance against the Dolphins' porous run defense.
(Last week's analysis used to project Carson as the Sharp Play of the Week)
Unfortunately, last week on Sunday Night Football, Rashaad Penny, Seattle's number-two running back, went down with an apparent knee injury that is expected to keep him out for the remainder of the season. Penny had just begun to assume a significant role in Seattle's offense for the first time after commanding a first-round selection in last year's NFL Draft, but without him, Chris Carson is once again poised to assume a bell-cow role in Seattle's backfield. Carson, even with Penny in the mix, posted his 7th 20-carry game of the season just 2 weeks ago, and now, without Penny, Carson is a near-lock for almost 20-carries this weekend against Carolina. The Seattle Seahawks enter this weekend's game against the Panthers as six-point favorites, which should foster an especially run-heavy offensive attack from what is already one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. Additionally, the Panthers' run defense grades as one of the worst in the NFL, allowing over 5.0 yards per carry and 24 rushing touchdowns on the season. Overall, Carson, at $7,500, provides one of the strongest floors of production this weekend and he will likely make his way into the bulk of sharp NFL cash lineups here in Week 15.
Chris Conley
At wide receiver, an injury to D.J. Chark, Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars projected to open up significant volume for a handful of underpriced wide receivers. In the end, at $3,600, sharps settled on Chris Conley as the optimal option for cash games in a soft matchup against the Oakland Raiders.
D.J. Chark, Jr., the Jaguars' number-one wide receiver this season, missed Week 15's game against the Oakland Raiders due to an ankle injury. Without Chark, Jr., who has commanded approximately 8.15 targets per game this season, Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook were primed to assume larger roles in the Jaguars' passing attack. Between Conley and Westbrook, Conley offered the biggest savings, costing just $600 more than the minimum price on DraftKings last weekend, and he also reasonably could have been projected as the team's number-one receiver on the weekend. When active, Conley's WOPR, a metric that accounts for how frequently a player is targeted along with how valuable those targets are (via air yards,) of 0.42 is the second-highest on the team behind Chark, while Westbrook follows closely behind at 0.41. Additionally, even when Chark has been active, Chris Conley had commanded at least 7 targets in 5 out of his last 7 outings leading up to last week's game against the Raiders' 31st-ranked pass defense, according to net yards per attempt allowed. Overall, the dramatic savings that Conley offered, along with his comparable receiving metrics, led sharps to favor him over Dede Westbrook in Week 15 cash games. 47.5-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 were delighted to see Conley find the end zone not once, but twice in last week's game, en-route to an impressive 20.9-DraftKings point day.
Jarvis Landry
Jarvis Landry and the Cleveland Browns made a trip down to Arizona to face off with the Cardinals' porous secondary in a Week 15 clash that was expected to produce points in bunches. Sharps settled on Jarvis Landry as the ideal way to gain exposure to Cleveland's passing attack in the game, as he was rostered by 25-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings in Week 15.
Jarvis Landry has emerged as the number-one wide receiver in the Cleveland Browns' offense since their bye week in Week 7. In the 8 games since the bye, Landry's WOPR of 0.69 is the best on the team, and also one of the best in the entire league, as he is commanding a high volume of more valuable targets than he has in years past. Since the bye week, Jarvis Landry's receiving volume has been consistent, with at least 7 targets in 7 straight games, and at least 10 targets in 5 out of those 7 outings. A soft matchup against Arizona's horrific pass defense, which has allowed 11 different players to surpass the century mark through the air, highlighted this offense as one of the best passing attacks to gain exposure to in Week 15. Additionally, Jarvis Landry topped the charts as the number-one player in David Dodds' h-value rankings last weekend, which has proven time and time again to be an elite signal for sharp wide receiver selection. Overall, at $6,700, Jarvis Landry and the Cleveland Browns' offense struggled as a whole, as they put up only 24 points on 241 yards through the air against the Arizona Cardinals, one of the worst offensive outputs against Arizona's defense this season.
Next Week's Sharp Play
Lamar Jackson
Ahead of Week 16, there is a general lack of clarity surrounding most skill positions, as injuries mount late in the season that may ultimately have a dramatic effect on projections. Early in the week, it is tough to tell how most of those situations will play out. However, one secure and consistent situation is the Baltimore Ravens' offense, spearheaded by the eventual 2019 MVP, Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson's floor of rushing production (at least 6.6 DraftKings points via rushing production alone in 12 out of 14 games this season) is unmatched, and even at his incredible $8,000 price tag, he projects as one of the sharpest plays of the week in Week 16. This weekend, Jackson and the Ravens head to Cleveland to take on the Browns in an attempt to not only avenge one of their two losses this season but also secure home-field-advantage throughout the playoffs (before the neutral-site Super Bowl in Miami.) The Ravens enter this game as whopping 10-point favorites against a reeling Browns defense that just allowed Kyler Murray to accumulate 56 rushing yards on 8 carries last weekend. In a game projected to total nearly 50 points, the Ravens are expected to score nearly 30-points themselves; the 2nd-highest implied team total on the DraftKings main slate of games. Overall, it is tough to imagine Lamar Jackson, the number-one quarterback in David Dodds' h-value rankings (as it stands on Wednesday morning,) not being a driving factor behind another Ravens offensive outburst this weekend. Even at $8,000, Jackson projects to be the most popular quarterback option amongst sharps this weekend.
Update: Lamar Jackson's top-dollar $8,000 price tag is going to be extremely difficult to fit into cash lineups this weekend on a slate bereft of salary-saving options, aside from Oakland running back DeAndre Washington, who will certainly be a fixture across sharp cash lineups this weekend. However, since he appears to be a somewhat-obvious lock-and-load cash-game option at just $4,000, it would feel like cheating to list him as the Sharp Play of the Week. Instead, I will use this short blurb to simply say that he will likely eclipse 90-percent ownership in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings this weekend. As a result of this lack of value, Lamar Jackson is unlikely to be as popular as initially expected.
Austin Hooper
At just $4,400, Austin Hooper stands out as this weekend's top option at the tight end position. Compared to other top-end tight ends, the savings he offers will be essential for building a sharp cash-game lineup in Week 16. Another reason for Hooper's viability is the ability to gain exposure to Atlanta's high-volume passing attack against a week Jacksonville Jaguars defense. The Atlanta Falcons are projected to score over 27 points this weekend, the 3rd-hightes total on the entire slate, and exposure to this offense will be a priority for many sharp NFL DFS players this weekend. Initially, Julio Jones comes to mind as the premier pass-catching offense from this unit; however, with Michael Thomas on a record-pace this season, it is tough to justify rostering Jones instead of Thomas. The next-best option for exposure to this passing attack is Austin Hooper, who has registered at least five targets in every game this season. Expect sharp NFL DFS players to save some salary with this top-tier tight end option this weekend, as Hooper's meager $4,400 price will be essential to fit top-end options into lineups elsewhere.
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)
- 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 11: Brian Hill- 4.3 FanDuel points (0.7x value)/4.8 DraftKings points (1.0x value)
- 74 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 12: Alvin Kamara- 14.7 FanDuel points (1.8x value)/19.2 DraftKings points (2.3x value)
- 90 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 13: Davante Adams- 21.4 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.4 DraftKings points (3.5x value)
- 45 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 14: Deshaun Watson- 30.08 FanDuel points (3.9x value)/30.08 DraftKings points (4.6x value)
- 37.5 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 15: Chris Carson- 26.2 FanDuel points (3.5x value)/29.7 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 50 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
