The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
THIS WEEK'S CASH LINE: 157.50
TEAM #1: DID cash
TEAM #2: did NOT cash
The Overlap
Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey tops the charts as the most expensive option on DraftKings slates week after week in 2019 thanks to his incredible volume and efficiency both on the ground and through the air. In Week 13, McCaffrey made his way into 92.5-percent of lineups in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Christian McCaffrey's workload this season has been unbelievable, tallying over 20 touches in every game except for 2 leading up to Week 13. Additionally, McCaffrey had either found the end zone or registered 100+ rushing or receiving yards in every game except for 1 leading up to this matchup with the Washington Redskins. McCaffrey has consistently been one of the most popular running back options in high-stakes cash games, even at his sky-high price of $10,500. His consistent appearance in the bulk of sharp cash lineups signals what the sharps believe to be an inefficiency in the DraftKings pricing algorithm. McCaffrey topped the charts as David Dodds' number-one running back, according to his h-value score with a total over 20-percent higher than any other running back. In a game that Carolina entered as over 10-point favorites, the Panthers' offense was expected to rely heavily upon their number-one back and the run game. Although that did not ultimately come to fruition, and McCaffrey only scored 17.2 DraftKings points, his 2nd-lowest total of the season, the process behind locking the 3rd-year running back into lineups was strong. At $10,500, a strong matchup and a consistently-uncanny workload made Christian McCaffrey the most popular running back option on the slate, as over 92-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings locked him in at running back.
Miles Sanders
Miles Sanders, in the absence of Jordan Howard, Philadelphia's other top running back option, assumed a bell-cow-like role in the Eagles' offense in Week 13 against the Miami Dolphins. Sanders' cheap price and strong matchup made him an elite option for cash games, as he was rostered by 85-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
With Howard watching from the sidelines, Miles Sandes was poised for another heavy workload in Week 13 against the Miami Dolphins. Sanders played over 80-percent of Philadelphia's offensive snaps in each of the last 2 games without Howard, and his price had barely moved entering last weekend's game. At just $5,400, it was tough to justify not rostering a bell-cow running back at his price against the Miami Dolphins' porous defense. On the season, the Dolphins run defense ranks in the bottom-six of the league in rushing attempts defended, rushing yards allowed, and yards per carry allowed. In short, the Dolphins' defense is a disaster across the board, and Philadelphia was expected to capitalize on this weakness as 10.5-point favorites in the game. As heavy favorites, the Eagles were also expected to deploy a run-heavy offensive attack, which would have meant a heavy dose of Miles Sanders throughout the afternoon. Once again, the heavy favorite underwhelmed, limiting Sanders' rushing volume; however, he made up for it with his receiving production. When all was said and done in Week 13, Sanders posted 21.5 DraftKings points at just $5,400, making the 85-percent of sharp NFL DFS players that rostered him look like geniuses for sticking with the rookie running back in spite of underwhelming performances in recent weeks.
(Last week's analysis used to project Adams as a sharp play)
Davante Adams has recorded double-digit targets in all three games since he returned from a toe injury that kept him out for over a month earlier in the season. This weekend, Adams tops the charts as David Dodds' number-one wide receiver in h-value, which is a strong signal for sharp wide receiver selection. His $7,000 price tag is perplexing considering his consistently-large role in the team's passing game. This weekend, Adams' volume pairs up with an elite matchup against the New York Giants' horrific secondary to make him one of the best pass-catching options on the DraftKings main slate of games. Expect Davante Adams to make his way into the bulk of sharp cash lineups in Week 13, as he will not be too difficult to fit at $7,000.
Tyler Boyd
With Andy Dalton returning to action in a soft matchup against the New York Jets, Tyler Boyd stood out as a fantastic salary-saving option at wide receiver in Week 13. Ultimately, Boyd was rostered by 35-percent of sharp NFL DFS players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50, and he did not disappoint.
Zac Taylor, the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals, announced that Andy Dalton would resume his duties as the starting quarterback for the team in Week 13. Although he was originally benched as a result of a struggling offense in favor of a rookie, Ryan Finley, that impressed throughout the preseason, Finley was clearly not ready to lead an NFL offense at this stage in his career. Cincinnati's offense went from bad to worse with Finley at the helm, and therefore the change back to Dalton increased the viability of Bengals' pass-catchers across the board last weekend. Tyler Boyd had also been vocal about his displeasure with the lack of volume he was getting in the Finley-led passing attack. Across the 8 games Andy Dalton started to open the season, Boyd registered 10+ targets in 5 of them. In the subsequent 3 started by Finley, Boyd posted 0 10+ target games, including a game with a shocking 3-target, 1-reception, 0-yard stat line on the day. Boyd's projected efficiency and volume with Dalton under center were both expected to spike in Week 13, at least relative to what they were with Finley throwing him the football. Lastly, as just 2.5-point underdogs, this was expected to be a competitive game, but the Bengals were expected to come up just short. Typically, when playing from behind, the Bengals deploy an exceptionally pass-happy offensive attack, which increased the potential number of targets available for Tyler Boyd in the game. Ultimately, at just $5,500, 32.5-percent of sharps turned to Tyler Boyd as a salary-saving wide receiver option in Week 13. Boyd did not disappoint, as he posted 16.9 DraftKings points in his first 10+ target game since Week 8.
Next Week's Sharp Play
Deshaun Watson
In Week 14, the go-to quarterback option amongst sharp NFL DFS players will likely be Deshaun Watson in cash games. Watson and the Houston Texans play host to the Denver Broncos in a game that the Texans are projected to win by about 10 points. Although a presumably dominant victory like this typically leads to a run-heavy offensive attack, the Houston Texans lack a reliable running game, and Deshaun Watson typically thrives in these situations. Although Vic Fangio's Broncos opened the season as an impressive defensive unit, injuries have decimated their pass-rush. Bradley Chubb went down earlier this season with an injury that will keep him sidelined until 2020, and Von Miller missed last week's game with a knee injury. Miller, as one of the most-impactful pass-rushers in the NFL, is a critical component to Denver's defense, and his absence would be devastating to the unit. Over the last three weeks, when they've been bit the hardest by the proverbial injury bug, the Denver Broncos have allowed three multi-touchdown performances from opposing quarterbacks. As one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, Watson should have no trouble adding a fourth tally to that list in Week 14, especially if Von Miller is watching from the sidelines. Lastly, since the Texans are at home this weekend, the game will be played indoors at NRG Stadium. Playing indoors in December is a significant advantage for offenses in fantasy football, as they are shielded from any adverse weather conditions associated with the cold weather. Expect Watson to be the most popular quarterback option in cash games for the sharpest NFL DFS players in Week 14.
Previously Projected Sharp Plays
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 5: Auden Tate- 10.1 FanDuel points (1.9x value)/11.6 DraftKings points (3.3x value)
- 94.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Matt Ryan- 30.94 FanDuel points (3.8x value)/33.94 DraftKings points (5.3x value)
- 35.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 6: Leonard Fournette- 14.8 FanDuel points (2.0x value)/17.8 DraftKings points (2.7x value)
- 65.7 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 7: Cooper Kupp- 8.0 FanDuel points (1.0x value)/11.0 DraftKings points (1.5x value)
- 49.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 8: Courtland Sutton- 8.7 FanDuel points (1.45x value)/10.2 DraftKings points (1.92x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 9: Nick Chubb- 11.1 FanDuel points (1.4x value)/13.1 DraftKings points (1.8x value)
- 24.0 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 10: Michael Thomas- 21.7 FanDuel points (2.5x value)/31.2 DraftKings points (3.8x value)
- 88 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 11: Brian Hill- 4.3 FanDuel points (0.7x value)/4.8 DraftKings points (1.0x value)
- 74 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 12: Alvin Kamara- 14.7 FanDuel points (1.8x value)/19.2 DraftKings points (2.3x value)
- 90 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 13: Davante Adams- 21.4 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.4 DraftKings points (3.5x value)
- 45 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
