The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
The Overlap
Daniel Jones' second career start came against the struggling Washington Redskins last weekend. Jones checked in at just $5,300 on the DraftKings main slate after a wildly successful NFL debut against the Tampa Bay Buccanneers. The sharpest NFL DFS players put their faith in Jones to pay off his bottom-dollar price tag at the quarterback position, as 50-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 rostered New York's rookie quarterback.
The Giants entered week four as three-point favorites over the Washington Redskins fresh off a 32-point outburst in Daniel Jones' first career NFL start. In his debut, Jones thew for 336 yards and 2 scores on the road against the Buccanneers, while finding the end zone twice on the ground as well. New York's offense with Jones under center improved leaps and bounds from where it was with Eli Manning at the helm. Jones' athleticism as a young quarterback opened up parts of the playbook that many did not know the Giants had, like the zone read the Giants used for Jones to run for one of his touchdowns. The Washington Redskins' secondary struggled mightily through the first three weeks of the season, allowing every quarterback they faced leading up to this game to throw for three touchdowns. DraftKings barely adjusted Daniel Jones' price following his week three explosion against Tampa Bay. The $5,300 price tag coupled with an elite matchup against the Washington Redskins highlighted the rookie as the premier salary-saving option at the quarterback position in week four. Daniel Jones finished the day with just 14.3 DraftKings points, but at his low price, this performance still allowed for sharp players to build winning lineups with the top-end options elsewhere.
Why Daniel Jones?
- Bottom-dollar price at the quarterback position with proven rushing upside.
- Home matchup against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.
The Los Angeles Chargers traveled across the country to take on the Miami Dolphins in the midst of what appears to be a full-force tanking effort from Miami. Austin Ekeler has dominated opposing defenses in his short-lived time as the Chargers' starter, and even an $8,000 price tag was not high enough to deter the sharp players from building cash lineups around Ekeler. 78.6-percent of sharps rostered Austin Ekeler in week four, and he rewarded these players with a 2-touchdown 29.2-DraftKings point performance.
Week four against the Miami Dolphins will likely be Austin Ekeler's last start for the Los Angeles Chargers for the near-future following the return of Melvin Gordon after ending his holdout mid-week. Gordon suited up for the game against Miami, but after just a few days of practice, he was not going to play a substantial amount. This left Ekeler to handle the load one final time as the team's starter in a game where the Chargers were 15-point favorites. As such heavy favorites, the Chargers were expected to enact an extremely run-heavy gameplan to preserve the victory over the NFL's weakest team. Austin Ekeler also has had a sizable role in Los Angeles' passing game in 2019. The Los Angeles Chargers lost their top tight end, Hunter Henry, to a potentially season-ending knee injury after week one. They also entered this game without their number-two wide receiver, Mike Williams, as he sat out to heal a back injury that plagued him all week. The absence of these two targets left a sizable hole in the Chargers' passing attack, and Ekeler was poised to help fill this void. Ultimately, Austin Ekeler's top-end price tag of $8,000 was not enough to deter sharps from building around him in cash games in week four, and he rewarded them with a near-30-point performance.
Why Austin Ekeler?
- Bell-cow running back on the most heavily-favored team on the DraftKings' main slate of games.
- Running back with a consistent and sizable role in the passing game.
Another Los Angeles Chargers offensive weapon appeared in the majority of sharp cash lineups in week four, as Keenan Allen was rostered by 77.1-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. Allen opened the season with three straight top-end fantasy performances, and he was one (perhaps erroneous) offensive pass interference from another monster day in week four.
Keenan Allen has established himself as one of the NFL's best wide receivers over recent years, and the first month of the 2019 season has been no different. After Hunter Henry went down with a knee injury after week one, Keenan Allen stepped up his play with back-to-back 15+ target games in weeks two and three. Mike Williams, the Chargers' number-two wide receiver, missed week four due to a back injury. Williams' absence may have led to Keenan Allen seeing higher-leverage targets in and around the end zone, which is where Williams has thrived in his young career. The Chargers, while they were hefty favorites, were projected by the betting market to close in on 30-points against the Dolphins. In a 30-point outing for Los Angeles, Keenan Allen's likelihood of contributing to the scoring effort was sky-high. While he ultimately did not find the end zone, the process behind rostering Keenan Allen at $7,600 was sound: he's one of the highest-volume pass-catchers in the NFL, and in week four he faced off against one of the league's worst secondaries.
LEARNING POINT
In hindsight, however, Allen's role in the offense was already as large as anybody could have reasonably expected it to reach. Following multiple 15+ target games with Mike Williams playing, a 20-target expectation without Williams would have been ill-advised. Keenan Allen's projected volume of targets in the absence of Mike Williams should not have changed very much, leading up to week four. Instead, only the quality and fantasy value of his targets should have been adjusted, assuming that Philip Rivers would rely upon Allen more heavily in and around the end zone without Williams. This is not to say Allen was not a strong play in week four, he was, but the justification behind rostering Keenan Allen may not have been entirely correct.
Why Keenan Allen?
- Unmatched receiving volume on a team projected to total nearly 30 points.
- Expected to see a larger or more valuable role in the offense in the absence of the team's number-two wide receiver.
Heading into week four, the health of the Redskins' wide receiving corps was in question. Sunday morning, Terry McLaurin, the team's number-one wide receiver, was announced out due to a hamstring injury he suffered in practice throughout the week. The absence of McLaurin pushed Paul Richardson Jr into a much larger role in Washington's passing game. Ultimately, 48.6-percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings rostered Paul Richardson Jr for just $3,700.
The Washington Redskins traveled to East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the New York Giants in week four of the 2019 season. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Giants' secondary performed like one of the worst units in the entire NFL. The Giants allowed three different receivers to clear the 100-yard threshold against them through the first three games of the year. These struggles have been mostly thanks to the abysmal performance of the team's two cornerbacks, Janoris Jenkins, and DeAndre Baker, who graded as two of the league's worst coverage corners. While Washington's passing attack had left much to be desired throughout the first three games of the season, a matchup with New York's struggling pass defense presented a perfect opportunity for the Redskins to get on track through the air. With the team's number-one wide receiver, Terry McLaurin out due to a hamstring injury, Paul Richardson Jr was expected to step up and command significantly more volume here against New York. For just $3,700, Richardson, Jr. did not need to fill McLaurin's role entirely, but only partially, as a fraction of McLaurin's weekly production would suffice at Richardson's price. Ultimately, the Washington passing-game failed miserably at building any positive momentum, as Case Keenum was benched midway through the second quarter in favor of the team's first-round pick, Dwayne Haskins. Haskins looked every bit like the ill-prepared rookie that many had feared he was during his NFL debut, and there was no correct selection from Washington's receiving corps for fantasy purposes.
Why Paul Richardson Jr?
- Expected to see a significantly larger role in his team's respective offense in the absence of the team's number-one wide receiver
- As three-point underdogs, his offense was expected to deploy a pass-heavy gameplan to mount a comeback on the road.
- He had an elite matchup against one of the league's worst secondaries to open the 2019 season.
(Last week's analysis used to project Evan Engram as The Sharp Play of the Week)
Last weekend, the New York Giants' offense was dealt a massive blow when star running back Saquon Barkley went down with an ankle injury that is expected to keep him sidelined for over a month. Barkley was not only the team's bell-cow running back, but he was also a large part of the Giants' passing game. Typically, as most running backs do, Barkley's targets were on short passes out of the backfield and over the middle of the field. His replacement, Wayne Gallman, is unlikely to replicate this production, leaving a sizeable void in the passing game. Evan Engram is the top candidate to fill that void, as he already tends to operate in the same areas of the field as Barkley. The New York Giants' tight end is one of the league's best athletes at the position, and in the absence of Saquon Barkley, Engram will likely be called upon to play a larger role in the passing game. Washington already struggles mightily to defend the pass, especially with their poor linebacking corps, and Evan Engram is a prime candidate to capitalize on this weakness.
Why Evan Engram?
- Matchup against one of the league's weakest secondaries heavily favored the passing game.
- Absence of a significant pass-catcher that typically works in similar areas of the field increased Engram's expected workload.
- Improvement at the quarterback position increases the floor and ceiling of his team's entire passing attack.
Next Week's Sharp Play
The Cincinnati Bengals offense was embarrassed on national television by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 24-3 defeat to their divisional rivals. To add insult to injury, the Bengals placed wide receiver John Ross III on the injured reserve on Wednesday afternoon due to a shoulder injury he suffered late in the game. Auden Tate already had a role in Cincinnati's offense as the team's number-three wide receiver before the injury. In Ross III's absence, Tate moved up into the number-two spot on the depth chart. Tate hauled in 4 of his 6 targets for 50 yards on Monday night, and his performance was one of the few bright spots on the Bengals' roster in week four. Now, in week five, his price remains unadjusted at $3,500, even with his increased role in Cincinnati's offense because DraftKings released prices for the slate before the Bengals' week four game kicked off. Additionally, Tate and the Cincinnati Bengals play host to the struggling Arizona Cardinals secondary this weekend. Through 4 games, the Cardinals have allowed the opposition to score through the air 10 times without generating a single turnover in the passing game. The up-tempo offensive approach from Arizona also maximizes the play-count for their opposition, increasing Tate's fantasy viability. Tate enters week five as one of the best salary-saving options at the wide receiver position. His enhanced role in Cincinnati's offense combined with an elite matchup against Arizona's struggling secondary will likely make Auden Tate one of the sharpest cash game selections of week five.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 4: Evan Engram- 7.4 FanDuel points (1.1x value)/9.4 DraftKings points (1.6x value)
- 51.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
