The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
The Teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
TEAM ANALYSIS
Team #1 finished in 49th out of 69 teams in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. This sharp elected to use strongest value option at quarterback, Kyle Allen, while paying up for three running backs. Ultimately, this lineup was held back by Austin Ekeler and Mark Andrews. Both players were strong plays rooted in a clearly-efficient process, but the end-product was not there in week three which kept this team out of the money.
Team #2 finished 16th out of 69 teams in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings. This user started his lineup with Jameis Winston at quarterback against the New York Giants' reeling secondary. At running back, this team was built around one top-end running back and one mid-priced option, both of whom projected to be highly-utilized in their team's respective offenses. One primary difference between Team #1 and Team #2 is the FLEX position. Team #2 elected to roster a top-end wide receiver, while Team #1 targeted a third top-end running back. Neither of these strategies are clearly superior at this point, but it is worth keeping an eye on how the sharpest NFL DFS players utilize the FLEX position.
The Overlap
Christian McCaffrey's usage-rate in Carolina's offense is unmatched in the modern NFL. Here in week three against a struggling Arizona Cardinals defense that also pushes the pace to maximize the number of snaps for both teams, McCaffrey jumped off the page as an elite option to spend-up for at running back. 52.2-percent of sharps in DraftKings' GIANT $1,060 50-50 rostered Christian McCaffrey, and ultimately they were rewarded with another week of top-flight fantasy production from the youngster.
In week three, the Carolina Panthers went into Arizona to take on the Cardinals with their backup quarterback, Kyle Allen, under center while Cam Newton heals from an injury. The Cardinals entered the game as 2.5-point favorites over the Panthers following the news of Newton's absence, but Kyle Allen proved to be serviceable throughout a 38-20 road victory for Carolina. Allen starting in place of Newton boosted McCaffery's fantasy value, as backup quarterbacks tend to be extremely conservative with their pass attempts. This conservative approach heavily favors receiving running backs like McCaffrey who work almost-exclusively on short-routes in the passing game. Additionally, facing off against Arizona's up-tempo offense has some unintended benefits for the opposing offense: significantly higher play counts. The Cardinals run defense also ranks amongst the weakest units in the NFL- in large part thanks to a drastically underachieving linebacking corps. Heavily-involved players of all positions, especially running back, will regularly be strong options in cash-games when they face the Arizona Cardinals. Christian McCaffrey finished the week with 30.8 DraftKings points, making him one of the highest-scoring players on DraftKings' main slate of games in week three.
Why Christian McCaffrey?
- Bell-cow running back that is heavily utilized in the passing game.
- Backup quarterback enhances the value derived from his passing-game work.
- Facing the Arizona Cardinals' up-tempo offense that also maximizes the opponent's chances to score.
- Lacked the "blowout risk" of other top-end running back options like Ezekiel Elliott (23-point favorite in week three.)
(Last week's analysis used to project Nelson Agholor as The Sharp Play of the Week)
The injury bug bit the Philadelphia Eagles' wide receiving corps exceptionally hard in week two against the Atlanta Falcons. DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery each missed most, if not all, of the Eagles' week two game in Atlanta and both will miss the team's week three matchup against the Detroit Lions. In week two, quarterback Carson Wentz targeted Nelson Agholor 11 times, just under 25-percent of Wentz's total pass attempts in the game. Heading into week three, Nelson Agholor is the Eagles' lone established deep threat that will be available to take on the Detroit Lions. Tight End Zach Ertz commanded record-setting volume at the tight end position, and while the absences of Jackson and Jeffery will certainly serve to benefit Ertz, Agholor's ability to stretch the field provides for a massive ceiling at just $3,600 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel. The sharps will almost certainly build around the incredible value provided by Nelson Agholor at the wide receiver position in week three before deciding which top-end plays to zero in on.
Why Nelson Agholor?
- Philadelphia's leading remaining wide receiver in the absence of team's top two wide receivers.
- Bottom-dollar salary unadjusted for his role in the offense because his week three salary was posted prior to his week two game against Atlanta.
Since Larry Fitzgerald shifted his focus to playing primarily out of the slot a few years ago, the 14-year vet has revitalized his career. In 2019, playing in Kliff Kingsbury's pass-happy offense that consistently utilizes multiple slot receivers, Larry Fitzgerald has shown he can still produce at a high level. For just $5,100, 50.7-percent of sharps in DraftKings' GIANT $1,060 50-50 locked in Fitzgerald at wide receiver in his week three matchup with the Carolina Panthers.
Larry Fitzgerald commanded at least 11-targets in each of Arizona's first two games of the 2019 season, the most on the team in both games. Fitzgerald's usage in the Arizona offense is both as a safety-blanket for rookie quarterback Kyler Murray, as well as the team's most-reliable deep threat. Fitzgerald's average target came 11.4-yards down the field over the course of the team's first two games, the highest mark on the team amongst players with at least 10-receptions, and second-highest on the roster, overall. Fitzgerald's measly $5,100 price tag in week three was baffling considering the volume of Arizona's passing attack. Through two games, the Cardinals attempted 47 passes per game, the highest mark in the NFL. The sheer volume of targets available for Larry Fitzgerald in the Cardinals' offense is enough to justify rostering him in cash-games. A matchup against the Carolina Panthers' weak slot-cornerbacks was the cherry on top for the sharpest NFL DFS players when building week three cash lineups. Fitzgerald will likely be one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league in Arizona's new-look offense here in 2019, and until his price increases substantially, he will probably be a cash-game favorite amongst sharps.
Why Larry Fitzgerald?
- Most-targeted wide receiver in the league's highest-volume passing attack.
- Also commanding highly-valuable targets deep down the field and in the red zone, which increase his value.
- Facing a team with notably-weak slot cornerbacks poised to matchup against Fitzgerald throughout the game.
- Middle-of-the-road price lagging far behind his involvement and production in a revamped Arizona offense.
While Emmanuel Sanders appeared in both of the lineups analyzed above, he was only rostered by 20.3-percent of players in the GIANT $1,060 50-50. Therefore, Sanders was not a consensus sharp play in week three, and his selection process lacked signal that may assist in projecting sharp plays in the future. In place of his analysis, a second sharp play for next week will be added to the end of the article later this week.
Next Week's Sharp Play
Terry McLaurin -- INACTIVE
Just three games into his NFL career, Terry McLaurin has risen to the top of Washington's depth chart, and he is commanding consistent volume in the team's passing attack. McLaurin leads the Redskins in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns through three games in 2019. McLaurin has posted impressive numbers against a daunting schedule. To start the 2019 season, the Redskins took on three playoff teams from last year: the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears. In week four, Terry McLaurin costs just $4,500 on DraftKings, an astonishingly-low price for any team's number-one pass-catcher. McLaurin and the Redskins head to the Meadowlands to face off with the New York Giants and their horrid secondary. The Giants have allowed to most passing yards in the NFL, the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL, and have intercepted opposing quarterbacks just one time. Cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and DeAndre Baker rank as two of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL early in 2019. The Giants' defensive backfield has allowed 6 different players to record 69 or more receiving yards in a game this season, including 3 different 100+ yard receivers. As 2.5-point underdogs once again in week four, the Washington Redskins are likely to turn into a pass-happy offense while they play catch-up on the road. For just $4,500, Terry McLaurin does not need many passes thrown his way to reach value on the week four main slate, but as Washington's best wide receiver, he will likely get all the usage he can handle. Turn to Terry McLaurin as the best bargain-bin option at wide receiver here in an elite matchup in week four against the New York Giants.
Second sharp play will be added on SUNDAY MORNING
SUNDAY AM UPDATE: 11:42 AM
Evan Engram
Last weekend, the New York Giants' offense was dealt a massive blow when star running back Saquon Barkley went down with an ankle injury that is expected to keep him sidelined for over a month. Barkley was not only the team's bell-cow running back, but he was also a large part of the Giants' passing game. Typically, as most running backs do, Barkley's targets were on short passes out of the backfield and over the middle of the field. His replacement, Wayne Gallman, is unlikely to replicate this production, leaving a sizeable void in the passing game. Evan Engram is the top candidate to fill that void, as he already tends to operate in the same areas of the field as Barkley. The New York Giants' tight end is one of the league's best athletes at the position, and in the absence of Saquon Barkley, Engram will likely be called upon to play a larger role in the passing game. Washington already struggles mightily to defend the pass, especially with their poor linebacking corps, and Evan Engram is a prime candidate to capitalize on this weakness.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 2: Austin Ekeler- 20.3 FanDuel points (2.7x value)/24.3 DraftKings points (4.0x value)
- 77.1 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 3: Nelson Agholor- 19.0 FanDuel points (4.0x value)/24.0 DraftKings points (6.7x value)
- 91.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
