2019 Target-Avoid Fantasy Football Running Backs

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The NFL preseason is in full force and the 2019 fantasy football season is right around the corner. One of the big advantages of Footballguys.com is a large database of staff rankings. This series looks at the difference between the collaborative Footballguys staff rankings and myfantasyleague.com positional ADP (Average Draft Position) at the skill positions. In this edition: running backs.

RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

Joe Mixon

• RB7 Ranking
• RB11 ADP
• Why: Mixon was RB11 in aWORP (Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player, which accounts for start rate in fantasy leagues as well) and is priced at his finish with his positional ADP. Mixon enters Year 3 with an elite breakout season in play as a back with high-level receiving upside plus double-digit touchdowns as his upside. A.J. Green's injury to begin the season only aids Mixon's offensive involvement.

Devonta Freeman

• RB13 Ranking
• RB20 ADP
• Why: Freeman is the classic 'ho-hum veteran returning from injury' discount at play in 2019. The Falcons are one of the best offenses in the league and Tevin Coleman exits the depth chart to bolster Freeman's weekly floor as Ito Smith (or other incumbents on the roster) would be downgrades in the RB2 role. Freeman was RB16 in aWORP in 2017 and an easy projection to beat this RB20 ADP in 2019.

Tevin Coleman

• RB26 Ranking
• RB32 ADP
• Why: Coleman is freed from his Atlanta committee role with his free agency move to the 49ers. Jerick McKinnon has a murky outlook at best with a setback in his knee recovery, leaving less competition for touches for Coleman than initially projected. Coleman excels in the passing game even if not a workhorse rusher within the optimized Kyle Shanahan offense. Coleman was RB24 and RB19 in aWORP the past two seasons and points to an easy profit at his ADP.

Latavius Murray

• RB32 Ranking
• RB39 ADP
• Why: Murray moves from Minnesota to New Orleans, inheriting the Mark Ingram role within the Saints' Alvin Kamara-led committee. Ingram finished at RB17 in aWORP last season, a mark Murray could even eclipse with his dual-threat background and (likely) opportunities to log double-digit touchdowns. While in a committee, Murray has top-5 upside if Kamara were to miss time and be a weekly RB2 option even if Kamara is active.

RUNNING BACKS TO AVOID

Melvin Gordon

• RB16 Ranking
• RB12 ADP
• Why: Gordon is mired with the question mark of a holdout. While different than LeVeon Bell a year ago contract-wise, Gordon is a risk to miss substantial time. Also, the Chargers backfield lacks strong clarity of either Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler being a strong handcuff if Gordon misses games.

Aaron Jones

• RB19 Ranking
• RB16 ADP
• Why: Jones missed a chunk of training camp with a hamstring injury as did Jamaal Williams on the Packers' running back depth chart. Jones has been annointed as a breakout star by a faction of the fantasy football community. However, his mid-Day 3 pedigree and both Jamaal Williams and Dexter Williams possessing similar pedigree and decent metric profiles point to lower odds than many would assess for Jones' assumed monster season.

David Montgomery

• RB31 Ranking
• RB23 ADP
• Why: Rookies, in general, are shaky fantasy bets and Montgomery is projected to be the unquestioned Chicago starter by many in the community. However, Mike Davis is a solid bridge option to Montgomery's (likely) later season uptick in role for early in the season, plus Tarik Cohen's role in the passing game will not go away. Without high-level receiving work, Montgomery will need workhorse level touches and/or exclusive goal line involvement to surpass his ADP.

Derrius Guice

• RB35 Ranking
• RB28 ADP
• Why: Guice is working back from his significant 2018 injury, derailing his rookie season before it got started. Adrian Peterson returns to the roster and Chris Thompson returns from injury to create plenty of ambiguity for Guice's role and upside this season. Add to the depth chart lack of clarity Washington's questionable-at-best offensive projection and Guice's limited ceiling makes him a tough running back for whom to pound the table in 2019 drafts.

Nyheim Hines

• RB50 Ranking
• RB38 ADP
• Why: Hines had a successful rookie season in the pass-catching role, but Marlon Mack is projected as the clear lead back for the colts in 2019. The passing game also had minimal targets last year overall, now seeing an infusion of Devin Funchess, Parris Campbell, and (returning from injury) Jack Doyle to the pecking order. Hines' ceiling is limited considering he is unlikely to inherit a workhorse role even if Mack misses time.

Kareem Hunt

• RB54 Ranking
• RB35 ADP
• Why: Hunt faces a half-season suspension, burning a fantasy roster spot in the meantime and limiting flexibility to find a waiver wire darling in the process. Plus, Nick Chubb makes Hunt a likely handcuff at best upon his return. In the RB30s is a sky-high price for those two factors at play and to invest in Hunt before the season as opposed to waiting out the fantasy team to potentially drop Hunt in the opening month, during bye weeks, or even upon his return if Nick Chubb is healthy.

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