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A Different Kind of Player Spotlight – The Projection Spectrum

As a proud, new member of the Footballguys staff, I'm excited to participate in the Player Spotlight series, but my entries are going to look a bit different. The goal of this series -- which I call the Projection Spectrum -- is to provide fantasy owners with a sense of what a player’s reasonable floor and ceiling are. Knowing this information can be key when making roster construction decisions. There are three primary components in this analysis: Volume quantity, volume quality, and player talent. These three components are the lifeblood of a strong projection model.-- Dwain McFarland

Last season Kerryon Johnson’s opportunities were limited by a three-back committee before having his season cut short due to a knee sprain. Thanks to elite efficiency (5.5 yards per attempt) and passing game involvement (32 receptions), in ten games, he cracked the Top 24 PPR running back list five times and just missed it one other time.

Now Johnson gets a new play-caller in Darrell Bevell who is an unabashed advocate of the run. Bevell’s love for running stems back to playing quarterback at Wisconsin. In 12 seasons as a play-caller, his offenses have ranked in the Top 10 in rushing attempts seven times. His teams have finished in the Top 3 on five different occasions.

The Lions added C.J. Anderson via free agency and drafted Ty Johnson in the sixth round of the NFL draft. Theo Riddick also remains with the team.

What does all of this mean for Kerryon Johnson? Let’s find out.

Volume Quantity

From 2016 to 2018 the NFL average for plays is 1,015. The average for attempts 977 – the Lions were the definition of average in 2018 under Matt Patricia and Jim Bob Cooter.

NFL Averages - Plays, Attempts, and Splits

Jim Bob Cooter - Plays, Attempts, and Splits

Darrell Bevell’s historical play volumes are in line with the average as well, but his pass versus run splits lean more towards run except for his last two seasons in Seattle.

Darrell Bevell - Plays, Attempts, and Splits

Vegas currently has the Lions line for wins at 6.5. Teams that play more from behind tend to pass more. The NFL average for teams winning six games or less is 59% pass since 2011. Bevell was below that mark in each season that his team won eight or fewer games – 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011.

The word from the Detroit media is Patricia hand-selected Bevell because of his commitment to the run. Given that narrative plus Bevell’s historical tendencies, Detroit will probably throw the ball less in 2019. Rushing won't be on the scale of Bevell’s days in Seattle because the Lions don't have a running quarterback, but it will be up.

More rushing attempts to go around is a good thing for Johnson who will lead the team in touches. However, just how many of those touches is a big question heading into the preseason. Patricia’s deep roots from New England tightly wind around a three-way backfield.

In 2018 three roles emerged during Johnson’s ten games.

2018 Lions Running Back Utilization: Games 1 - 10

At a glance, it looks like Johnson took over in weeks 7 through 11. However, when you take in the context of Theo Riddick missing weeks seven and eight, plus how these games unfolded a different picture emerges.

• Role No. 1: Lead rusher and secondary pass receiving back – Kerryon Johnson
• Role No. 2: Lead passing down back – Theo Riddick
• Role No. 3: Goal-line back and support rusher – LeGarrette Blount

In games where the Lions were competitive or winning, Johnson ceded 44%, 48%, 35%, 43%, 29%, and 27% of rushing attempts to Blount. In games where the Lions trailed Blount only picked up 27%, 23%, 22%, and 25% of the work. Blount also had eight attempts from inside the five-yard line versus two for Johnson. Despite Blount being far less effective than Johnson, Blount’s involvement was prominent in favorable game flow situations.

When asked about the addition of C.J. Anderson this offseason, Matt Patricia has consistently stated the need to protect his runners from too much punishment. That holds up when considering how he continued to feed Blount even when getting inferior production.

Johnson’s target percentages were higher in weeks nine and ten despite Riddick’s return, but Golden Tate was traded after week seven leaving underneath targets behind. The Lions added Danny Amendola to play slot this season – an old Patriot’s favorite.

The big question is what imprint Bevell can make on this rotation. At this point, it is unclear if he will adapt to Patricia’s leanings or if he will be allowed to run the offense as he sees fit. Bevell has had the benefit of coaching Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson whom he fed the ball too.

Darrell Bevell - Prorated Running Back Utilization

Bevell also had a rushing quarterback in Seattle which deflates running back percentages. That won’t be the case in Detroit.

We have a clash of historical coaching tendency here. It serves as the backbone for the range of workload splits we could see with the Lions.

The conservative utilization range represents the approach Detroit used last season. The median utilization range represents the approach Detroit used last season with some influence from Bevell. The aggressive range represents leaning towards Bevell’s history and the elimination of Riddick’s role.

Team Projection Ranges: Attempts and Rushing Splits

Team Projection Ranges: Passing Splits

Kerryon Johnson Utilization Ranges

With these three components Johnson's projected volume ranges can be established utilizing a permutation grid.

Conservative, Median, and Aggressive Permutations

Kerryon Johnson Projected Volume Ranges

Volume Quality, TALENT, AND FIT

Consistent efficiency is a key enabler to Bevell’s run-heavy style. Much of the credit belongs to Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch but Bevell’s explosive rush rate (percentage of runs equal to or more than 15 yards) and touchdowns per attempt rate dwarf Cooter’s history.

Explosive Runs and Touchdowns Per Attempt

When creating projections for running backs estimating yards per carry (YPC) is the most volatile component. Due to regression as Adam Harstad covers in depth, I prefer to keep players within a reasonable range so that YPC doesn’t overly influence rankings and tiers.

While projecting YPC can be tough, it also can't be completely ignored. When normalizing running backs over the past three seasons to only include those that reached 250 attempts, YPC is the second-highest correlating factor (.78), and explosive attempts is the highest (.82). What is interesting is explosive attempts ratios, unlike explosive yardage ratios, are more sticky than YPC.

Johnson showed off elite explosive-play ability (8%) on limited work last season. He is the back most likely to allow this offense to soar. C.J. Anderson is a solid runner with an explosive play rate of 5% for his career, but the downhill slope has hit over the past three seasons (3%, 4%, 0%). At this point, he is a nice player who has a solid scheme and defensive alignment awareness – a perfect backup.

Kerryon Johnson Historical Efficiency

For Johnson’s touchdown rate to increase he needs more carries inside the five. Figuring out if Anderson will take on Blount's carries in that area of the field is another key to Johnson’s success in 2019.

As we saw late in the 2018 season, Johnson is a more than capable receiver. It might be one of the best facets of his game. Not only can he work flats and angle routes, he can line up wide and create separation versus cornerbacks. His ability to integrate technique and agility is something the Lions could capitalize on much more versus linebackers and safeties.

Matt Stafford and the surrounding skill players (Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson, and Danny Amendola) are solid enough to create balance. Bevell has the necessary tools available to scheme favorable run fronts via alignment and personnel. Pro Football Focus ranks the offensive line No. 15, and there are reasons for hope given recent investments and realignments.

Kerryon Johnson Projected Efficiency Ranges

The Projection Spectrum

Johnson has a wide range of outcomes that center primarily around three legitimate possibilities for his utilization. His efficiency numbers are impressive, but the sample size is small. Unlike the last projection spectrum focus, Aaron Jones, Johnson doesn’t benefit from an elite running scheme. Bevell is a solid upgrade over Cooter but is still slightly below the league average despite having Peterson and Lynch.

For this range of outcomes, the efficiency statistics are static and based on median projections. Changes would represent additional layers of outcomes between and beyond these.

The Median, Realistic Ceiling, and Realistic floor represent ~70% of the possible outcomes. Think of a bell curve where probability is at its highest in the middle but gradually slopes down on both sides. The curve isn’t strictly a math problem based on standard deviation, and that is intentional. This approach is centered around solving for “X” scenarios to create more actionable ceilings and floors.

There is a multitude of amalgamations that could occur. It is unlikely that the linear bands above will mirror Johnsons’ actual production. However, the total fantasy point outputs are strong, given all the inputs we have evaluated.

Optimistic Ceiling – Johnson secures three-down role

The Lions rush an aggressive 475 times and pass a conservative 515 times. Johnson takes on 60% of attempts and takes on most of passing down work (15% of targets) and beats out Anderson for the majority of work inside the five.

Realistic Ceiling – Johnson secures passing down work

The Lions rush 435 times and pass 530 times. Jones picks up Riddick’s rushing attempts but still gives way to Anderson frequently when the Lions are winning and inside the five. Riddick’s passing work belongs to Johnson.

Median – Johnson secures slight bump due to Bevell, but Lions still deploy three backs

The Lions rush 435 times and pass 530 times. Johnson gives way to Riddick in obvious passing situations but picks up a slight bump in percentage of carries to get to 50%. Anderson still works in and poaches scoring opportunities.

Realistic Floor – Johnson in the same role as last season with Lions deploying three backs

The Lions rush 435 times and pass 530 times. Johnson is the first line rusher and second option as a pass-catcher out of the backfield behind Riddick. Anderson limits Johnson (45% of attempts) seeing significant playing time when game flow allows and limits touchdown opportunities inside the five.

Pessimistic Floor – Johnson’s volume takes a slight hit in three-way committee due to Anderson

The Lions rush 395 times and pass 545 times. Johnson is in a three-way committee but loses additional carries due to Anderson’s superior performance and game application versus what the team got from Blount last season.

Final Thoughts – AKA, Actionable Advice

Is Theo Riddick cut?

Is there a consistent buzz backed by preseason opportunity regarding increased goal line utilization for Johnson?

If the answer to both questions is yes, Johnsons’ value ascends towards the three-down role. In this case, assuming no changes with these players circumstances, he should be prioritized ahead of Aaron Jones, Devonta Freeman, Marlon Mack, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry. You could make a case even to push Johnson ahead of Nick Chubb and even with Dalvin Cook, but would need to be certain about his role.

If the answers are yes, and no, Johnson is almost a lock for his realistic ceiling – which then becomes his new median projection. If this occurs, Johnson should be prioritized even with Freeman, Mack, and Jones and ahead of Jacobs and Henry.

For more on my thoughts about the backs in this tier see the section labeled “Draft Strategy” in my Projection Spectrum on Aaron Jones.

Stats and Staff Projections

Other Thoughts

Matt Waldman: The Gut Check No. 471: 20 Spring Risers and Fallers

RB Kerryon Johnson, Detroit (+15%)

The addition of C.J. Anderson and Johnson's injury-shortened rookie year contributed to a lower ADP than his talent and film should merit. Now healthy, Johnson's receiving chops are leading to an increase in value.

It's a logical increase. The Lions have a promising offensive line that got better thanks to T.J. Hockenson's addition as a blocking tight end who can handle assignments more efficiently and this will help his teammates get upfield faster to open bigger creases.

Johnson has fantasy RB1 upside—especially if the projection for 60 catches that we're hearing comes true, but the offense may not have all of the pieces or the coaching prowess to get him there. Expect high-end RB2 production with an increase in his receiving stats in 2019.

Verdict: Appropriately valued upside pick with a solid floor as a starter.

Matt Waldman: The Gut Check No. 474: Notable Yards After Contact Running Backs

Kerryon Johnson: Consider Johnson's production in 2018 as something that exceeds expectation because Marvin Jones Jrand Matt Stafford weren't healthy for much of last year—even if the medical reports state these injuries occurred later in the season. Johnson's YAC rate (61 percent) and strong yards-per-carry average behind a young and still-developing offensive line are promising indications of what's to come. C.J. Anderson has the skills to cut into Johnson's workload but he's an insurance policy who will otherwise give Johnson a breather after 2-3 series. If we knew back then what we know now, Johnson would have been one of the top three backs in rookie drafts. By the way, the RSP had him as its No.4 back barely below Derrius Guice and wrote, "[Johnson] is as capable as the first three ahead of him to be a rookie of the year candidate."

Pro Football Focus’ Jeff Ratcliffe believes Johnson is a midrange breakout candidate:

“There’s no denying Johnson’s upside. The Lions back flashed major ability with 100-yard rushing performances in two of his first six professional games. But the question that followed Johnson from the college level was whether or not he could handle a full workload.”

CBS Sports’ Heath Cummings grades Johnson’s realistic upside similar to the Projection Spectrum but with slightly more touchdowns.

“He missed six games due to injury. But it's not hard to