RB2 By Committee

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Over the past several seasons, there have been quite a few very popular articles that look at an interesting approach to building a fantasy team with late value picks. Based on the theory of using both Strength of Schedule ("SOS") and taking two players as a combination to build one very good starting duo, a committee can be built as a standard fantasy league strategy. In general, this is usually a wise move for some positions where depth is not as big of a concern (usually quarterbacks and defenses) because there is rarely a need to pursue an elite option at these positions early in the beginning stages of a fantasy draft.

So with this in mind, I started to think about what else can be done with the committee approach. Tight end? Perhaps. Wide receiver? A possibility, but it might be better to look at third wide receiver options than any other option. What about running back? Hmmm, that's really intriguing. What if you could grab two running backs later in the draft that could combine to perform on an RB2 - or even RB1 - level, based solely on their current projections and their schedule? Now we're talking. This really got my attention, so I went after this one first. Let's take a look at how to evaluate this concept and then we can digest and discuss the results.

THE GROUND(GAME) RULES

So how to begin? Defenses and quarterbacks are relatively easy to committee together. There's usually only one quarterback and certainly only one team defense per NFL club, so the approach is pretty simple as far as picking out which players/teams to try and pair up. When it comes to running backs, the line is not quite so easy to draw, but I needed some basis to pick which players it made sense to try and combine for a decent committee. I decided that I would use the following criteria to decide which players to start with for evaluating:

CRITERIA #1 - RB25 AND BEYOND

This seems pretty simple. If we want to have a duo that puts up RB2 numbers, that means we want RB24 or better production - else we would just draft RB24 (Mark Ingram) or higher and forget the whole idea. So here is the list of players with which I started, based on their Average Draft Position (ADP):

Table 1: Running Backs RB25-RB60 Based on PPR ADP

Note that RB49, DOnta Foreman, was omitted since he was recently released from the Texans..

Great, now we have 35 guys to pair up and see how they do. That makes 595 potential committees, so there had better be a decent one (or several, we hope) out of all of those couplets. Now, before I go over the method of how to pair them up and the results, we need one more rule:

CRITERIA #2 - NO MORE THAN ONE RB FROM ROUND 5 AND ONE FROM ROUND 6

This could get tricky here, but understand the overall goal. The point of RB2BC is to free up the first four rounds of your fantasy draft to pursue three receivers after grabbing a stud running back in Round 1. This also gives you the flexibility of grabbing two receivers and a stud quarterback or tight end, depending on your personal preference, or even to get RB2 and have the RB2BC be your RB3. Flexibility is the name of the game here. We all want value in our drafts, and having the ability to grab two running backs in Rounds 5 and 6 to act as our RB2BC gives us that ability.

Here is the good news - nearly all the running backs on the list above has an ADP that is Round 6 or higher (later), but several backs fall in the Round 5-6 range that will be of interest. We will have to keep that in mind when we look at the results because it would not make sense to expect to get two Round 5 or Round 6 running backs in one of these combinations based on their ADP.

So what do we do now to figure out some running back pairs?

CRITERIA #3 - USE FOOTBALLGUYS' RB STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

This sounds pretty simple, doesn't it? Just take the running back strength of schedule to figure out when certain players are more likely to score well. The method here is similar to what the Projections Dominator and Draft Dominator do for you - take the projected fantasy points and slice them up over 17 weeks based on the strength of schedule, which can be called the distributed fantasy points for each running back.

After the distributed fantasy points were tabulated for all 35 running backs on a weekly basis, the next step is to just compare all of the possible running back pairs to find the best duos for RB2BC. So here we are - time for some results.

Table 2: PPR Running Back #2 Committee Pairs

Apologies for the lengthy list in Table 2, but as you can imagine, we have a lot of choices this year. That's a good thing, but now we have to trim that list down to get some very good pairs to select from for RB2BC. There are some tricky situations this season such as having one back suspended for eight games to start the season (Kareem Hunt), which could impact the study. With so many options this season, there is the need to be thorough as the ADPs tend to get very fluid as preseason wears on, and we need to make certain we have the very best pairings in case our draft plans go awry. So digging in, there are 36 pairs that are worth more than or equal to Chris Carson by his lonesome, so it looks like there will be a number of options. Let's also take a look at how often some of these guys show up on the table:

Table 3: PPR Running Back #2 Committee Pair Appearances by Player

As we can see from Table 3, even though there are only 36 committees to consider, there are plenty of options. Three running backs appear at least six times, while four more rushers appear three times on the list. Clearly, these are the backs to target for the committee approach this season, but which ones? Some of that will come down to personal preferences of these seven running backs, but some of the math in the study can help us out. Keep in mind that these are all based on projections at this time, and a single touchdown can sway the results significantly. With so many backs on this list with such frequency, it tells us that the ADP list in the RB20-RB36 range is pretty up in the air as far as who will do the best. All the more reason to get a favorable pair when it comes to strength of schedule.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

Now that we have 36 possible pairs that are better than Chris Carson, what exactly does that mean? Should Carson be the basis of our comparison? Of course not. Remember our goal - find a pair of running backs that can combine for RB2 (or better) fantasy production. To figure that out we need a better metric, so here are the projections for RB1 through RB24 (and beyond), using PPR:

Table 4: Projected PPR Fantasy Points for RBs 1-28

Based on Table 4, we see some things that catch the eye. First, the projections and the ADP do not line up well at all, especially outside of the Top 7 options. Injury concerns around Todd Gurley and contract holdouts with Melvin Gordon are wreaking a little havoc with the RB1's, but the general group of RB2's (RB13-24+) is not too out of whack. Rookies are creeping up on the list (Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery, among others) and camp battles for lead roles will keep this list in constant flux all of August. With all of the uncertainty after the first dozen or so running backs, having numerous plans and options is of paramount importance this year.

Digging in more closely, it jumps out that only 20 running backs are projected to score over 200 points, with only a few others in the 180-200 range. . The "RB2 Jumble" has a number of backs projected in the 175-200 range, but all of that can change with the preseason depth charts. Now, to be fair, these running backs in Table 4 have a giant zero on their bye week, while our RB2BC duos never have a week off. To compensate for that, we should add in 7-10 points for a bye week lineup fill-in that someone who owned of these players would use. Looking at our possible pairs, we have 30 that meet or beat 185 fantasy points, which would put those duos comparable to projected RB22, Mark Ingram (177.3 + 7.7 points with a bye week replacement). This tells us that choosing the correct pair can give us the result we wanted - RB2 production on the cheap.

Now, to look for the best bargains available, let's take one more final look at these pairs, focusing on those that project to be comparable to at least 184 total points:

Table 5: Top 28 PPR RB2BC Options for 2019

In prior years, the typical committee plan would have said that we should focus on the best of the bargain bin - pairs of running backs that include no more than one RB with ADP of RB27, and possibly both backs with ADP of 30 or higher. This year, drafters are going to have to focus on their favorite two backs that can be had in Round 5-6, and hope that they can get both for their committee. Several of the backs on this list are either going to be in a committee for certain or be a part of an offense that has had a history of struggling, so my personal choices are going to focus on higher octane offenses that give plenty of snaps and scoring chances to both of the top rushers. That points me squarely at Chris Carson of Seattle and either Latavius Murray of the Saints, Tarik Cohen of the Bears or Lamar Miller from the Texans. Carson is the clear first choice, and his ADP has him available all of Round 5 (average ADP of 53, or roughly the middle of Round 5). Seattle has focused more and more on the ground game of late, and with Doug Baldwin retiring, both Carson and Rashaad Penny should see plenty of chances out of the Seahawk backfield. The second choice comes down to whether or not you want a high floor player like Lamar Miller or a player with a slightly lower floor but far more upside like Latavius Murray in New Orleans. As pointed out in my rankings comments, Murray is poised for a solid floor as the replacement for Mark Ingram in New Orleans as the between the tackles rusher, especially near the goal line, and offers big upside if anything happens to Alvin Kamara. Lamar Miller is the epitome of a safe choice - he will be the starter and clear dominant rusher for the Texans, but his upside is minimal at best. His only challenger for rushing attempts is his quarterback for the most part, but Miller will get enough production to offer solid value. Tarik Cohen is the other back to mention, as he has good upside due to not only PPR but also the potential for a kick return touchdown, but his downside risk is high with both Mike Davis and rookie David Montgomery creating a crowded backfield for the Bears.

Table 5 points out not only the top committee options, but also my personal rankings (and Top 13) for this coming season. Several pairs were skipped due to uncertainty in the backfields of teams (like the 49ers and Dolphins, for example), weak offenses (Miami, Buffalo, Denver) or both. Factoring in "draft equity" as well - how early each duo must be drafted based on ADP - leads to the rankings in Table 5. This is the reason that the first recommendation is simple for RB2BC - draft Chris Carson. After that, take your pick of Lamar Miller (safe, low ceiling), Latavius Murray (safer than you think, higher ceiling