This might seem like the most uninteresting year to draft quarterbacks in typical start one quarterback leagues, and in some ways, it is (try Superflex/2-QB leagues for a change). There are still advantages to gain over the competition when you consider that Patrick Mahomes II had the biggest gap of any #1 player at his position to the #2 player. Advantages are advantages and even though waiting at quarterback can get you about 20 points in the bank every week at no cost, picking the breakout quarterback can help you beat those teams that waited at quarterback and the breakout quarterbacks will be cheaper than chasing breakouts at other positions. So the glut of options at the position will push everyone down the board and make it easier to get “your guy”. The name of the game is still taking players who will vastly outproduce expectations and there will be a few this year. Good luck finding them.
The 24 Karat Gold Standard
Regression? What Regression?
Patrick Mahomes II, KC - Consider at ADP
With Tyreek Hill facing no suspension, Sammy Watkins healthy and balling out, and the addition of Mecole Hardman, Mahomes might actually take a step forward from his astronomical 2018 numbers. Mahomes is a safe investment at his price even if he gives you more of a hill to climb at some other position by eschewing the depth at the position. He is underrated in performance bonus scoring systems and a Mahomes/Kelce draft strategy sounds like fun to me.
Update: Hardman’s speed has stood out and he appears to be progressing. Darwin Thompson looks ready to contribute. This situation is looking even better than at the start of camp.
Schedule: Denver Week 15 and Chicago Week 16 is daunting, but will you care if your team is still alive?
14 Karat Gold
If Deshaun Watson had an offensive line, the gap between him and Mahomes might be smaller than the gap between him and the #3 quarterback.
Deshaun Watson, HOU - Avoid at ADP
If we ever get to see Watson play most of the season with a healthy Keke Coutee and Will Fuller, he could be the clear #2 overall fantasy quarterback. The offensive line is a worry, but the running game isn’t going to be leading this offense any time soon. If I’m paying a premium for a quarterback this year, it’s Mahomes at ADP over Watson at ADP.
Update: now Coutee is hurt, but at least they added Duke Johnson Jr to keep that role occupied by a skilled, explosive player if Coutee misses time or doesn’t regain form.
Schedule: Saints, Jaguars, Chargers, Panthers doesn’t sound fun to open the season.
high ceiling qb1
You have to take on risk in this tier, but with it comes the reward of a potential top-three quarterback and the ability to be the #1 fantasy quarterback in their best weeks.
Aaron Rodgers, GB- Slight Avoid at ADP
He looked like a quarterback in decline last year, but he has a new coaching staff and he was playing hurt for a good part of the year. With potential development from his young receivers and meshing with coaching that will make his job easier, he could return to top fantasy form. Rodgers is usually going in the top 3-4 quarterbacks and like Watson, if I’m ponying up an early-ish pick for a quarterback, it’s probably Mahomes at over Rodgers at ADP.
Update: Rodgers favorite Jake Kumerow looks like a roster lock and from what we can tell, the relationship with LaFleur is good.
Schedule: Bears, Vikings, Broncos to start is another reason to skip Rodgers at ADP.
Carson Wentz, PHI - Target at ADP - Riser
Wentz is healthy, he’s playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football, and he has the best array of weapons he has enjoyed in his career by a large margin. He could give everyone outside of Mahomes a run for their money this year. I gravitate more to Wentz every day because of my faith in the Philly offense to take another step forward this year.
Update: The DeSean Jackson connection buzz has carried over to camp. Dallas Goedert got a little banged up, but looked great in the preseason opener before that.
Schedule: Washington, Atlanta, and Detroit to open isn’t imposing.
Baker Mayfield, CLE - Consider at ADP
It’s easy to get excited about what Mayfield could offer in a Todd Monken offense with Odell Beckham. The offensive line has a few questionable spots and they could become more balanced when Kareem Hunt returns after an eight-game suspension, but Mayfield offers as much upside as a second-year quarterback who adds little as a runner can.
Update: The Browns have shown a willingness to go uptempo in the preseason, which raises the ceiling of Mayfield and this offense even higher.
Schedule: Titans, Jets, Rams to open is just fine.
High Floor QB1
This group doesn’t have the risk of the group above, but with the exception of Newton, doesn’t offer the same kinds of rewards, either.
Cam Newton, CAR - Target at ADP
Newton is a perennial strong QB1 and it appears his shoulder woes are behind him. His young receivers are maturing and he gets Greg Olsen. The offensive line woes appear to be fixed. He was a slam dunk pick at ADP, but Newton has moved into the top 10 in most drafts. You can target one of him and Wentz at about the same part of the draft - after two or three of Ryan, Mayfield and Luck are gone.
Update: Curtis Samuel looks like he’s ready to get to a new level and Greg Olsen hasn’t gotten hurt yet.
Schedule: Starting with the Rams, Bucs, and Cardinals is promising indeed.
Matt Ryan, ATL - Consider at ADP
Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line and the return of Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator. He probably won’t finish in the top three, but he won’t finish outside of the top ten either.
Update: Calvin Ridley had a hamstring issue, but is over it now. One of the two offensive line first-round picks, RT Kaleb McGary, had a heart procedure, but shouldn’t miss much regular-season time, if any.
Schedule: I wish he didn’t start at Minnesota, but the Eagles, Colts, Titans, and Texans after that is a manageable run.
Russell Wilson, SEA - Target at ADP
Wilson will be limited by low volume, but maybe not early in the season when the team will be without their best defensive lineman for six games while they face the Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Arizona, Los Angeles Rams, and Cleveland offenses. Don’t be surprised if he’s top five after six weeks.
Update: DK Metcalf has looked good, but might miss the open of the season after having knee surgery.
Schedule: See above, plus Arizona Week 16!
High Ceiling “Wait On” Quarterback
You’ll like the names ranked 11-20 on everyone’s boards no matter how you rank them. This group has a higher season-long ceiling, but a lower floor.
Lamar Jackson, BAL - Target at ADP - Riser
Update: There have been lots of indications that the Ravens offense will have more passing dimensions this year while leaving Jackson’s rushing upside intact. He looks even more dangerous as a runner now, reminiscent of what we saw at Louisville.
Schedule: An opening trio of Miami, Arizona, and Kansas City on the schedule makes him the most likely quarterback outside of the top ten to get off to a hot start.
Kyler Murray, ARI- Slight Avoid at ADP - Faller
The Air Raid show with Murray and Kingsbury could be a flop, but betting on NFL defenses to be slow to adjust to innovation is usually a good bet. We’ve never seen a quarterback that is a top passing and running threat in a scheme that maximizes his numbers. A top-three finish with a good gap between him and the rest of the QB1 pack is possible for Murray.
Update/Schedule: I’m getting more concerned about a slow start against Detroit and Baltimore because of how bad the defense is and how run-heavy teams will be able to play keep away and shorten the game.
Jameis Winston, TB - Consider at ADP in QBBC approach
Winston is paired with an ideal head coach in “no risk it, no biscuit” Bruce Arians. He’ll have to pass a lot to carry a team with a poor defense and questionable running game.
Update: Mostly positive notes from Tampa camp and the beginning of the Arians regime (who is actually helping rein in Winston a bit) should encourage investment in Winston.
Schedule: I love the idea of Winston Week 1 against San Francisco and Week 3 against the Giants, but Weeks 2 and 4 against Carolina and the Rams could be rough if Winston gets off to a cold start because his defense won’t do him any favors.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI - Consider at ADP in QBBC approach
He was running at a top 6-8 pace before his injury last year, and he should be even better in year two under Matt Nagy. The offense has also added more pass-catching backs and the top two receivers should be healthier this year.
Update: Reports out of camp have been mixed, but Matt Nagy could be in install mode, and he has been more positive than beat writers and observers.
Schedule: Opening with the Packers is promising, but the Broncos and Vikings in Weeks 2 and 4 might be avoids, so Trubisky is best as part of a QBBC.
Josh Allen, BUF - Target at ADP
Allen was about as good as any quarterback in the fantasy playoffs last year. He gained a #1 receiver (John Brown) and slot machine (Cole Beasley) in the offseason and the new-look offensive line could help make his life easier.
Update/Schedule: The offensive line has been racked with injuries and could be a problem, but the Jets, Giants, and Bengals offenses to open shouldn’t scare anyone. Allen works as a leadoff in a streaming approach. The line issues could actually encourage more scrambling and lift his ceiling against inferior defenses.
High Floor “Wait On” Quarterback
This group is safe and they are more likely to finish in the top 15 when the dust settles at the end of the season, but finishing in the top 6-8 is a stretch. They have matchup upside during the season, but over the long haul, the ceiling games probably won’t happen frequently enough to make them a true advantage over your competitors.
Jared Goff, LAR - Consider at ADP
Goff tailed off last year with the rest of the Rams offense, and the offensive line will feature two new starters, but he’s also getting back Cooper Kupp and added a weapon in Darrell Henderson.
Update: The two new starters on the offensive line are being treated like entrenched regulars and Kupp looks good. Camp reports have been positive, so he could be even better than last year if Sean McVay stays a step ahead of the league schematically.
Schedule: The Panthers and Saints to open is not easy by any stretch, but then matchups with the Browns, Bucs, Seahawks, 49ers, Falcons, and Bengals could heat up Goff’s scoring pace. Unfortunately, one of the matchups with the Cardinals is wasted.
Dak Prescott, DAL - Target at ADP - Riser
Prescott is the discount Cam Newton. He has been a top-ten fantasy quarterback basically any time he has been healthy and helming an offense that features Ezekiel Elliott. The offensive line is back together again and he added Randall Cobb and Jason Witten in the offseason, in addition to having his first full offseason with Amari Cooper.
Update: Elliott’s holdout situation is better than Melvin Gordon’s as he’s back in Dallas. Amari Cooper’s heel is worrisome, but Michael Gallup had the kind of summer that presages a breakout year, and Tony Pollard is making a bid for touches right away, Zeke or no Zeke. Zack Martin’s back is something to watch, but the return of Travis Frederick has been uneventful
Schedule: Elliott holding out would be good for Prescott’s start, which should already be helped by facing the Giants, Washington, and Miami to open.
Tom Brady, NE - Consider at ADP - Riser
Update: His whole outlook changed with Josh Gordon’s reinstatement. He can flirt with top-five weekly ceilings again and his weekly floor moves up to a more acceptable range. Just another reason wait on quarterback will be the most common plan this year.
Schedule: Steelers, Dolphins, Jets to open is primed for a strong start - IF Gordon is on the field.
Drew Brees, NO - Avoid at ADP
Brees will still be good for some top five weeks, but when the Saints are comfortably in control, he can be bottom five on the week. He just doesn’t offer the season-long upside he did in years past but is still a fine starter if you can handle the peaks and valleys.
Update: The Saints camp has proceeded as expected, rookie Erik McCoy looks ready to hold down the center position.
Schedule: Texans (without Clowney?), Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys to open could feature some good quarterback play, but also some formidable defense. Tough to gauge.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - Consider at ADP
Roethlisberger is due for a drop in attempts this year and he should also take a step back due to the loss of Antonio Brown. He’s still good for a few high ceiling games and seems to have shaken the road/home split that frustrated fantasy players in the past. His ADP is still a little high after losing Antonio Brown and coming off of a peak volume season that should come down to typical levels and shed about 100 attempts this year.
Update: James Washington has had a great preseason after a so-so camp. Vance McDonald is a little banged up. Jaylen Samuels should contribute more to the passing game.
Schedule: Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers, Bengals to open sounds promising
Kirk Cousins, MIN - Avoid at ADP
Cousins could be a lot more efficient and comfortable this year if the offensive line improves, but he’s going to be in a more conservative offense that should lean more on the running game this year.
Update: It looks like more play-action passing is in store, which should help Cousins be more efficient.
Schedule: Falcons, Packers, Raiders to open is actually a schedule conducive to a solid start.
Philip Rivers, LAC - Avoid at ADP - Faller
Rivers is consistent as they come, but he lacks big ceiling games. He’ll get Hunter Henry back this year to make up for the loss of Tyrell Williams, but Russell Okung’s pulmonary embolism resolving is key to his stock. There’s too much upside on the board at quarterback to target Rivers safe scoring profile.
Update: There’s still no timetable for Okung’s return and their right tackle situation wasn’t great to begin with.
Schedule: Colts, Lions, Texans, Dolphins to open is not especially bad or good.
Quarterback Depth is Absurd this year
You can neglect the position until the very end of your draft and still get a player who should produce at what was a viable clip in years past. This should encourage you to take more risks at the position because even if you pick flames out, the “punishment” is relying on someone from this list from the waiver wire unless some teams carry three quarterbacks.
Sam Darnold, NYJ - Riser
Darnold could make a big step in year two if Adam Gase makes things easier for him. He’ll have an improved interior offensive line and a much better wide receiver group than last year if everyone stays healthy.
Update: Darnold is looking good in his second camp. Jamison Crowder and Quincy Enunwa have stayed healthy. Darnold will lose Chris Herndon for the first four games due to suspension. Ty Montgomery is looking like the backup to LeVeon Bell and could help the passing game. Ryan Kalil was added to address the team’s biggest offensive line weakness, but starting guards Brian Winters and Kelechi Osemele are banged up.
Schedule: The Bills to open could be dangerous, but the Browns, Patriots, Eagles to follow has promise.
Andy Dalton, CIN
Dalton has a new offensive mind at the helm who should make things easier for him, but he lost his starting left tackle for the season and his #1 receiver will miss some time. There’s upside here, but risk to match.
Update: The optimism is fading a bit from the Bengals offense, but at least John Ross is supposedly going to be back for Week 1 and Tyler Eifert isn’t hurt yet.
Schedule: Seahawks and 49ers to start the year could get this offense off on the right foot. Bills in Week 3 is more of a challenge and then a trip to Pittsburgh.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF - Avoid at ADP - Faller
If Kyle Shanahan was able to make this offense go without Garoppolo last year, how good can it be with him? The team also added Deebo Samuel in the second round and the young wide receiver corps should be healthier and better this year.
Update: Garoppolo has had a camp with more downs than ups and his receiver have failed to distinguish themselves.
Schedule: It might be nerve-wracking after Garoppolo’s shaky camp, but the Bucs and Bengals to open is very favorable, followed by the Browns and Steelers.
Matthew Stafford, DET
Stafford is healthy again and he’ll get Marvin Jones back, not to mention the addition of TJ Hockenson. This will still be a run-first team, which means Stafford will only be bye/injury/matchup streamer material.
Update: Marvin Jones is getting kid-glove treatment, speedy rookie Ty Johnson should replace Theo Riddick at least partially in the passing game and Hockenson sounds like the kind of player who looks special from day one. Stafford’s overall outlook is unchanged.
Schedule: Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Chiefs to open sounds like a set of games that will force the Lions offense to open up more than they want, which is good for Stafford as fallback QB2 in Superflex/2QB leagues.
Derek Carr, OAK
Carr gained Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams at wide receiver and Trent Brown on the offensive line this year, and he has a shiny new starting running back who can add value in the passing game. Jon Gruden’s offenses have never been laughable, but Carr has to be bolder than last year to matter in fantasy leagues.
Update: Antonio Brown is causing head-to-toe drama but should be ready for Week 1. Darren Waller has created buzz as a receiving tight end and Hunter Renfrow is ready for the slot job. Losing Gabe Jackson for at least September and Richie Incognito for a two-game suspension will create some weaknesses in the line.
Schedule: Broncos, Chiefs, Vikings, Colts to open has that plum Kansas City matchup in the middle of some rough country.
Marcus Mariota, TEN - Faller
Early reports on Mariota are encouraging, but this should still be a conservative offense. He can add value as a runner and gives a higher weekly ceiling than others this low in the rankings but is still better off left undrafted.
Update: If you didn’t like Mariota, he hasn’t given you a reason to change your mind. If you like him, you are keeping the faith, but AJ Brown’s injury and Taylor Lewan’s four-game suspension to open the season doesn’t really help.
Schedule: Browns, Colts, Jaguars to open should test Mariota and potentially open to the door to a quarterback controversy with Ryan Tannehill waiting in the wings.
Jacoby Brissett, IND - Riser
Andrew Luck’s retirement gives Brissett boom/bust weekly value in the Marcus Mariota range.
2QB/Superflex Depth
Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Rosen, MIA
Fitzpatrick knows how to create fantasy value, but he’s still behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league with a wide receiver group that has more questions than answers. He’ll be better at creating value for his pass-catchers than himself. It’s hard to know what Rosen can do after he was playing in the worst situation in the league last year. This remains unsettled going into the third preseason game.
Update: Rosen has fought his way out of the corner to make this a real quarterback battle. Either way, both will get pummeled behind the worst offensive line in the AFC.
Nick Foles, JAX
Foles will vastly improve the Jaguars passing game, but they might not even have two starting quality receivers by NFL standards and the offense will continue to lean on the run more than his arm, so he’s a bottom of the barrel option.
Update: The report that Foles considered retiring in 2017 because of elbow issues was buried under the news about Andrew Luck. Foles has never started more than 11 games in a season. D.J. Chark had a great camp and Chris Conley is fitting in.
Schedule: Can’t ask for a better Week 1 matchup than the Chiefs. Texans, Titans, Broncos to follow is a mixed bag, with some caution after the Jaguars couldn’t move the ball the Houston and Tennessee defenses last year.
Joe Flacco, DEN
Flacco is a functional starter and improvement over what the Broncos have been putting out there at quarterback, but he’s not going to be to more than a desperation play in what figures to be a balanced offense.
Update: Emmanuel Sanders looks great, Noah Fant has made some strides after a slow start to camp, and Theo Riddick was added but will miss the early part of the season. The offensive line should be much improved under Mike Munchak.
Schedule: Raiders to open could be excellent, but Bears, Packers, Jaguars after that could be a minefield.
Eli Manning, NYG
Manning will have maybe the most underwhelming wide receiver group in the league Week 1 and he might not be long for the starting job. Hopefully, you never have to start him this year.
Update: Pat Shurmur invoked the team owner when discussing Manning starting Week 1. That should tell you all you need to know.
Schedule: Cowboys and Bills to open could be frustrating games, with the Bucs and Washington to follow.
Case Keenum, WAS
Update: He looks like the Week 1 starter vs. Philadelphia, but he will be duking it out with Eli Manning and the Dolphins starter to be the 32nd ranked quarterback in Week 1 rankings. It’s not like he won the job, Haskins is a rookie and Colt McCoy is added to the growing list of players whose careers have been altered because of the Washington medical staff/decisions.
Schedule: Eagles, Cowboys, Bears to open sounds like we’ll be hearing the calls for Haskins soon enough.
2QB Superflex Stashes
Dwayne Haskins, WAS
If Washington is rational, Haskins will be starting Week 1 to learn on the job, unless he just isn’t ready to be on an NFL field. Even if he isn’t Week 1, he should have the most starts of any quarterback this year on what should be a rebuilding team.
Update: Haskins looks not ready for prime time.
Daniel Jones, NYG
Jones has rushing upside, and the Giants will turn to him as soon as Eli Manning is the reason they go on a prolonged losing streak, or when they are out of the playoff race. So probably in October or November at the latest.
Update: Jones has looked great in preseason and will be starting soon unless Eli found the fountain of youth.
