What We're Watching: NFC WEST
The NFL season is underway as all 32 teams will be opening training camp this week. The brief lull of the early summer is over, and it's time now to put the fantasy preparation into overdrive. As always, Footballguys is here to be your guide to another great season. Here's what we're watching for in the NFC West:
ARIZONA CARDINALS
No team will be more scrutinized once camps get underway, as GM Steve Keim tore up last year’s failed rebuilding plan for a new plan that could be an unbridled success or such a colossal failure it’ll cost Keim his job. The Cardinals were the worst team in football last year, finishing 3-13, and ranking dead last offensively (32nd in points) and near the bottom defensively (26th in points allowed). The season cost Steve Wilks his job after just one season at the helm, and they replaced him with wunderkind Kliff Kingsbury – best known for coaching Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech. The season also cost Josh Rosen – last year’s first-rounder – his job as Arizona used the first overall pick on Kyler Murray. Hope springs eternal, but hope doesn’t win games. Hard work and talent do.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/17 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- Los Angeles Chargers 10:00pm ET
- Aug 15 -- Oakland 8:00pm
- Aug 24 -- @Minnesota 1:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @Denver 9:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Can the Air Raid succeed in the NFL? – A lot of aspirational NFL analysts are rooting for Kingsbury because they adore the idea of college’s favorite system barnstorming the NFL and putting traditional methods on their backs. Does Kingsbury intend to use 4-WR sets as the baseline? Last year, NFL teams used 4-WR formations less than 2% of the time. Will Arizona go with a no-huddle? Will they space the lineman, thus inviting blitzes and pass rush? How will Kingsbury adjust if NFL defenses have the speed and discipline to neutralize the Air Raid in ways most college teams cannot?
- Is Kyler Murray the real deal? – Kyler Murray was a professional baseball player moonlighting as a spread quarterback a few months ago; now he’s the first overall pick and the Arizona Cardinals new face of the franchise. Can the 5’10”, 200-pounder take an NFL pounding? Does his one year of elite experience in a gimmicky offense translate to NFL success?
- How does David Johnson look? – Johnson is a consensus first-round fantasy pick, but should he be? How will Johnson do in an Air Raid system? Does his success under Bruce Arians translate to Kingbury’s playbook?
- How will the receiving roles shake out? – Assuming the Cardinals will use 3-WR and 4-WR sets frequently, will the targets be spread around? Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk return but have two rookies – Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler – vying for roles, too. Will the new coaches defer to the veterans, or is everyone on equal footing entering camp?
- Can the offensive line be less offensive? – One NFL scout called the Cardinals line the worst unit of the last twenty years. While that’s probably an exaggeration, the reality is Arizona’s line was a crippling problem last year. Footballguys’offensive line expert Matt Bitonti ranks the Cardinals unit 30th, mainly in recognition of new right tackle Marcus Gilbert. Gilbert was a stalwart in Pittsburgh and is a clear-cut upgrade. The other positions remain tenuous, including left guard where Mike Iupati and J.R. Sweezy swapped spots (with Sweezy joining the Cardinals while Iupati went to Seattle).
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Sean McVay’s second season was a success, although it ended bitterly. After steamrolling through the regular season (13-3, NFC West champs), and advancing to the Super Bowl, the wheels fell apart against the Patriots. Bill Belichick outcoached McVay and neutralized Jared Goff and the offense, which was already limited by Todd Gurley’s mystery ailment. In spite of the way 2018 finished, the Rams head to camp in Irvine as one of the favorites in the NFC. The Rams offense ranked 2nd in points and yards last year and returns all the key pieces. The defense, on the other hand, has some explaining to do (20th in points, 19th in yards allowed).
Camp Details:
- When: 7/24 (Rookies) / 7/26 (Veterans)
- Where: University of California, Irvine (Irvine, CA)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 10 -- @Oakland 8:00pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- Dallas 10:00pm
- Aug 24 -- Denver 9:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @Houston 8:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Shaking off the playoff hangover – Jared Goff was 19-for-38 for 198 yards, zero touchdowns, and an interception in the Super Bowl. Todd Gurley touched the ball 12 times for 34 yards. C.J. Anderson – the playoff hero – had 32 yards. It was a disaster. The good news is they don’t have to play the Patriots every week, and McVay is young enough to expect that experience to serve as a catalyzing moment.
- Reading the Todd Gurley tea leaves – Gurley’s knee has the fantasy industry shook. He won’t play in the preseason, but he is expected to practice. If he practices regularly, his ADP will creep back higher. But if he’s in and out of practice, or has a setback that sidelines him for a period, the siren song of worry will become deafening.
- How does Darrell Henderson look? – The plan to rest Gurley means rookie Henderson should get plenty of snaps with the 1st-team. If Henderson looks explosive in that role, particularly in the 2nd and 3rd preseason games, he’ll become everyone’s favorite rookie draft pick.
- Is Cooper Kupp healthy? – Kupp was on pace for 80 catches, 1,132-yard, 12-touchdown pace before tearing his ACL in November. His rehab has gone well, and he won’t start training camp on the PUP list. The fantasy community is still hedging their bets on Kupp, so a strong start to camp will push his ADP several rounds higher. On the other hand, if he has a setback, it more clearly sets both Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks as every week top-20 options.
- Has Wade Phillips lost his touch? – It’s hard to find a defensive coordinator with a better record than Wade Phillips, and his hiring was considered a coup for McVay. Yet, in spite of spending huge dollars on defensive personnel, and having the league’s best defender – Aaron Donald – the Rams unit has finished 19th in yards allowed in each of Phillips’ seasons, and ranked a paltry 20th in points allowed last season. Has the league caught up to Phillips’ defensive schemes, or will the old legend figure it all out in Year Three?
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
This is a make-or-break season for Kyle Shanahan, as the 49ers have won just ten games in his first two seasons at the helm. He’s been given a pass of sorts, as his rebuilding project was postponed for a year after Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL in Week 3. But his quarterback is back on solid footing, and enough of the roster has turned over from the prior regime such that Shanahan’s vision is ready for prime time. The offense (21st in points, 16th in yards) wasn’t abysmal, particularly given the lack of its intended starting quarterback and tailback, but expectations are for the unit to push into the Top 12, if healthy. On defense, coordinator Robert Saleh has to prove he’s the right man for the job after a 28th-place ranking last year. The 49ers haven’t made the playoffs since 2013, and have gone through three head coaches in the subsequent five seasons. Stability is sorely needed.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/26 (Rookies and Veterans)
- Where: SAP Performance Facility (Santa Clara, CA)
- Open to Public: Limited
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 10 -- Dallas 9:00pm EDT
- Aug 19 -- @Denver 8:00pm
- Aug 24 -- @Kansas City 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- Los Angeles Chargers 10:00pm
What We're Watching:
- How does Jimmy Garoppolo look? – The 49ers paid Garoppolo like a franchise quarterback after five last-season starts in 2017, which was a gutsy move. He got off to a bad start last season (59% completion rate, 5.8 adjusted net yards per attempt, 13% sack rate) before tearing his ACL, but is healthy and has the best supporting cast of his career. If he struggles in camp, it’ll be hard to buy into the 49ers as a sleeper offense worth investing in.
- Who totes the rock? – Jerrick McKinnon missed last year, and the 49ers turned to a revolving door led by Matt Breida, with help from Alfred Morris, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert. McKinnon is healthy, Breida remains, and the team acquired Tevin Coleman – who played for Shanahan in Atlanta. Will the team use a full committee, or will one of these tailbacks become the definitive lead back?
- Is Dante Pettis a rising star? – Pettis has an up-and-down rookie season but started turning heads late in the season once he became a fixture in the lineup. If there’s a No. 1 on the roster, it’s probably Pettis – but all eyes will be on how he gels with Garoppolo in camp.
- Ranking the other receivers – Marquise Goodwin was a hot sleeper pick last year but was inconsistent. Can a strong preseason re-assert the perception he’s Garoppolo’s favorite? What about last year’s surprise contributor – Kendrick Bourne? Do rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd get shots at major roles?
- Was the defensive shopping spree a success? – Saleh is a respected defensive play-caller, but he hasn’t gotten the most out of the roster. There are no more excuses as the 49ers went crazy, acquiring better players. They used the second overall pick on defensive end Nick Bosa and acquired Pro Bowl pass rusher Dee Ford from the Chiefs. They signed Kwon Alexander to lock down the middle linebacker spot and added Jason Verrett for cornerback depth. The cupboard is full.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Pete Carroll knows more about football than most of us can ever hope to learn. How else can we explain last year’s 10-6 record and playoff appearance? Most industry observers thought Carroll had gone senile by hiring Brian Schottenheimer and Ken Norton as the new offensive and defensive coordinators, respectively. And most thought the defense would be terrible given the mass purge of high-priced veterans. And few thought the team would run the ball well given the state of the offensive line. Yet, Seattle’s offense finished 6th in points scored, had the No. 1 rushing offense, and the defense finished just outside the top-10 (11th) in spite of a significant youth movement. Coming into camp at the Virginia Mason Athletic Center, the Seahawks believe they can get back to winning the NFC West and competing for Super Bowls.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/17 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Virginia Mason Athletic Center (Renton, WA)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- Denver 10:00pm EDT
- Aug 18 -- @Minnesota 8:00pm
- Aug 24 -- @Los Angeles Chargers 10:00pm
- Aug 29 -- Oakland 10:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Chris Carson versus Rashaad Penny – Rashaad Penny was the highly-touted “can’t-miss” rookie, and Chris Carson was the oft-injured veteran. Yet, Carson ended up leading the team with 247 carries, 1,151 yards, and nine touchdowns while Penny touched the ball 94 times, finishing behind both Carson and Mike Davis. With Davis gone (Chicago), some believe Penny can push Carson for the lead role. Camp will paint the picture, but right now Carson is the odds-on favorite since he’s done nothing to lose the coaches trust after last season’s strong performance.
- How quickly can D.K. Metcalf contribute? – Metcalf is a divisive prospect because he looks like an Asgardian God, has sprinter speed, and had a dynamite Combine, but lacks lateral agility and struggled to stay healthy in college. The Seahawks view him as a future No. 1, but is the future now?
- David Moore versus Jaron Brown – Doug Baldwin had to retire, and Tyler Lockett is entrenched as a starter. Regardless of Metcalf’s development, Seattle will have plenty of snaps available for either Moore or Brown, but probably not both. Let the best man win.
- Is there a tight end worth our attention? – Will Dissly had 156 yards and a pair of touchdowns in four games before tearing his ACL, but he wasn’t viewed as a dynamic playmaker coming out of the University of Washington. Does he reclaim the role, or will the coaches be content splitting reps between him, Nick Vannett, Ed Dickson and newcomer Jacob Hollister?
- Finding a pass rush – Seattle’s 43 sacks last year ranked 13th, but traded away Frank Clark (13 sacks) after a contract dispute, and will be without Jarran Reed (10.5 sacks) for six games. No other player had more than three sacks, and that’s a problem for a team who needs to manage the game script to maintain their run-heavy approach. The team hopes free agent Ezekiel Ansah and rookie first-rounder L.J. Collier are the answer, but Ansah is coming off shoulder surgery, and Collier has no NFL experience. If those two aren’t the answer, is there a sleeper on the roster?
