WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: NFC NorTH
The NFL season is underway as all 32 teams will be opening training camp this week. The brief lull of the early summer is over, and it's time now to put the fantasy preparation into overdrive. As always, Footballguys is here to be your guide to another great season. Here's what we're watching for in the NFC North:
CHICAGO BEARS
As the Bears make their way to Olivet Nazarene University, optimism abounds. After four consecutive last-place finishes in the NFC North, new head coach Matt Nagy took over last year and led the team to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Mitchell Trubisky improved markedly under Nagy’s tutelage, and the offense finished 9th in points after a dismal 29th place in John Fox’s last year. The defense, under coordinator Vic Fangio, went from good (9th in points allowed in 2017) to fantastic (1st in points allowed) thanks in part to a better scheme and the addition of All-Pro Khalil Mack. Although Bears fans have to be pleased with Nagy’s first year, expectations are now sky-high, and another loss in the wild card round will be unacceptable.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/22 (Rookies) / 7/25 (Veterans)
- Where: Olivet Nazarene University (Bourbonnais, IL)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- Carolina 8:00 pm EDT
- Aug 16 -- @New York Giants 7:30 pm
- Aug 24 -- @Indianapolis 7:00 pm
- Aug 29 --Tennessee 8:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Can Mitchell Trubisky show further improvement? – Trubisky made huge strides in his second season, but is further growth possible? He ranked 16th in passer rating and adjusted yards per attempt; which essentially makes him a league-average quarterback. If the Bears want to contend for the Super Bowl, the offense has to give the defense more help, and Trubisky will need to go from last year’s 3,223 yards to 4,000+ yards.
- Does Anthony Miller have another gear? – The Bears know what they have in Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel, but Anthony Miller may have just scratched the surface of his potential. As a rookie, Miller led the Bears with seven touchdown receptions on just 33 receptions, but he was inconsistent. If Miller has a strong preseason, he can give Trubisky a true No. 1 outside option, which would put Robinson into his ideal role as a difference-making No. 2, and Gabriel can dominate out of the slot.
- Who leads the team in carries? – GM Ryan Pace traded Jordan Howard to the Eagles and added veteran Mike Davis and rookie David Montgomery to the roster. Fantasy owners hope Montgomery dominates in training camp to clear the way for a workhorse role, but it’s just as likely he’ll have to share the spotlight with Davis and incumbent third-down specialist, Tarik Cohen.
- Finding a placekicker – While kicking is hardly the most important fantasy category, there’s no question Chicago’s biggest need is finding a reliable kicker to avoid last year’s soul-crushing playoff loss thanks to Cody “Shanky” Parkey. Eddy Pineiro and Elliott Fry are the favorites entering camp.
- Can Chuck Pagano do his best Vic Fangio impersonation? – Vic Fangio parlayed the Bears stellar defensive season into a head coaching job in Denver. Rather than promote from within, Chicago hired Chuck Pagano to run the defense. Pagano is a well-respected, veteran defensive coach, but it’s hard to imagine he can maintain Fangio’s level of excellence. Will Pagano put his own wrinkles into the equation, or will he live by the mantra “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it?”
DETROIT LIONS
When the Lions ownership decided to part ways with Jim Caldwell, they didn’t foresee 2018 turning out this way. Caldwell’s Lions never won an NFC North title in four seasons, but they did have winning records in three of four years and made the playoffs twice. Matt Patricia was supposed to be the missing link to bringing the Lions from good, to great; yet his first year in Detroit went in the opposite direction. The Lions finished 25th offensively and 16th defensively, and ended up in the NFC North basement (6-10). As the team embarks on another camp in Allen Park, there are changes afoot – most notably a new play-caller in Darrell Bevell. Will it matter?
- When: 7/18 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Detroit Lions Training Facility (Allen Park, MI)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- New England 7:30 pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- @Houston 8:00 pm
- Aug 23 -- Buffalo 8:00 pm
- Aug 29 -- @Cleveland 7:30 pm
What We're Watching:
- Installing Darrell Bevell’s offense – Jim Bob Cooter was an unmitigated disaster as the Lions play-caller, and the Lions have changed directions and hired long-time NFL coordinator Darrell Bevell to fix the offense. Bevell was most recently the Seahawks coordinator, and even though things didn’t end well, he did field four top-10 offenses in seven seasons. Bevell is a throwback in that his offenses are run-heavy, in an era of pass-happy game scripts.
- Is Matthew Stafford healthy? – Stafford has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback in six of the prior seven seasons but dropped off last year to QB20. He failed to throw for 4,000+ yards for the first time in eight years, and his 21 touchdown passes were the second-worst total of his career. What’s unclear is how much Stafford’s struggles related to the offensive system, and how much related to a back injury that was allegedly plaguing the veteran passer throughout the season. All eyes will be on Stafford in training camp to ensure last year’s back woes are behind him. If they are, he’s a compelling late-round draft pick.
- Can Kerryon be a workhorse? – Johnson burst onto the scene as a rookie and looked like the franchise’s answer to its long search for a franchise runner. But Johnson missed six games with a knee injury and needs to stay healthy to earn Bevell’s trust. If Johnson shows well in the preseason and doesn’t miss practice time, his ADP will steadily rise.
- Integrating the tight ends – The Lions have four new tight ends this year, and it’s anyone’s guess how the snaps will be divided. Veteran Jesse James is a capable chain mover with limited upside. Rookie T.J. Hockenson has an elite pedigree but may be more valuable as a blocker in his first season. Fellow rookie Isaac Nauta has receiving ability but may have trouble getting on the field given Hockenson’s profile. Finally, Logan Thomas – a good athlete that’s never been a reliable receiver – has designs for a role.
- Is Marvin Jones in the Lions plans? – Jones missed half the 2018 season with a knee injury, and his injury history is damning. Although most expect Jones to step back into a starting role opposite Kenny Golladay, some beat writers believe Jones’ roster spot is far from guaranteed. He’s due $9 million this season, and the Lions can save $4 million by releasing him. If Jones looks sharp in camp early, he could return to fantasy WR2 status as he was in 2017. If he’s slow out of the gates, he could be on the unemployment line.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Green Bay fans better be careful what they wish for, as the Packers fired long-time head coach Mike McCarthy and replaced him with Matt LaFleur. While the McCarthy firing was justified given the toxic relationship he had with Aaron Rodgers, it’s not as though McCarthy’s tenure was a failure. In 13 seasons, he won six NFC North titles, made the playoffs nine times, made four NFC Championships, and won a Super Bowl. That resumes belies the euphoria Packers fans have for the coaching change, but LaFleur is the young protégé of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, and hope springs eternal. Can the new coaching staff return the Packers offense to its prior glory, and will the defense finish in the top half of the standings for the first time since 2015?
Camp Details:
- When: 7/22 (Rookies) / 7/24 (Veterans)
- Where: Green Bay Packers Training Facility (Green Bay, WI)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- Houston 8:00 pm EDT
- Aug 15 -- @Baltimore 7:30 pm
- Aug 22 -- @Oakland 8:00 pm
- Aug 29 -- Kansas City 8:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Installing LaFleur’s offense – LaFleur is the toast of the town because of his connections to Sean McVay, but the new head coach is an inexperienced play-caller. His first foray as an NFL play-caller – last year in Tennessee – didn’t go well as the team finished 27th in points scored, and the passing game was near the league bottom. LaFleur wants Aaron Rodgers to change; he wants the veteran to stay in the pocket and make more “on-schedule” passes. Can you teach an old dog new tricks?
- Sorting out the receiving corps beyond Davante Adams – Adams is easily the team’s best playmaker, but there’s an opportunity for the younger receivers to make their mark. OTAs hinted at second-year Marquez Valdes-Scantling starting on the outside and Geronimo Allison playing the slot, but neither role is set in stone as Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore, Jake Kumerow, and Trevor Davis all have aspirations of carving out snaps in the new system.
- Is Jimmy Graham’s role secure? – Graham has been a full participant in offseason activities and seems secure as the No. 1 tight end, but the Packers hedged their bets by drafting Jace Sternberger in the April draft. Will the new coaches maximize Graham’s skill set, or opt for a youth movement focusing on Sternberger and Robert Tonyan Jr?
- Is Aaron Jones the lead back, or will it be a committee? – LaFleur’s mentors – Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan – tend to favor a single, feature back. LaFleur tried a committee approach in Tennessee, but eventually changed course and made Derrick Henry the workhorse. This potentially bodes well for Aaron Jones, but he needs a healthy, productive camp to turn the potential opportunity into a reality.
- Did the rare free-agent bonanza pay off? – The Packers have never been big spenders in free agency, but this year the front office broke script and signed four veterans to huge contracts: guard Billy Turner, linebackers Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, and safety Adrian Amos. All four are expected to earn starting roles immediately. Turner is the only projected new starter on the offensive line, and the trio of defenders are all meant to stabilize a back seven that gave up too many big plays in recent years.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Vikings head to the TCO Performance Center with feelings of unfinished business. The veteran-laden team entered last year as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it didn’t turn out that way. Mike Zimmer’s team went from 13-3 in 2017 to 8-7-1 last year and missed the playoffs. Although the defense took a step back (from 1st in points allowed in 2017 to 9th last year), the unit remained dominant, particularly in pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The offense, on the other hand, struggled under John DeFilippo, leading to his ouster with three games left to go. Kevin Stefanski was promoted to coordinator and helped the team re-establish the run but to the detriment of the heretofore potent passing attack. Can a bevy of new offensive assistants and a rebuilt offensive line set the Vikings back on a Super Bowl course?
Camp Details:
- When: 7/22 (Rookies) / 7/25 (Veterans)
- Where: TCO Performance Center (Eagan, MN)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 9 -- @New Orleans 8:00 pm EDT
- Aug 18 -- Seattle 8:00 pm
- Aug 24 -- Arizona 1:00 pm
- Aug 29 -- @Buffalo 7:00 pm
What We're Watching:
- Who’s really calling the shots offensively? – Stefanski had one job – establish the run – last year and did that well, but it came at the expense of Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. Although Stefanski was kept on as coordinator, the team hired Gary Kubiak as a senior assistant and Rick Dennison as the line coach; both are experienced play-callers. Will Stefanski be able to put his own stamp on the offense, or will he be the figurehead for Kubiak’s vertically-focused amalgam of a traditional West Coast offense?
- Fixing the offensive line – The Vikings offensive line has been a sore spot for a while, but the front office took measures to fix things in the offseason. A pair of rookies – center Garrett Bradbury and tackle Dru Samia – are competing for starting jobs. Veteran free agent Josh Kline will also be counted on as a starter at right guard. If the rookies don’t progress in camp, Minnesota doesn’t have a viable Plan B.
- Keeping Dalvin Cook healthy – Cook has been dynamic when healthy, but staying on the field has been challenging. He showed late last year he’s fully recovered from a torn ACL, and Minnesota will give him every opportunity to be an offensive centerpiece. Expect Cook to be treated with kid gloves in the preseason, which will give us a long look at rookie Alexander Mattison; who has the talent to handle a full-time role if Cook gets hurt again.
- Getting their money’s worth from Kirk Cousins – Cousins enters his second year of a three-year, $84 million contract with lofty expectations. Statistically, he had his best year but the team struggled under his watch. He’s acknowledged that it’s about more than stats at this point in his career, and he needs to lead his team to a Super Bowl berth to be considered among the pantheon of top signal-callers.
- Can Irv Smith push Kyle Rudolph? – Irv Smith may be the best of a historically-talented tight end class, but will he get the opportunity to show it? When the Vikings drafted the former Alabama star many thought it meant the end of Kyle Rudolph’s time in Minnesota. But the enthusiasm was short-lived as Rudolph signed a new multi-year extension a few weeks later. Would the Vikings have signed Rudolph to a new deal if they planned on ceding his role gradually to Smith? Or will Smith – in spite of his talent – be stuck in a complementary role as Dallas Goedert finds himself in Philadelphia thanks to Zach Ertz?
