What We're Watching: AFC WEST
The NFL season is underway as all 32 teams will be opening training camp this week. The brief lull of the early summer is over, and it's time now to put the fantasy preparation into overdrive. As always, Footballguys is here to be your guide to another great season. Here's what we're watching for in the AFC West:
DENVER BRONCOS
The Vance Joseph era will not be remembered fondly in the Mile High City. In two seasons at the helm, the Broncos won fewer games (11-21) than they did in Gary Kubiak’s Super Bowl-winning season in 2015 (12-4). The team was a mess on both sides of the ball, averaging 26th in points scored and 18th in points allowed in two seasons. John Elway made wholesale changes to clot the bleeding, including acquiring veteran quarterback Joe Flacco and hiring defensive guru Vic Fangio as the Broncos fifth head coach since Mike Shanahan’s glory days. Can Denver get back to respectability this year, or is Elway spinning his wheels as he continues to chase the ghosts of his own quarterback play?
Camp Details:
- When: 7/17 (Rookies and Veterans)
- Where: UCHealth Training Center (Englewood, CO)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 1 -- @Atlanta 8:00pm EDT (HOF GAME)
- Aug 8 -- @Seattle 10:00pm
- Aug 19 -- San Francisco 8:00pm
- Aug 24 -- @Los Angeles Rams 9:00pm
- Aug 29 -- Arizona 9:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Implementing Rich Scangarello’s system – New offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello has never called plays in the NFL, but he does have experience at other levels. Thankfully, his system is a direct descendent of the Broncos’ most famous – the Mike Shanahan version of the West Coast offense. Mike Shanahan begat Kyle Shanahan who begat Scangarello. The intention is to use West Coast principles but be more aggressive downfield, relying on play-action to set up vertical throws, and running the ball off a can’t-miss zone-blocking scheme.
- Is Joe Flacco going to lose his job to a rookie two years in a row? – Flacco’s tenure in Baltimore ended badly as Lamar Jackson took over mid-season and turned the Ravens season around. Will Flacco be faced with a similar situation in Denver, as rookie Drew Lock gets his shot to earn the starting job? It’s probably not a risk in 2019, as Lock is an unfinished product, but Flacco needs to play better than he has in the last few years to ensure he’s not riding the pine.
- Can Mike Munchak work a miracle on the line? – Munchak is probably the league’s most respected offensive line coach, and he’ll have his work cut out for him because the Broncos only chance at a turnaround relies on keeping a clean pocket for Joe Flacco. The team may have three new starters on the line, including Connor McGovern at center, Elijah Wilkinson at right guard, and high-priced free-agent signee Ja’Wuan James at right tackle.
- Can Emmanuel Sanders be ready for Week One? – When Emmanuel Sanders tore his Achilles last year, many wondered if that was the end of his career. However, the 32-year old has been a medical marvel in his recovery and is already doing drills with the team. If Sanders can buck the odds and step back into the No. 1 role, the passing attack won’t be the disaster it would otherwise be if Courtland Sutton or DaeSean Hamilton were forced into the lead role.
- Is the Royce Freeman hype legitimate? – The new coaching staff has everyone excited for Royce Freeman to get a do-over after the diminutive-but-talented Phillip Lindsay shockingly outplayed him. Lindsay’s recovery from wrist surgery has gone well, but Freeman seems the more natural fit for the Broncos zone-blocking scheme. Does Freeman have a chance at the lead role?
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
In Andy Reid’s first five seasons in Kansas City, Alex Smith led the offense to 6th, 16th, 9th, 13th, and 6th-place finishes. To Reid’s credit, he felt the Chiefs personnel were capable of more, and traded Alex Smith away so Patrick Mahomes II could take over. The decision was brilliant as Mahomes led the Chiefs to 565 points (No. 1 in points and yards), and a 12-4 record, and appearance in the AFC Championship game. Mahomes shattered all perception of what a first-year starter is capable of, throwing 50 touchdowns and being named NFL MVP. Now that Tyreek Hill’s situation has been resolved, the league’s best offense returns intact. The defense, which finished 24th, gets a wholesale makeover starting with new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and ending with as many as five new starters.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/23 (Rookies) / 7/26 (Veterans)
- Where: Missouri Western State University (St. Joseph, MO)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 10 -- Cincinnati 8:00pm EDT
- Aug 17 -- @Pittsburgh 7:30pm
- Aug 24 -- San Francisco 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @Green Bay 8:00pm
What We're Watching:
- What can Patrick Mahomes II do for an encore? – Mahomes helped win many fantasy leagues last year, because he had arguably the best season in NFL history, yet cost a late-round draft pick. This year, he’s understandably the consensus No. 1 quarterback which means paying up for a repeat performance. NFL history says to expect regression, but even a 20% drop-off would put Mahomes in a position to finish No. 1 again.
- Is Damien Williams a workhorse? – Williams stepped into the starting lineup after Kareem Hunt’s release and was dynamic particularly in the playoffs (250 yards and four touchdowns in two games), which has many wondering if he can be a top-10 fantasy runner? The coaches are singing Williams praises, but it’s still risky. Williams has 183 career regular-season carries in five NFL seasons; which is not the typical profile of a breakout workhorse.
- Looking beyond Tyreek Hill – Hill’s legal situation ended without a suspension; which was the best possible outcome. He appears set to resume his place atop the depth chart, but the Chiefs offense is potent enough to support others. If Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are Nos. 1 and 2 in targets, who ends up No. 3? Is it veteran Sammy Watkins? Demarcus Robinson? Rookie Mecole Hardman – whom the team viewed as a potential Hill replacement? Or do all of these guys share the limelight, making them irrelevant for fantasy purposes?
- Who backs up Williams? – Veteran Carlos Hyde can handle 20 carries, but he’s not a natural receiver; something that seems essential in Reid’s offense. Rookie Darwin Thompson is the opposite – he may not be built for 20 carries, but he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and runs good routes. Can Thompson earn the No. 2 role with a solid camp?
- Will Spagnuolo’s defense be much of an improvement? – Outgoing coordinator Bob Sutton has a better career resume than Steve Spagnuolo, but that didn’t stop Andy Reid from making a change. Can Spagnuolo’s attacking 4-3 defense improve just enough to take some pressure off the offense? New additions Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu are locks to start, but they’re not alone as Emmanuel Ogbah, Alex Okafor, Bashaud Breeland, and Darron Lee can also win starting jobs.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Anthony Lynn’s second season in charge went very well. The Chargers finished with a 12-4 record and, even though they didn’t win the division, many analysts felt they were the second-best team in the AFC. The offense finished 6th in points scored as Ken Whisenhunt built a highly efficient and balanced unit. The defense finished 8th, which was a mild downtick from its 3rd-place ranking in 2017. The significant concerns entering camp are Melvin Gordon’s holdout and Russell Okung’s mysterious health issues. Philip Rivers turns 38 years old this season, but like fellow veterans Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethlisberger, he’s shown no signs of decline.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/24 (Rookies and Veterans)
- Where: Jack Hammett Sports Complex (Costa Mesa, CA)
- Open to Public: Yes
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 8 -- @Arizona 10:00pm EDT
- Aug 18 -- New Orleans 4:00pm
- Aug 24 -- Seattle 10:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @San Francisco 10:00pm
What We're Watching:
- How long will Melvin Gordon hold out? – Gordon intends to hold out because of dissatisfaction with his contract, but the Chargers appear set to play hardball with their Pro Bowl tailback. Will Gordon be willing to miss regular-season games for the sake of his long-term financial well-being? If Gordon doesn’t report by the end of the preseason, his fantasy value could plummet and leave a lot of early drafted salty about their investments in him.
- Austin Ekeler versus Justin Jackson – In light of Gordon’s contract dispute, the backups are going to see a ton of work in the preseason and be popular fantasy picks. It’s not clear whether the coaches would give Ekeler or Jackson the lead role, or if it would be a traditional committee approach instead.
- Is Hunter Henry back? – Henry was set to ascend into the upper echelon of the position before tearing his ACL, and he’s back to 100%. Will he show enough in the preseason to convince fantasy managers he’s in the top tier?
- What’s going on with Russell Okung? – Okung may miss the entire preseason with an unidentified “major health issue.” The Chargers cannot afford to lose Okung from an offensive line that already lacked depth.
- Can Mike Williams reach another level? – Williams finished WR22 last year, but it was mainly because of catching ten touchdowns on 66 targets; which is an unsustainable rate. With Tyrell Williams moving on to Oakland, Mike Williams should approach 100 targets this year. Can he emerge as a viable 1b to Keenan Allen’s 1a?
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Jon Gruden’s first year in Oakland was an unmitigated disaster, but the good news is he’s only got nine years left under contract. In all seriousness, Gruden’s Raiders were worse than any of Jack Del Rio’s squads. The offense was 28th in points scored and struggled on the ground (27th) and the in the air (24th). The defense ranked dead last (32nd in points allowed) which was cosmically fitting after Gruden traded away Khalil Mack. Gruden and his coaches have a long leash given his unique contract, but there has to be a sense of urgency entering training camp in Napa Valley. At least the Raiders will have a plethora of new playmakers after new GM Mike Mayock’s massive free-agent bonanza and strong draft.
Camp Details:
- When: 7/23 (Rookies) / 7/26 (Veterans)
- Where: Napa Valley Marriott (Napa, CA)
- Open to Public: Limited
Preseason Game Schedule:
- Aug 10 -- Los Angeles Rams 8:00pm EDT
- Aug 15 -- @Arizona 8:00pm
- Aug 22 -- Green Bay 8:00pm
- Aug 29 -- @Seattle 10:00pm
What We're Watching:
- Does Derek Carr have the vote of confidence? – Neither Mayock nor Gruden have unequivocally endorsed Derek Carr, and this is a make-or-break season given the improved supporting cast.
- Integrating Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams – Antonio Brown is the best receiver of his generation and will undoubtedly improve the offense from top to bottom. But he’s not the only addition, as Tyrell Williams signed a big contract to be Brown’s new running mate. Can this dynamic duo turn the Raiders into a top-tier offense?
- Can Josh Jacobs take control of the backfield? – The Raiders didn’t use a first-round pick on running back Josh Jacobs to sit him behind Doug Martin, but Jacobs needs a strong camp to lock down a feature role. He’ll need to learn the team’s blocking schemes to win the coaches’ confidence, but that shouldn’t be a problem based on his college tape from Alabama.
- Is Darren Waller a sleeper? – Waller has had a long and winding road to prominence, but he finally gets a shot at the starting job with Jared Cook’s departure. Can Waller capitalize on the opportunity, and in turn provide fantasy managers with a late-round value?
- Improving the offensive line – The Raiders overpaid for Trent Brown’s services, making him the league’s highest-paid lineman. What’s odd is Gruden intends to put Brown at right tackle, keeping Kolton Miller on the left side. As a rookie starter, Miller was a turnstile – giving up a league-worst 16 sacks. The other battle is between Richie Incognito, Jonathan Cooper, and Denzelle Good at left guard.
