Will James Conner Prove to be a One-Year Wonder?

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THREE REASONS JAMES CONNER IS NOT A ONE-YEAR WONDER

1. Conner is a talent in his own right, not “just a guy.”
2. The offense and offensive line remain one of the better units in the league.
3. The competing talent on the roster in Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell are overblown.

SUMMARY

While some fantasy managers want to make excuses about James Conner’s 2018 success and invent reasons Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell will overtake Conner, the fact is that Conner is the most talented of the three by a wide margin and will continue to dominate touches and targets in this backfield. The coaching staff is one of the few left in the NFL that seems committed to a featured runner. Despite the absence of Antonio Brown, the offense remains viable with Juju Smith-Schuster stepping forward to take his place. The offensive line, which is one of the better units in the NFL, also has managed to maintain continuity through the offseason. Conner’s current ADP in the late-first to the early-second round of drafts is a great value.

CONNER CAPTIVATES

A surprise to many, Conner finished 2018 as the No. 6 ranked back in PPR scoring. It took LeVeon Bell sitting out the season, but when Conner took the job, he proved without a doubt that he was up to the task, despite utilizing a different running style than Bell. He logged a noteworthy 973 rushing yards, 497 passing yards, 55 receptions, and 13 touchdowns. Some of the analytics were equally as impressive as the production. Up until his injury in Week 13, he was tied with Saquon Barkley in tackles broken with 57. While watching the film, one can see his balance through contact was superb and a significant reason he was able to gain an impressive 2.9 yards after contact per attempt.

Despite strong metrics and film, distrust of a second-year starter and doubts about the offense without Antonio Brown have crept into the minds of fantasy players over the offseason. Should fantasy players be leery of Conner or should they draft him with confidence?

CONNER IS More Pro Than Con

Conner's doubters point to the surrounding talent as the reason he succeeded last year. They appeal to the film during his rookie year of a runner who looked much less impressive and efficient. While opportunity and surrounding talent are part of the equation, they are not the whole reason for Conner’s success. Recall that James Conner came into his rookie year only a year removed from a battle with cancer. Those who have been through cancer treatment know what an intense toll it takes on your body. Elite athletes are not immune to the physical challenges of recovering from such a debilitating disease.

Conner was doubly disadvantaged in his rookie year. He was entering the NFL with the normal obstacles that rookies face, such as bridging the emotional divide between college and the professional game and having to climb the steep learning curve to grasp the playbook and refine his integrated techniques. However, he was also entering a league in which most everyone is in peak condition. Normally, rookies have work to do to get in the shape they need to be in to hang with this level of competition. From our vantage point, it’s impossible to know for sure, but it looked as if Conner was still recovering from cancer treatment. He looked slower and did not have the burst or ability to break tackles that he displayed in 2018. Head coach Mike Tomlin cited conditioning as the reason that Conner saw limited work in 2017. That would fit with the hypothesis that Conner was still recovering and explain the leap that he took in his second year. As our own Matt Waldman put it in a recent episode of the Audible, “We all saw what James Conner did last year. It’s not because he’s just a slappy behind a great line. I mean, this guy was dramatically improved as a receiver. He looked quick, he has great footwork, he’s strong … I don’t see what all the whining is about James Conner being just a guy.”

STEELERS STILL SPECTACULAR

While Ben Roethlisberger tends to be boom or bust on a game-to-game basis for fantasy purposes, he still is an effective distributor of the football. The Steelers led the NFL in pass attempts last year and Roethlisberger led the league in passing yards. While that will be difficult to duplicate this year with the loss of Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster is very capable of filling the No. 1 role. Expect one of the other receivers, most likely James Washington, to take a step forward this year to pick up some of the slack. Despite the age and wear on his body through the years, Roethlisberger has few if any signs of decline to the point that fantasy general managers should worry.

While not the whole reason for Conner’s success, the above average line play did help Conner have his breakout season. The unit returns four starters from last season. Matt Feiler filled in admirably for Marcus Gilbert last year when he was injured. With Gilbert traded away to the Cardinals, Feiler and Chukwuma Okorafor should battle it out in camp for that starting spot.

CONNER COMPARED TO HIS CHALLENGERS

Jaylen Samuels has been a darling of many since the 2017 Senior Bowl, where he showed just how difficult he is to cover when catching passes out of the backfield. Admittedly, if the Steelers had an offense that was more of a committee, Samuels would be an intriguing change of pace option, much like James White is for New England. However, when considering his skills as a ball carrier between the tackles, Samuels falls short of James Conner. His balance through contact is just not on the same level.

Many will point to the Steelers trading up for Benny Snell and telling the media afterward how much they love Snell as a player as a reason that he could cut into Conner’s workload, if not supplant Conner entirely. Film study shows Snell to be adequate in terms of short-area acceleration, but he lacks burst in the open field. On the occasions he makes it to the second level, he is going to have a very hard time winning races to desirable angles and lanes against linebackers and defensive backs. James Conner is leaps and bounds ahead of Snell in this respect.

CONNER CAN ALTER THE PLAN

There are reports that the Steelers don’t want to use Conner as a workhorse and will split the load more evenly among Conner, Samuels, and Snell. This may be the well-intentioned plan of the coaching staff in the early offseason; but in game scenarios, production will be paramount, and the team will be likely to revert to Mike Tomlin’s tendencies to rely on one complete running back who does not betray the intentions of the offense with his presence. When considering all three runners, Conner is that back who is most complete in both the passing and running game and will not signal obvious pass or run scenarios.

2019 PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Ian Hartitz sees Conner as a complete back:

“Conner should also be lauded for having a complete enough skill set to stay on the field and handle 20-plus touches per game. He joined Ezekiel Elliott, Barkley, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon as the only running backs with at least 200 carries and 50 targets in 2018.”

Scott Barrett of Pro Football Focus thinks James Conner is undervalued heading into this season:

“In 2019, fantasy drafters aren’t treating Conner like we treated Bell when he was in Pittsburgh, but that might just be a mistake.”

CBS Sports projects Conner to be the most valuable back to own in Pittsburgh:

“You may experience some hand-wringing over the roles Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell play in the Pittsburgh offense, but you'd have to go back to 2013 to find the last time a Steelers runner didn't finish as a top-6 Fantasy option. Conner is easily the most likely running back to land there again in 2019, so draft accordingly.”