Photo: Imagn Images

Frustrations Aside, Derrick Henry Can Be A League Winner in 2019

Derrick Henry was frustrating in 2018, especially if you dropped him before the fantasy playoffs or watched him blow up on your bench. The majority of his season was forgettable both from a production and usage standpoint, but he has all the tools to break out this season, and after his dominant December, 2019 is shaping up to be a career year. Here are three reasons why he could help you win your league this year:

• He’s an excellent player with an elite combination of size and speed.
• Despite a slow start to the season, he finished 2018 season ranked 11th in rushing attempts and has workhorse potential in 2019.
• He posted elite numbers in the red zone and is easily the best team option in goal-to-go situations.

2018 By the Numbers

Fantasy GMs that managed to start Henry during last year’s playoffs were certainly rewarded. From Week 14 to Week 16, he pounded 71 carries (tied for the most during that stretch) into 492 yards, seven touchdowns, and an RB1 ranking by an absurd amount of points over second-ranked Chris Carson in standard leagues, and a 10-point lead over Christian McCaffrey in PPR leagues (despite logging only two receptions).

We can spin those numbers in many directions. One direction leads down the path of an RB16 finish in PPR scoring and RB12 in non-PPR. The other direction notes that those rankings drop to RB39 and RB34 respectively when you eliminate Weeks 14-16. That three-game stretch accounted for 46.4% of his rushing yards, 58.3% of his touchdowns, and nearly half of his fantasy points in PPR and over half in non-PPR. As it turns out, rushing for 238 yards and four touchdowns in a single game (Week 14) has a profound impact on a player’s final ranking.

But we can dig a little deeper, albeit without the luxury of separating out that impressive three-week run. According to Football Outsiders, Henry ranked second in both DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). Those numbers were possible despite the Titans’ offensive line ranking 17th in adjusted line yards, power success, and stuffed rank, suggesting that Henry created a lot of his own success (but again, we cannot isolate Weeks 1-13 to see where he ranked when you remove his end-of-year explosion).

Numbers by Pro Football Focus align with Football Outsiders, where Henry ranked second in Elusive Rating (which PFF defines as “the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking in front of him by looking at how hard he was to bring down”) among running backs with at least 150 carries, and second in yards-per-contact after attempt (YCO/A) among backs with at least 60 carries. Even when you remove Weeks 14-17, Henry still ranks 15th among 57 qualifying players in YCO/A and 18th in Elusive Rating. That’s not as flashy, but it could offer some comfort to anyone who remains suspicious of Henry’s season based on his late-year run.

Of course, we already knew his talents as a runner are only held back by usage. He weighs nearly 250 pounds yet ran a 4.54 40-yard dash, and ranks in the 97th percentile in speed score and 89th in burst score. But in case you need visual proof that he’s more than just a big, up-the-middle, straight-line type of back:

DERRICK HENRY GOEST BEAST MODE FOR A 99 YARD TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/QhpvIUSGFW

— Eric Rosenthal (@ericsports) December 7, 2018

Later in that same game, Henry caught the edge of the defense and blasted home a 54-yarder.

Derrick Henry with a 54-yard rushing touchdown. He now has 11 carries, 219 yards (19.9 yards per carry), and 4 rushing touchdowns. There's five minutes and thirty seconds left in the THIRD quarter. pic.twitter.com/JSkmrWq3WC

— Jimmy Clarke (@JimmyClarke) December 7, 2018

Clocking in at 21.74 miles-per-hour, that play happened to be the 12th fastest recorded touchdown by a ball carrier in 2018. These are obviously cherry-picked plays, but they demonstrate just how much talent the Titans are leaving on the bench when they don’t give him double-digit carries.

The Right Kind of Workhorse

A quick glance over Henry’s snap percentage and offensive touches paints another running back by committee picture, with Dion Lewis holding a 60/40 advantage in terms of team snap percentage.

Cleary, Henry’s lack of receiving ability plays a major role in how the Titans divvy up snap counts. From Week 1 to Week 16, he logged only 14 catches—easily the lowest of the 24 highest-scoring running backs in PPR formats. He saw only 18 targets all season, fewer than all but 68 other running backs in the NFL.

And it’s not like he was making up for the lack of passing opportunities by being the workhorse ball carrier. From Week 1 to Week 13, he ranked 27th in carries, 28th in yards, and logged seven fewer rushing attempts than Lewis. Henry’s 215 rushes made up only 47.4% of the team total. He logged five games of single-digit carries on the season, and it wasn’t until Week 14 that he claimed over 12 carries in a game for only the third time all year (Weeks 2 and 3 being the others).

But the usage wasn’t as bad as it may seem. His 47.4% of team carries was 13th highest rate among running backs, and his 215 rushes ranked 11th. Despite not being a part of the passing attack whatsoever, Henry still managed to finish 14th in total touches and 13th in opportunity percentage (percentage of team targets + carries).

His usage numbers got even better when the Titans entered the red zone. Henry ranked fifth in attempts inside the 20-yard line, and sixth inside the 5. Only five running backs logged more red zone opportunities, and of the 19 players with at least ten attempts from inside the 5, he tied Alvin Kamara for the highest success rate in the league (attempts that resulted in a touchdown).

Those numbers make him the right kind of workhorse. Now we just need a little bit more commitment from his coaches so we’re spared of days where he logs single-digit carries. There has been plenty of GM and head coach speak suggesting they’ll ride Henry from the start. He finished this season averaging just over 13 carries per game. Should that number grow north of 15, Henry backers will have a locked-in RB1 on their rosters.

Titans’ Tendencies, Game Scripts, and 2019 Speculation

It’s difficult to know where this offense is headed now that Matt LaFleur is in Green Bay. Arthur Smith was promoted from tight ends coach to offensive coordinator. He has been with the team for eight years as a coach and is widely credited for the success of Delanie Walker.

For Henry to build off of his late-season success, however, Smith will need to generate more plays from the offense. They were second in run/pass ratio, just below the “establish the run” Seahawks, but the Titans ran the fourth-fewest plays in the NFL and averaged just 5.3 yards per. They also scored the sixth-fewest points and logged an abysmal 34.9% success rate (drives that ended in points).

Despite those numbers, the Titans still managed to post the sixth-most rushing yards and a positive scoring differential, albeit a tight one. They finished with a 9-7 record after losing Walker, a centerpiece of the offense, in Week 1, then watched as Rishard Matthews disgracefully quit on the team a couple of weeks later, leaving them short on wide receiver talent, and then dealt with a gaggle of Mariota injuries while Blaine Gabbert struggled mightily in his place.

All of these things matter because groupthink tends to worry about game scripts and how those scripts might be better suited for Lewis than Henry. Indeed, the Titans ran the ball 54.7% of the time when leading or tied and only 42.4% of the time when trailing. But that was still well above the league rushing average of 33.1% when trailing.

It didn’t help that Mariota continued to struggle both in terms of success as a passer and health. Per Next Gen Stats, Henry faced eight or more defenders in the box on 32% of his carries—the eighth-highest rate of all running backs, a clear indication that opposing defenses had no respect for Mariota as a passer. Smith would be wise to utilize Henry a lot more as a pass-catcher to disguise their game plan. Last year, it wasn’t hard for defenses to sniff out the pass versus the run based on who was in the backfield.

After all, it’s not like Henry can’t catch passes. In two of his three years as a pro, with an obvious caveat that he was rarely targeted, Henry posted a completion rate of at least 83%. In his lone playoff game, he caught five of six targets for 56 yards. Even if Lewis is better suited for screen plays and other extensions of the passing game, the Titans must utilize Henry as a receiver if they hope to establish another playoff run.

Being healthy again will also help. The Titans field a decent looking offense with the addition of Adam Humphries and second-round wide receiver A.J. Brown, both of whom should help emerging Corey Davis. Walker should be back in the lineup by Week 1. And they upgraded the offensive line by signing Roger Saffold at left guard. That’s an immediate boost the running game and all the more reason to remain confident that the Titans offense will improve in 2019 while still favoring run-heavy approach spear-headed by Henry.

Final Thoughts

Henry is a tough sell in PPR leagues where his value is capped. But that value is already baked into his price, where, as of late June, he’s falling to nearly the fourth round (RB19, 37th overall). In non-PPR formats, he’s usually available at the end of the second round or beginning of the third (RB14, 30th overall). He feels like a steal in both cases, considering that he brings top-10 potential.

He won’t get the backfield all to himself. Lewis adds a dynamic to the offense that Henry simply can’t offer. But all indications point to the Titans running the ball even more than they did in 2018, and even a small uptick in offensive plays and weekly carries would be enough to raise Henry’s floor and ceiling, both of which are worth chasing at his price. If he hits his ceiling—a realistic possibility—Henry will help win your league in 2019.

Projections

Other Viewpoints

Over on Fansided, Michael Moraitis pegs Henry as a fantasy breakout candidate, noting that he has everything going for him to be a top-10 running back in 2019.

Dave Richard of CBS notes that Henry has top-12 upside:

“What are the prerequisites for a stud running back? Fifteen-plus touches per week with consistent carries at the goal line is a good start. Henry is being aimed for at least that role, if not something even more involved as the Titans try to build on his late-2018 success. Henry's missed one game in five years (three in the pros, two at Alabama) and has the Titans offense in the palm of his hand. He has top-12 upside.”

On Pro Football Focus, Jeff Ratcliffe listed Henry as one of three top tier breakouts:

“If only the Titans figured out that feeding Henry the ball works earlier in the season last year. Over the first 12 games, Tennessee gave him more than a dozen carries just two times, and he was the No. 39 fantasy running back. Henry had at least 16 carries in each of his final four games of the regular season and was the No. 1 fantasy running back over that span.

It’s tough to say whether this volume will continue, but it obviously worked as Henry posted seven scores and an average of 6.7 yards per carry over the final month of the season. It’s a huge stretch to expect that level of efficiency, but Henry has the potential to finally break out if the Titans continue to feed him.”

Follow @justinbonnema