Will Drafting Dalvin Cook Finally Pay Off?

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THREE REASONS DALVIN COOK CAN FINALLY DELIVER ON HIS DRAFT VALUE

1. Cook’s backfield role has shifted from a timeshare to more of a true feature back role.
2. The philosophy of Cook’s offense has become increasingly run-first.
3. The offensive line has the potential to perform better than last year with a new scheme and additional personnel that fit the new scheme added.

The Stars Are Finally Aligned

Mostly due to factors outside of his control, Dalvin Cook has largely been a disappointment to his fantasy general managers the past two years. He has a legitimate chance to change that perception this year. While he shared time with Latavius Murray last year, he will now have the opportunity to dominate touches and targets among the backs left on the roster. Defensively-minded head coach Mike Zimmer’s call for an offense that is rooted in the run game has been answered with the addition of Assistant Head Coach Gary Kubiak, who will employ a blocking scheme similar to the one Cook had in college. The offensive line has arguably improved and Cook has shown that even behind a suspect line, he can do good work.

IS COOK CURSED?

While watching Dalvin Cook in college and tracking his performance in the NFL Combine before his rookie year, it was abundantly clear that he was not the star-studded, check-all-the-boxes-metrically type of athlete for which fantasy players are typically looking. However, those that were willing to take a closer look saw a player that won with superior contact balance, agility, change of direction, and burst. In Cook’s rookie year, we saw firsthand how Cook could hang in the NFL, despite being behind a questionable offensive line. In the four games he played, he averaged over 88 rushing yards and over 20 reception yards per game. An ACL tear cut short what was shaping up to be an impressive rookie campaign. Optimism was high heading into year two, but once again, Cook’s year was derailed by a nagging injury and an offense that was bad enough to get Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo fired in-season. Cook suffered a hamstring pull that he aggravated a couple of games later. He missed five games total on the season. Now, heading into his third year, owners are asking if Cook is worth spending a high draft pick to acquire?

PRICING COOK’S INJURY RISK

Predicting Cook’s risk of another injury is tricky because players who tear an ACL have increased risk of doing so again or having a compensatory injury. There will always be a risk that Cook once again struggles in this area because of prior history. However, Footballguys injury expert Dr. Jene Bramel offers some hope with regard to Cook’s future:

Cook was able to return to form during the last month of 2018 in a string of games with 15-20 or more touches. He's also fully participated in offseason workouts. Both are obviously optimistic signs. Your personal risk tolerance should govern your decision-making on Cook. It's hard to find a pristine injury history in a running back, however. A smooth start to camp without an early August reconditioning injury would be in favor of Cook handling a lead back workload this season.

SPLIT BACKFIELD NO MORE

Latavius Murray was talented enough in his own right that the Vikings felt compelled to use him in a committee with Dalvin Cook. When healthy, Cook was the clear leader of the two. However, Murray getting sometimes up to ten to twelve touches and targets a game took just enough away to hold Cook back from reaching his fantasy potential. That will not be the case this season. The primary backup to Cook on opening day is likely to be rookie third-round pick, Alexander Mattison. Roc Thomas was suspended three games to start the season, putting him behind in the camp battle from the start. He would be cut from the team when his suspension became official. When watching the college film, one can see that Mattison is arguably a better talent than Thomas, even at this early stage of his career. Though Mattison makes an intriguing injury handcuff, a healthy Cook will keep him from earning more than a handful of touches each game. Footballguys David Dodds projects Cook to earn nearly 63% of the team’s carries this year while Mattison nets only close to 22%.

COOKING UP A NEW OFFENSE

Last year, the Vikings were one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL through the first portion of the season. Even after slowing down their frantic pace in the final weeks of the season, Kirk Cousins ranked fourth in pass attempts, behind only Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, and Matt Ryan. Head Coach Mike Zimmer voiced disapproval for DeFilippo’s play-calling, particularly with regard to not running the ball enough. His hires this offseason reveal a commitment to getting back to running the ball. In addition to promoting interim offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski to the role permanently, the team also hired Gary Kubiak to become the assistant head coach and offensive advisor. While Stefanski will call the plays, Kubiak will have his fingerprints all over the offensive design.

Gary Kubiak NFL Offenses (Ranked)

Since 1995, Kubiak has held multiple offensive coordinator and head coaching positions. Over that span, Kubiak’s offenses have placed first or second in rushing attempts six times. For eleven of those years, they were in the top ten in rushing attempts. We can expect an offense that primarily uses outside zone blocking concepts, has similar pass and run looks no matter what set it is operating out of, and sets up the pass based on the success of the run. Cook thrived in this type of scheme in his college days at Florida State, so it will not be a big adjustment for him. It is easy to see him putting up his first thousand-yard season in this type of environment.

COOK’S LINE IMPROVED

Due in large part to injury, the Vikings offensive line has struggled the past few years. The Vikings front office made improving the line a priority in the offseason and as many as four starters will be different from a year ago:

• First-round rookie Garrett Bradbury is slotted at center
• Pat Elflein will move from center to left guard, his more natural position
• Second-year Brian O’Neill (who didn’t allow a sack in 11 starts) gets the full-time right tackle job
• Right guard will either be free agent Josh Kline or rookie Dru Samia

Bradbury was seen by some evaluators as one of the best, if not the best offensive lineman in the draft class. While somewhat of a journeyman, guard Josh Kline comes most recently as a free agent from the Tennessee Titans, where they employed a primarily zone scheme. Speaking about the expectations for this line, Kline told the media, “You’ve got to be tough, be physical. You’ve got to be somewhat athletic because there’s a lot of running involved, obviously, with outside zone schemes, and you’ve got to be a good team player.” The line is improved from a personal perspective, but it remains to be seen if it will come together as a cohesive unit. Offensive line guru Matt Bitonti currently ranks this unit as the 28th best but notes that if Kline and Bradbury gel with the returning starters quickly, that grade could rise significantly. When asked about the Vikings experiment of kicking Pat Elflien to guard, Bitonti added, “The reason I have them ranked in a low tier is that they don’t seem to have clarity about who will play where yet. Will they switch back to the old configuration in a week if this one doesn’t work out? That’s not an ideal situation for building cohesion.” Footballguy Matt Waldman offered some hope for this line in a recent conversation when he explained, “Zone blocking isn't as hard for the linemen as it is for the running back and vice versa with gap blocking.” Knowing that more of the stress will be put on Cook to perform may actually be a reassuring thing. We know based on what we’ve seen of Cook so far that he can make the correct reads, decisions, and cuts. He will be the largest determinant of his success this year, which is all that any fantasy general manager can really ask.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Draft Cook with confidence, for he is a value at his current ADP. A revamped run-first offensive scheme, a line with improved personnel, and the workload of a true featured back make Cook worth the price paid. If you take Cook, it would not be a bad idea to grab Alexander Mattison later in your draft just as an insurance policy, as he is one of the more affordable injury handcuffs of this season.

2019 PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

David Latham of Last Word on Pro Football says we should be willing to take a chance on Cook, despite the risks:

“Even with the injury risk and a possible backfield timeshare, Dalvin Cook is a great pick in the second round. The reward easily outweighs the risk, as he can be a week-in, week-out starter with top-five upside. If he’s there in the second, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.”

Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports has Cook on his list of breakout candidates:

“.... last year, once Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator for the final three games of the season, Cook averaged 16.7 PPR points. Stefanski and assistant head coach Gary Kubiak will call plays this year, and that should benefit Cook in a big way since both want to lean on the ground game.”

Kyle Ratke of VikingsWire thinks fantasy general managers will profit for having taken a chance on Cook:

“... if he can stay healthy (and that’s a big if) and with Latavius Murray in New Orleans, drafting Cook could make you look very smart, assuming you don’t reach.”