Pick-a-Player: Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, or Christian McCaffrey

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• You need a player at that position and all three are available.
• The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted, and none of their bye weeks are duplicated on your current roster.

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This week, you are in a PPR league and are up at Pick 1.02. After Saquon Barkley goes off the board, would you take Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, or Christian McCaffrey? Or would you pass on all three?

The Results

And the winner is Christian McCaffrey. See the percentages below.

Comments from the Staff

Daniel Simpkins

Christian McCaffrey

Ezekiel Elliott has the potential to face suspension for yet another offseason incident, which dampens his outlook enough that he’s not the top guy among this stellar group.

Despite Mark Ingram’s absence, it’s doubtful that Alvin Kamara will absorb many of his touches. The real question fantasy general managers should be asking is who will play Ingram's role in this Saints offense.

Saquon Barkley had an awesome rookie year, but the overall offense could truly be even worse than it was last year. Eli Manning has looked spent in minicamp, and Daniel Jones is far from ready to take his place. If defenses make it their mission to stop Barkley and the Giants have no counterpunch, it could be enough to hamper his output.

Christian McCaffrey is the most likely of this group to repeat or exceed his production from last year. Ron Rivera made it clear this off-season that the offense is going to continue to run primarily through McCaffrey. An emerging D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel will keep the Carolina offense from becoming one-dimensional. Cam Newton seems to be progressing in his rehab, but even if the worst happens and he does not play, Will Grier offers a viable backup plan that fits well with this timing-based offense.

Jason Wood

Among the thousands of predictions we make each year, this one is among the lowest conviction. But it’s okay because I think you cannot go wrong with this trio. There is a cavernous dropoff after the top four running backs, I think it’s one of those rare years when your draft position is a vital asset or liability depending. The 1.04 spot is the best draft pick in any redraft, serpentine format.

But since you’ve asked me to choose, I’m going with Alvin Kamara by the slimmest margin. He’s been the No. 4 running back in each of his first two seasons and benefits this year from Mark Ingram’s departure.

Adam Harstad

I don't have a lot to offer in terms of differentiating these three. But I've been working on figuring out historical fantasy value back to 1985 and I can say pretty unequivocally that this is one of the best "top 4"s we've ever had to work with.

If you wanted to make arguments for any of these guys, the data is there. For instance:

• Saquon Barkley just had the most valuable rookie season of anyone in my data set, (again: all backs since 1985).
• Ezekiel Elliott had the 3rd-best rookie season (behind Barkley and Edgerrin James). If you pro-rate his numbers in year two to account for his suspension, he's tied with Portis for fourth in fantasy value through two years and he stands third in fantasy value through three years (behind James and LaDainian Tomlinson).
• Alvin Kamara ranks 2nd in fantasy value through two seasons in PPR leagues, behind Edgerrin James.
• Christian McCaffrey is coming off the 3rd-best season by a running back age 22 or younger, behind James' sophomore year and Barkley's rookie year and ahead of James' rookie year and Le'Veon Bell's sophomore year.

Remember, this is a sample that includes Hall of Famers like Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Terrell Davis, and Adrian Peterson who took the league by storm very early in their careers... and these young backs are not just keeping pace, they're outperforming them (at least for fantasy purposes).

Which is a really long-winded way of saying there aren't really "right answers" or "wrong answers" here. (Except Christian McCaffrey is actually the right answer.)

James Brimacombe

I think the safe play is McCaffrey, but if you want to roll the dice with Elliott and disregard all his off-field issues, he feels like the guy that can have a massive season.

Alex Miglio

Elliott was fifth in fantasy scoring last season despite scoring just nine total touchdowns. He was one of two players in the Top 10 at his position with single-digit touchdowns. You could view this one of two ways -- either he is a liability because of his lack of touchdown production, or he is due for a touchdown regression and fantasy explosion.

Considering Zeke's talent, situation, and the fact he scored just about one touchdown per game on average in his first two seasons, the latter is likelier. Look for Elliott to reprise his role as bell cow in Dallas with roughly 350-400 touches, and we have all seen what he can do with that kind of volume. If healthy, he'll command 100-plus targets, making him a PPR stud as well, per usual.

Ryan Hester

As others have said, the margins are razor thin here, and any of these players could finish as the overall RB1. As a matter of fact, I’d take any of these three ahead of Barkley because I have a personal bias against taking players in potentially putrid offenses — even if they are as talented as Barkley and likely to occupy a massive piece of the offensive pie.

But back to the task of answering this question, I’d rank them McCaffrey, Kamara, then Elliott. It’s nitpicking and intuition, but Kamara’s production seems the least sustainable among the three. He had an impressive 14 rushing touchdowns last season, but he only had 194 carries. And while Mark Ingram is gone, the team brought in Latavius Murray to help shoulder the backfield load. Over the last four seasons, only Todd Gurley (46) has more rushing touchdowns than Murray (32). Coincidentally, Ingram is fifth on that list (30). Ingram out/Murray in may not be as big a boon for Kamara as many think.

McCaffrey, on the other hand, seems like the player whose workload could remain or increase among these three. McCaffrey had 219 carries last year, which seems repeatable. And even though his 107 receptions from 2018 is hard to project — even for a player of his talent — at the time of this writing, our four projections experts have McCaffrey pegged for an average of 98 catches.

From a depth chart perspective, Carolina did nothing at the running back position, as career backup-at-best Cameron Artis-Payne occupies the team’s RB2 slot. And while Kamara has Michael Thomas to pull a large chunk of the New Orleans target share, Carolina’s wide receivers group is headed by D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel with Chris Hogan third.

As for Elliott, I’m bullish on the Dallas offense as a whole with Kellen Moore’s promotion to offensive coordinator to replace the predictably boring Scott Linehan. Elliott will continue to be a key cog, but his total of 77 receptions doesn’t seem repeatable with Amari Cooper around for a full season. The choice between Elliott and Kamara comes down to a large chunk of an above average offense (Elliott) vs. a slightly smaller piece of a potentially elite offense (Kamara). In most cases — this one included — I’ll take the latter. For me, it’s easier to predict an offensive unit as a whole vs. the workload of each individual player within it. And while Dallas’ offense should be improved, the New Orleans offense is a known commodity.

Phil Alexander

I have McCaffrey as my RB1 in PPR leagues, so I'd be relieved whoever picked ahead of me elected to invest in the Giants offense instead. McCaffrey finished just 2.3 fantasy points behind Barkley last season, and assuming Cam Newton's shoulder is healthy, the continued development of young wide receivers D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel have the arrow pointing up for Carolina's offense. An elusive 1,000-yards rushing and receiving season is within McCaffrey's range of outcomes, which can't be said of any other player in football.

Harstad

Phil, 1000/1000 is absolutely within Barkley and Kamara’s range of outcomes, too. Kamara has topped both 700 rushing and receiving yards in each of his first two seasons and no team throws more to its running backs than the Saints. Barkley had 700 receiving yards last year even before the Giants shipped off Beckham.

Andy Hicks

Count me into the Ezekiel Elliott camp as well, although this is a situation where I would be happy with any of the three.

I prefer Elliott because he has that extra year experience over the other two guys and his touchdowns figures are going to be more reliable that Kamara and McCaffrey. Elliott probably will have a lower reception total than the other guys, but it will be more than made up by the high likelihood of an extra 100 carries.

The Dallas offense runs through Ezekiel Elliott. While the presence of Drew Brees and Cam Newton mean that Kamara and McCaffrey, while still highly vital, are not the main threat.

Clayton Gray

I'll pick Elliott. If it weren't for his off-the-field issues, I'd have him at 1.01.

Jeff Haseley

McCaffrey. 100-catch experience and rising rushing numbers seal the deal for me. The main reason why I chose him over Ezekiel Elliott is the chance that Elliott could get himself in trouble, which would result in another suspension. When deciding between the two, why take a risk? The tiebreaker is the lack of risk associated with McCaffrey.

Jeff Pasquino

My choice would be Kamara because I had success last year picking players predominantly from high powered offenses. The reason I do this is that I want players that are going to be in the game script regardless of how the game is going by the fourth quarter. Kamara should be in any game script whether they're ahead when he'll be running it or if they're behind when Brees will be connecting with him on short passes out of the backfield. Kamara is the most likely to be seeing touches for all four quarters regardless of how the game is going, and that's what I want from a high pick - a high floor and productivity for 60 minutes every weekend.

Dan Hindery

You can't go wrong with any of the three but I am leaning Alvin Kamara with touchdown expectation as the slight tie-breaker.

• Kamara had 29 touchdowns in his last 25 regular season games.
• Elliott had 19 and McCaffrey 15 over the same stretch.

Maurile Tremblay

In PPR scoring, I have McCaffrey projected for a single fantasy point more than Kamara on the season. Elliott isn’t far behind, and then there’s a huge drop-off to the next tier.

McCaffrey’s biggest selling point is that he’ll be the dominant focus of his team’s offense, both in the running game and in the passing game. He is the closest thing there is to Saquon Barkley in that regard.

Will Grant

Kamara. As much as I'd love to have Elliott on my team, I think he's gonna miss some time.

With Mark Ingram out of the way, Kamara has a reasonable chance to be the #1 fantasy running back this year.

Alexander

Adam, I can’t project enough touches for Kamara to finish 1,000/1,000. Latavius Murray is a 1:1 replacement for Ingram and might even be an improvement. Running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, Murray will be able to earn his touches.

I’ll concede 1,000/1,000 is also a possibility for Barkley. I’m not sure if Beckham’s departure will help Barkley as much as it hurts New York’s offense in aggregate. Defenses will be selling out to stop Barkley, and if Daniel Jones makes starts this season, it’s possible the Giants offense becomes too terrible for even Barkley to overcome. It’s certainly possible he can get there through sheer usage, but I’m far more confident in McCaffrey’s surroundings providing the boost needed for a historic season.

Bruce Hammond

Knucklehead factor aside, I'll go with Elliott. There's room to grow his touchdowns while maintaining total yards, whereas the other two are more likely to see their touchdowns regress some. Also, I have a greater comfort level in Elliott's durability over lots of touches than with the smaller backs.

Justin Howe

It's McCaffrey for me. 326 touches last year - and in many leagues, he got a whole point for 107 of them. He's the unquestioned centerpiece of an ascending offense. There's no game script that darkens his day's outlook and no noteworthy depth behind him. And unlike Elliott, there's no apparent reason to project any missed games.

Devin Knotts

This is a tough one, but if I'm drafting today, I'm taking Elliott. At the 1.02 spot, I want the most consistency and Elliott provides that. He touched the ball 381 times last season and in his two full seasons has gone over 350 touches both years (while playing just 15 games). Taking Elliott is not the exciting pick as you know what you're going to get compared to the developing players in McCaffrey and Kamara, but at 1.02 I want consistency week to week. Barring injury, he's a lock for 375 touches, close to 1,800 yards (with 2k upside), and 10 touchdowns (with 15+ upside).

McCaffrey and Kamara are both great players, but Cam Newton's shoulder really worries me as I'm sitting here today and Kamara does not touch the ball enough to be in the discussion for me.

Joe Bryant

I go Elliott here.

For me, this question is not a question of "Who will post the best stats?". It's a question of "Who am I most confident will hit their projected stats?"

They're all three obviously great players. I'd say both Kamara and McCaffrey are more exciting players. And have higher ceilings. But the player most likely to produce stats I'd expect from the 1.02 pick, in my opinion, is Elliott.

And for most drafts, I'm going for "most likely to hit projections" at 1.02.

Select Comments from Facebook

JD D.

Tough one because I had both Zeke & CMC last year, both I think I’d go with Kamara this year because no one ever does well for me two years in a row.

Kaleb B.

McCaffrey. I like Kamara potential better due to his ability to be in a high power offense, but if the Saints get too big of a lead he will lose touches to Murray to protect him. With McCaffrey, he will be involved whether the Panthers are ahead or behind; although he is not likely to produce at the same rate this year (total touches losing some receptions).

Chris M.

CMC - are you kidding? It's not even close. The guy was on the field for 91% of the offensive snaps and had 107 receptions (a record). He is a PPR beast. Foolish to look anywhere else at 1.02.

Lou B.

Kamara. That said, this is a phenomenal problem to have and there isn't really a wrong answer.

However, we've likely seen CMC's (phenomenal) ceiling - it's not like he can reasonably see even more touches. Even still, a slight regression has him remaining solidly in the tier.

Zeke can't quite seem to keep himself out of trouble, and although his latest snafu won't hurt him it should serve as a reminder to his downside - there's a nonzero chance you're without him for a couple of games for reasons that have nothing to do with football.

With Kamara there simply are no questions, he checks every box along the way. Catches passes, has split time and performed, is the red zone option, and his competition for touches is less talented than it was last year.

At this point in the draft, it's splitting hairs because all three will be fantastic throughout the season, but if I have to choose 1 its Kamara.

Alec L.

I would have to go Kamara. He has way more upside in PPR than Zeke and fewer durability concerns than CMC. Not to mention he is in a better offense for taking advantage of his touches, compared to the Cowboys or Panthers.

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