The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit
James Brimacombe: Hockenson indeed is a talented player but we all see what happened with Mike Gesicki last season. Rookie TE's are just hard to get fantasy production out of right out of the gate. Hockenson's ADP is in the range of veteran TE's that can give you more reliable production.
Drew Davenport: The rookie is certainly set up to succeed. The Lions invested significant draft capital in him and it'll be assumed that he is the starter to begin the year. The problem is that the Lions are likely to see a significant reduction in pass volume, and new coordinator Darrell Bevell is not big on featuring the tight end position. Hockenson could certainly carve out a role, but the history of rookie tight ends making a fantasy impact in year one is not a good one. It's doubtful that Hockenson bucks this trend, and the risk is too high because of his current draft position.
Will Grant: Fantasy relevant tight end and Detroit Lions normally don’t go together in the same sentence, but a lot of people think T.J. Hockenson can change that. Maybe he can, but I don’t see it happening this season. Hockenson is being drafted as a primary backup or possible starter on fantasy teams and I don’t see that happening with a Detroit team who doesn’t normally involve the tight end position and Jesse James in the mix stealing touches as well.
Jason Wood: Hockenson is as close to a can’t miss prospect as we’ve seen in a generation. Unlike most of today’s tight ends, Hockenson is a devoted and powerful blocker in addition to having a refined approach as a receiver. Unfortunately, he’s not going to help fantasy teams this year. Even all-time great tight ends rarely do much as rookies, and Hockenson has the chips stacked against him. Detroit’s offense has question marks, and they’re planning on running a conservative, power-running approach. Hockenson is going to be more valuable to the Lions as a blocker this year, than a playmaker. Hockenson could be the most valuable offensive rookie in real football terms, but it would take a small miracle for him to justify a top-12 fantasy draft pick.
Players Receiving 3 Votes
Jared Cook, New Orleans
Drew Davenport: Cook's season was, believe it or not, a fairly typical Jared Cook season despite posting career highs across the board. He was explosive at times, and at others, he disappeared. He scored 193.6 PPR points on the year, but consider that 41.8% of his points on the year came in just three games against three of the worst tight end defenses in football. In his other 13 games, he topped 52 yards receiving just twice, had fewer than four catches seven times, and fewer than 32 yards receiving in nine of those games! While Cook certainly has upside based on talent and having Drew Brees as your quarterback, there is no evidence to suggest that the Saints will focus enough on Cook to make him a good pick at his current ADP.
Andy Hicks: Jared Cook continues his NFL tour of every franchise and at age 32, on his fourth team in five years he has the expectation of being a starting fantasy tight end. After his best season to date in Oakland, where he finally looked as good in the box score as he does on paper, he takes a risk in moving to New Orleans as Drew Brees career winds down. It will be difficult for Cook to achieve his draft slot, let alone approach it or even exceed it making him a hard guy to draft. No value and a high chance to disappoint means you should look elsewhere.
Justin Howe: Cook enjoyed his best season as a pro in 2018, catching a team-high 68 balls for 896 yards. Still, that happened on his fourth NFL roster and he wasn’t prioritized by a cap-rich Raiders team before leaving town. Cook has always been long on speed and athleticism, but short on consistency. Prior to 2018, he’d never caught 55 passes in a season and hadn’t topped 700 yards since 2011. Moving to New Orleans brings a quarterback boost, but it’s no longer the fantasy-friendly move it was. Drew Brees has dropped back just 34.3 times over the past two years, fifth-fewest in football. Since 2016, the team’s starting tight end hasn’t topped 12.0% of team targets or 40 yards a game. Even Ben Watson in 2015 drew just a 16.5% target share. His big fantasy line was a product of the Saints throwing the ball 667 times. Cook won’t enjoy anything close to that kind of volume in 2019, so even if he’s mega-efficient again, his upside is capped tightly.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia
Jeff Haseley: Zach Ertz was a huge part of last year's offense for Philadelphia. The only concern I have is the emergence and usage of second-year tight end, Dallas Goedert. If Goedert is called upon to make plays, it will put a dent into Ertz's high-volume production that he enjoyed last season. He's still a high-performing addition to any roster, but there's a chance for some regression after such a dominant year.
Ryan Hester: There is a clear big three at tight end this year, but only Travis Kelce is worth straying from a sound positional scarcity strategy to draft a tight end early. Ertz has competition at tight end from someone on his own team in Dallas Goedert. And Alshon Jeffery will also share red zone duties. Ertz is a difference-maker at the position, but the ability to find a diamond in the rough is easier at tight end than running back or wide receiver, so I’d prefer passing on Ertz and acquiring a cheaper tight end later.
Jeff Pasquino: Zach Ertz is a key part of the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense, and 2018 was his best season to date. The problem with drafting Ertz as the second overall tight end and as a top-25 pick is that there is not a lot of room for upside with a late second-round or early third-round selection. Ertz is also starting to get pushed for targets by his understudy, Dallas Goedert. While the Eagles are one of the top teams to put two tight ends on the field at once, there are a lot of targets for Philadelphia at both wide receiver and running back to compete with Ertz. There are also much better value plays (and sleepers) at the tight end position overall, so unless slides down to the fourth round or later it is likely better to focus on running back or wide receiver for the first three rounds.
Noah Fant, Denver
James Brimacombe: Looking at rookie TEs over the history of the position it is not one you want to bank on to find immediate production. Although with Fant he will have Joe Flacco who has a history of targeting the TE position, it still might take some time for Fant to warrant a draft selection over some other proven talent at the position.
Matt Waldman: Remember when there was camp buzz about Courtland Sutton last year? What about Devontae Booker? How about Cody Latimer? Montee Ball? Denver’s training camp reports have a history with a lot of fizz without the flavor. Fant, like Sutton, is a fizzy prospect because of his top-end athletic ability. However, like Sutton, Fant has issues attacking the football at a professional level of expertise. Fant will be featured as a big-play option this year, but he won't deliver the consistency necessary to earn fantasy starter production.
Jason Wood: Fant was overrated as a prospect, and shouldn’t have gone ahead of Irv Smith Jr.in the April draft. He’s an oversized receiver, and that rarely translates into NFL success in spite of our biases to the contrary. When I watched Fant at Iowa, I saw a kid who could win off his athleticism but wasn’t as polished a route runner as his teammate T.J. Hockenson, and he was a liability as a blocker. The Broncos may have no choice but to play him given their depressing depth chart, but betting on rookie tight ends is always a risky bet, even if they’re skilled enough to play all downs and distances. Fant is more Mike Gesicki than Travis Kelce. Remember that.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Eric Ebron, Indianapolis
Ryan Hester: The anti-Ebron argument is an easy one: touchdown regression. Not only did he score at an incredible clip last season, but he now has more red zone competition and target competition on his team. Indianapolis acquired Devin Funchess this offseason, and Funchess is no slouch in the red zone with his huge frame. Jack Doyle had offseason hip surgery but should play more in 2019 than he did in 2018, where long stretches missed allowed Ebron to dominate tight end snaps and targets for the Colts. Similar production can be had later in drafts.
Maurile Tremblay: Ebron had a terrific season last year with Jack Doyle sidelined for all but six games. During those six games, however, Doyle got more snaps and more fantasy points than Ebron. Expect Ebron's touchdowns to regress in 2019 with or without Doyle in the lineup, and expect his overall targets to decline with Doyle back on the field. It's not crystal clear to me that Ebron should be ranked significantly ahead of Doyle heading into 2019.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee
Will Grant: Walker missed all of last season with an ankle injury and still is not back to 100% yet. He’ll turn 35 this season and is definitely on the downside of his career. Yet some people still think of him as a guy who can be their top tight end. I don’t see that happening. If you’re one of the last teams in your league to draft a tight end, there are plenty of other options to take rather than Walker who may or may not even play a full season.
Dan Hindery: There is too much working against Walker for me to consider him at his current top-12 tight end ADP. First, he is 35-years old and has likely lost a step or two since his solid 2017 campaign. Second, he is coming off of a nasty ankle injury suffered the first week of the 2018 season. He has only recently started running again and could open camp on the PUP list. Third, Tennessee is a bottom-5 passing offense, managing just 186 passing yards per game last season. Finally, Tennessee added serious competition for the limited passing game targets in the offseason. A.J. Brown is one of the top rookie receivers entering the league and the Titans signed Adam Humphries to a big $9M per year contract. Those new additions both excel in the same part of the field as Walker.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Evan Engram, NY Giants
Daniel Simpkins: It’s difficult to select an overvalued tight end because, at current ADP, they all seem fairly priced. The only one that stands out as potentially being a bad deal is Engram, due to the likelihood of rookie signal-caller Daniel Jones starting at some point in the year. Engram may get more targets as his quarterback uses him as a safety valve, but the quality of those targets will likely be very poor.
Chris Herndon, NY Jets
Matt Waldman: Although Herndon had a solid rookie year as a fantasy producer, his volume might have been the beneficiary of injuries to other surrounding talents. The addition of Adam Gase changes the Jets offense and will include greater use of a tight end in an H-Back role. That option is rookie Trevon Wesco, who excels as a blocker and short-area receiver. Herndon has an H-Back frame and straight-line quickness, but Wesco is a more versatile player who could rob Herndon of his receiving-game upside. Herndon will also miss two games due to an alcohol-related offense.
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay
Andy Hicks: All the pieces appear to be in place for O.J. Howard to make further progress towards becoming an elite fantasy tight end, but his current draft price is assuming it is a near certainty. It is far from that. For a start, Tampa Bay has a new coaching group and at best Bruce Arians use of the tight end position is variable. Next, we have the presence of Cameron Brate who has at least six touchdowns in each of the last three years and then we have Jameis Winston. It is presumed that Arians will be able to get him onto the track he should be at by now. What if he doesn’t? Howard is just too risky at his current asking price and the expected return of a top-four fantasy tight end may just be out of his reach in 2019.
George Kittle, San Francisco
Jeff Pasquino: George Kittle had an outstanding 2018 season (88-1377-5), setting the single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end. Some of the reason that Kittle was so productive was the lack of alternative targets for the 49ers in the passing game, along with instability at quarterback. Kittle more than doubled every San Francisco wide receiver in receptions and nearly tripled up all the receivers in yardage. With Dante Pettis’ strong second half (he was WR11 from Weeks 12-16) and the return of Jimmy Garoppolo, the passing game dynamic is ripe for changes. In 2017 Garoppolo focused on likely WR2 Marquise Goodwin as his primary receiver, which resulted in Goodwin’s WR1 status over the last six contests that year. Goodwin racked up a 56-962-2 stat line two years ago, buoyed by those six games with Garoppolo (33-460-1). Garoppolo will likely spread the ball around, which will limit Kittle’s upside to a lower level than last season.
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh
Justin Howe: Traditionally speaking, there’s not a lot of tight end volume in this Pittsburgh offense. Dating back to Heath Miller’s retirement in 2016, they’ve targeted the position at a modest 17.8% clip, and no one has topped 50 receptions in a season. Yes, Antonio Brown vacates about a million targets, and that could certainly drive up McDonald’s share. But it’s also safe to assume the Steelers will throw considerably less after 713 attempts last year. Besides, it’s unlikely McDonald is just the transcendent talent they’ve been waiting for. Last year, in his true breakout season, he failed to top 50 yards in any of the team’s last 10 games. The oft-injured McDonald has also never played a full season, averaging just 12 over his 6 seasons. McDonald isn’t a bad play by any stretch, as long as he’s drafted appropriately, on speculative value. Those chasing him into the Hunter Henry/Eric Ebron range, though, are likely overpaying.
