It’s hard to believe we’re a week away from the NFL regular season. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, accordingly, a lot can change from our original expectations. Here’s a quick look at some of the most significant changes from my initial thoughts back in early May.
On Second Thought...
Christian Kirk (ARI) may be a cog in the wheel
I still believe in Kirk’s talent, but I’m left doubting his role. We didn’t see much of Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid in the preseason, by design. But the beat writers have sung the praise – and criticized – a litany of Cardinals receivers this summer. For every Kirk tout, there have been KeeSean Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald touts; not to mention touts for Andy Isabella, Damiere Byrd, and Trent Sherfield. If we’re so confident in the Air Raid’s translation to the NFL, why aren’t we also open to the idea there won’t be a 120+ target star among the receivers?
Miles Boykin (BAL) should be a priority target in dynasty leagues
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown universally ranked higher than Boykin in dynasty rankings a few months ago, and Brown still has a bright future. But anyone paying attention to Ravens camp noticed Boykin. The former Golden Domer stepped into NFL camp and made it look effortless. He’s fit from Day 1. It’s not clear the Ravens will throw enough this year for any receiver to be a must-start, but Boykin stands to be the odds-on favorite to prove us wrong.
John Brown (BUF) and all the Bills receivers are low-priority options
Josh Allen may be the worst passer among NFL starters, and even if he’s not, the Bills aren’t going to be a high-volume passing offense. The Bills receiving corps has depth, but it’s a collection of 2s and 3s, Brown included.
Curtis Samuel (CAR) is good enough to cap D.J. Moore’s upside
Coming into the season, the projected gap between D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel was massive. But a more careful examination of the 2018 season showed Samuel catching up to Moore on a per-game basis as the season wore on. Moore’s talent and profile still argue for a higher ranking, but their year-end numbers will be much closer than we thought a few months ago.
Tyler Boyd (CIN) is a high-end WR2
Tyler Boyd broke out last year (WR17) and yet his ADP puts him on the fringes of the Top 25. That makes no sense, and he’s now WR13 in my rankings as everything has fallen into place. Boyd was good with or without A.J. Green last year, but Green’s injury opens up more targets unquestionably. Zac Taylor is bringing a faster-paced, pass-friendly offense to Cincinnati. And Andy Dalton is healthy after missing a chunk of 2018.
Michael Gallup (DAL) may help you win your league
The Cowboys offense looked lost last year until the mid-season acquisition of Amari Cooper. Cooper understandably is perceived as the difference-maker, but that sells Michael Gallup short. He was good, not great, as a rookie. But receivers often take quantum leaps forward in Years 2 or 3. Gallup has been Dallas’ most consistent, most eye-popping, most productive offensive player in training camp. He’s making the leap, which means great things for Dak Prescott. Gallup is available six or seven rounds later than Cooper but could push for top-25 stats.
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) has super-powered recuperative abilities
When Sanders tore his Achilles last year, many assumed his career would never be the same. The Broncos could have cut him and built around the young receiving corps. But Denver stuck with him, and it seems the doomsday scenario was off base as Sanders has practiced regularly and played preseason games. He’s the Broncos No. 1 receiver and should be drafted accordingly.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) is Robin to Davante Adams’ Batman
Hope springs anew in Green Bay thanks to Matt LaFleur’s arrival. If he gets things back on track, the offense can support more than one (Davante Adams) fantasy star. Those who bet on Marquez Valdes-Scantling are going to be justly rewarded, as he started camp as the No. 2 and has done nothing to lose the spot.
Keke Coutee (HOU) is going to break our hearts, again
Coutee didn’t get on the field until the Texans fourth game last year, but he caught 11 passes for 109 yards and looked like the perfect high-volume, possession receiver to complement DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller’s vertical prowess. But he couldn’t stay healthy, missed ten games, and was a washout. That didn’t prevent us from betting on his again this year, and now it looks like we were fooled, again. He’s missed a ton of practice time and is unlikely to be available for Week 1.
T.Y. Hilton (IND) isn’t the WR1 we hoped for, but he’s still a WR2
Andrew Luck’s retirement is a blow to the Colts offense. Hilton was WR25 in 2017 with Jacob Brissett under center, which should be considered his floor this year. Brissett is more experienced, the offensive line is better, and Frank Reich is a talented play-caller. Don’t draft Hilton as a No. 1, but there’s a good chance he’ll fall beyond the Top 25, in which case he becomes a must target.
Dede Westbrook (JAX) is the perfect No. 3 receiver to target
Westbrook is available in the sixth round of most 12-team drafts and provides the ideal answer to your quest for a No. 3 receiver. There’s a substantial drop off in drafts after Westbrook; he combines a high floor and high ceiling.
Tyreek Hill (KC) avoided trouble, which vaults him back to the elite ranks
This is old news, but still worth mentioning. We weren’t sure if Hill would play at all this year a few months ago, and even after the criminal investigation ended we assumed Commissioner Goodell would slap Hill with a lengthy suspension. It never happened, which appropriately puts Hill back into the Top 5 at the position; he’s worth a first-round pick in many formats.
Mike Williams (LAC) is good, but he’s got a lower ceiling than others in his tier
Mike Williams is talented, but it’s going to be hard for him to break out of the WR25-WR30 range unless Keenan Allen missed multiple games. Williams benefitted from an unsustainable touchdown rate, and isn’t going to see enough targets – the Chargers are a run-heavy offense – to offset the touchdown regression. He’s a fine WR3, but don’t be tempted to draft him as a WR2 and think you’re okay.
Cooper Kupp (LAR) is back, and better than ever
Jared Goff was an elite QB1 with Kupp in the lineup, and a pedestrian QB2 without him. Kupp’s ACL recovery has been flawless, and he’ll be on the field in Week 1 with no restrictions. Kupp, Robert Woods, and Brandin Cooks commoditize each other somewhat, but all three are startable based on the Rams passing volume and their respective target shares.
Josh Gordon (NE) and Demaryius Thomas are back?!?
The Patriots always figure out a way. Two months ago, we were all looking at the roster and wondering how Julian Edelman could handle 200 targets, and who else Tom Brady could target. Since then, Josh Gordon has been reinstated and cleared to play in Week 1. More shocking, Demaryius Thomas caught 7-of-8 passes and two touchdowns in the final preseason game, after spending most of the summer rehabbing a partially-torn Achilles. Gordon has Top-25 upside, and Thomas will be a hot waiver-wire pickup if he catches a few passes in Week 1.
Antonio Brown (OAK) is annoying, but he’s still worth drafting
Brown’s summer has been maddening to watch and unavoidable in our line of work. From the hot air balloon to the frozen feet to helmet-gate, it’s been a soap opera. But all the noise doesn’t change the signal – he’s healthy, practicing, and ready to lead the Raiders in targets, receptions, and touchdown catches.
James Washington (PIT) has a steeper path to breaking out than we hoped
I’d hoped Antonio Brown’s departure would allow James Washington to join the pantheon of elite Steelers receivers. From Plaxico Burress to Emmanuel Sanders to Antonio Brown to JuJu Smith-Schuster, Washington was the next man up. But Washington didn’t grab the baton this summer, and veteran Donte Moncrief is going to start over him, at least in Week 1.
Dante Pettis (SF) is just a guy
Buying into Dante Pettis as a top-25 receiver was a roll of the dice, and it looks like it crapped out. If you haven’t drafted yet, Pettis should be way down draft boards. The 49ers offense looked out of synch, and the beat writers were constant in their criticism of Pettis. His coaches were equally critical. Pettis has too short a track record to give the benefit of the doubt.
Tyler Lockett (SEA) is a top-25 lock
Earlier this summer, I called Tyler Lockett overvalued. That was dumb. I focused on his low target share and unsustainable touchdown rate, but I failed to consider whether his target rate would increase as the de facto No. 1 receiver. He’s been stellar throughout the preseason, David Moore is hurt, and DK Metcalf just had surgery. Lockett is going to be an every-week fantasy starter as long as he’s healthy.
A.J. Brown (TEN) is the rookie receiver you shouldn’t forget about
A.J. Brown is the most talented rookie receiver in a deep class, according to many scouts. Yet, he’s a forgotten man in drafts because of concerns about the Titans passing offense. Marcus Mariota hasn’t looked good, but Ryan Tannehill has and having a proven, veteran backup lowers the risk of the floor falling out in Tennessee. Brown won’t challenge Corey Davis for top honors in Week 1, but he could be on even footing with him shortly after that.
Trey Quinn (WAS) is the only lottery ticket in Washington worth cashing
Quinn hasn’t done much in his short NFL career, and Washington looks like one of the worst teams in the NFC. But, someone has to catch passes from Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins, and Quinn will be on the field a ton as the possession receiver and heir apparent to Jamison Crowder’s role.
