It’s hard to believe we’re a week away from the NFL regular season. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, accordingly, a lot can change from our original expectations. Here’s a quick look at some of the most significant changes from my initial thoughts back in early May.
On Second Thought...
Mark Andrews (BAL) is an ideal target if you pass on tight end early
A few months ago, it was hard to be excited by any Ravens pass catcher. Lamar Jackson may run the ball 200 times, and Baltimore may rank dead-last in passing attempts. While some of that still holds, Jackson has passed the eyeball test in camp and the offense will be more balanced than we feared. Andrews has emerged from a crowded tight end group to become a focal point. He could clean up as a first-down converter and red-zone target.
Greg Olsen (CAR) is back, but it only matters in deep leagues
Olsen has been best by injury, but returned this season and made it through training camp and the preseason unscathed. He was a top-8 tight end in five consecutive seasons (2012-2016) and was on pace for another top-10 season last year before getting hurt. While the arrow is pointing up, the tight end position is stacked with younger, higher-upside targets. And Newton has better receiving options than ever. Olsen will have his moments, but he won’t be consistent enough to draft as a TE1 comfortably.
Tyler Eifert (CIN) is back, but it doesn’t matter, at all
Unlike Olsen, Tyler Eifert has been more bust than boom. Although talented, he hasn’t been a top-20 fantasy tight end since 2015; which was his only fantasy-worthy finish in a six-year career. C.J. Uzomah is the more exciting deep sleeper to target if you’re buying into head coach Zac Taylor’s new fast-paced offense.
Jason Witten (DAL) is back, and it might matter
I think we can all agree Jason Witten looks better in pads than he did in the announcing booth. He hasn’t skipped a beat in his return and should resume the same workload he saw in 2017. While 63-560-5 may not seem like much, it was good enough for a TE10 finish.
T.J. Hockenson (DET) is going to challenge our “don’t draft rookie tight ends” rule
Tight end is one of the harder positions to master, and it’s generally smart to avoid drafting rookie tight ends even if they have top-tier pedigrees. It seemed natural to ignore Hockenson’s long-term upside given Detroit’s run-heavy system and the weight of history. But he’s answered the call this summer and looks more explosive and harder-to-defend than receivers Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Rob Gronkowski (TE5) and Evan Engram (TE5) were exceptions to the rule as rookies, and Hockenson has the same profile and upside. He’s worth the shot late in drafts.
Eric Ebron (IND) isn’t a No. 1 fantasy tight end
Ebron was already a prime regression candidate given the unsustainable touchdown rate (13 touchdowns in 110 targets) but has since fallen out of top-12 consideration because of Andrew Luck’s retirement and Jack Doyle’s healthy preseason.
Hunter Henry (LAC) is one of three “sweet spot” tight end targets
The narrative at tight end this summer has centered around targeting the “big 3” of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. But a second tier of three tight ends – Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard, and Evan Engram have emerged as a more compelling grouping. All three have the talent and opportunity to push into the top-3 this year and are available at a point in the draft where you don’t have to forego elite running backs and receivers to draft them.
Mike Gesicki (MIA) is probably never going to be fantasy relevant
I never viewed myself as a Mike Gesicki truther, but sometimes you have to look in a mirror and do a bit of self-assessment. Gesicki came into the league as an uber-athletic pass-catcher, and couldn’t block any better than you or I. That would be fine if he was able to exploit linebackers as an offensive mismatch, but he hasn’t developed through two training camps. It’s time to move on.
Evan Engram (NYG) is one of three “sweet spot” tight end targets
The narrative at tight end this summer has centered around targeting the “big 3” of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. But a second tier of three tight ends – Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard, and Evan Engram have emerged as a more compelling grouping. All three have the talent and opportunity to push into the top-3 this year and are available at a point in the draft where you don’t have to forego elite running backs and receivers to draft them.
Darren Waller (OAK) is an ideal last-round flier
It’s easy to root for Darren Waller. He’s battled addiction demons for years and nearly lost his NFL opportunity. But he quietly fought back, gained sobriety, converted from receiver to tight end, and now finds himself the starter in Oakland. There are too many other weapons in Oakland to be sure Waller has fantasy relevance, but we’ll know quickly. If you wait on tight end, Waller is the best end-of-draft choice on the board.
O.J. Howard (TB) is one of three “sweet spot” tight end targets
The narrative at tight end this summer has centered around targeting the “big 3” of Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and George Kittle. But a second tier of three tight ends – Hunter Henry, O.J. Howard, and Evan Engram have emerged as a more compelling grouping. All three have the talent and opportunity to push into the top-3 this year and are available at a point in the draft where you don’t have to forego elite running backs and receivers to draft them.
