It’s hard to believe we’re a week away from the NFL regular season. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, accordingly, a lot can change from our original expectations. Here’s a quick look at some of the most significant changes from my initial thoughts back in early May.
On Second Thought...
Justice Hill (BAL) is a part of a young, late-round tier that’s worth targeting
Hill has beaten out Kenneth Dixon and Gus Edwards as Mark Ingram’s backup, and that’s a prime spot to be in given the Ravens’ propensity to run the ball and Ingram’s less-than-stellar injury history. Hill’s generally available as your fifth or sixth running back but has top-20 upside if the dominoes fall correctly.
Tarik Cohen (CHI) has a meaningful downside if you’re drafting him as an every-week fantasy starter
Cohen was the 17th-ranked running back a year ago and is young, healthy, and in his prime. But head coach Matt Nagy has expressed a desire to play Cohen less, and more importantly, the Bears added two well-rounded backs in Mike Davis and David Montgomery who can play all three downs.
Nick Chubb (CLE) was already an RB1, but he could now push for top-5 honors
Nick Chubb routinely falls into the second round because of an unreasonable fear of Kareem Hunt stealing his thunder in two months. Chubb is a more talented running back. Meanwhile, Duke Johnson Jr has been sent to Houston clearing the way for Chubb to play in all downs and distances.
Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) is still worth a first-round pick, but you need a contingency plan
We’re a week from the season, and Ezekiel Elliott still hasn’t signed. There’s a strong chance he’s unavailable for Week 1 even if they come to terms soon and with each passing day the risk of missed games increases. Your goal should be to win your league, and as long as Elliott is healthy for the bulk of the season, those early missed games are manageable. But you need to have a plan, whether it’s reaching for Tony Pollard a round above ADP or targeting your RB3/RB4s earlier than otherwise planned.
Royce Freeman’s (DEN) price is right, but the preseason didn’t confirm a changing of the guard
A new coaching staff, a better run-blocking system, and a healthy offseason all portend great things for Freeman. But Phillip Lindsay recovered quickly from offseason wrist surgery, and the beat writers haven’t beaten enough drums in favor of Freeman taking over the lion’s share of carries. This has the makings of a full-blown committee unless one of them gets hurt.
Kerryon Johnson (DET) moved comfortably into the Top 15
Kerryon Johnson isn’t without risk. He missed a chunk of his rookie season, and the Lions coaching staff has much to prove. But Johnson’s talent is undeniable, and the new offensive system is tailor-made to his skill set. With Theo Riddick in Denver, Johnson has an opportunity to be an every-down back.
Duke Johnson Jr (HOU) has the most improved situation in the NFL
Johnson was barely draftable a few months ago, as he mired toward the back end of the Browns running back group and pigeon-holed as a third-down specialist. A trade to Houston opened the door to RB3/flex value because he was a perfect complement to Lamar Miller. Miller’s ACL vaulted Johnson into the RB2 tier as he’s set for career-high touches.
Marlon Mack (IND) has lost some luster
Andrew Luck’s retirement takes the shine off drafting Mack. He hasn’t put up top-30 fantasy stats in Colts losses but has been a borderline RB1 in Colts wins. Since the Colts won’t be a total train wreck, he’ll have value; but the upside is lessened and the volatility increased.
Darwin Thompson (KC) is part of a young, late-round tier that’s worth targeting
When the Chiefs landed Darwin Thompson, Footballguys’ own Matt Waldman was elated. Based on his analysis from the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Thompson’s skill set was an ideal fit for Andy Reid’s offense. As the summer wore on, Waldman’s view went from niche to the consensus, and now Thompson finds himself backing up a 27-year-old starter who has never topped 73 touches in a season.
Melvin Gordon’s (LAC) holdout is a hyper-risky situation
Gordon’s holdout holds a more significant risk than Ezekiel Elliott’s. The Chargers haven’t publicly indicated a desire to re-sign him and haven’t budged from their initial contract proposal. The two sides haven’t negotiated in months, according to several prominent NFL reporters. And Gordon can show up in ten weeks and get his accrued season to reach free agency in 2020.
Todd Gurley (LAR) will justify the first-round investment, as I said he would
I championed Todd Gurley months ago when many were worried about his knee. What was first an outlier position now appears to be the consensus, as a healthy preseason has vaulted Gurley back into first-round consideration.
Neither Kenyan Drake (MIA) nor Kallen Ballage is worth your pick
Kenyan Drake ranked 21st last year, and many hoped he would be unshackled without Adam Gase at the helm. Yet, the new coaching staff comes from the Patriots – who are ardent believers in running back committees. Drake was sidelined most of the preseason, and the Dolphins project as one of the two or three worst teams in football. Ballage isn’t any better, at least based on his college film. Avoid drafting committee running backs in bad situations.
Sony Michel (NE) and James White are perfectly suitable Top-25 PPR targets
Sony Michel’s knee is fine, and James White is Tom Brady’s second-most trusted target (behind Julian Edelman). Both can be every-week starters in PPR formats, and Michel has top-20 value in all leagues because of the potential for double-digit scores.
Latavius Murray (NO) is not Mark Ingram and shouldn’t be drafted that way
Expecting Murray to step into Mark Ingram’s role and match him carry-for-carry was misguided. The Saints need Murray to shoulder some of the workload because Alvin Kamara isn’t suited to 300+ carries. But Murray won’t be as productive as Ingram was in the role. Consider Murray a touchdown-dependent RB3 versus Ingram’s weekly RB2 value.
Josh Jacobs (OAK) is going to get all the work he can handle
The Raiders could implode, particularly if Derek Carr can’t elevate his play in spite of a much-improved supporting cast. But Jon Gruden plans on running Josh Jacobs into the ground, much in the way he used Cadillac Williams in Tampa Bay. Jacobs’ dynasty value is frighteningly risky because of the risk of overuse, but he’s going to push for top-12 value in redraft leagues.
Miles Sanders (PHI) is worth the price, even though it’ll be a committee
The Eagles are advocates of running by committee, and that’s not going to change in 2019. However, the excitement surrounding Sanders is palpable, and we have to be open to the idea Sanders gets featured more than Pederson’s prior runners because he’s the most talented back they’ve had. At his draft price, Sanders is a lottery ticket worth buying.
Matt Breida (SF) was a steal all summer, but the cat is out of the bag
When the 49ers signed Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida’s future dimmed. The team spent big money on Jerick McKinnon, too, and teams usually don’t ignore players they’ve got a lot of money invested in. But McKinnon suffered multiple setbacks this summer and appears to be out of the 49ers plans. Meanwhile, Breida looks better than Coleman in every way. Coleman might get the larger workload in Week 1, but Breida is going to cost you much less on draft day and could overtake Coleman in a few games.
Chris Carson (SEA) is an ideal RB2 in most draft builds
Sometimes you whiff on an initial outlook. Carson finished RB14 in fourteen games last year and ran for 1,151 yards and nine touchdowns. Rashaad Penny has done nothing to tighten the race, and the coaches have promised Carson will be more heavily involved as a pass-catcher with Doug Baldwin and Mike Davis gone. The arrow is pointing up on Carson, but so too is his price tag. If he’s there in the late third round or early fourth, he’s a high-priority target.
Derrius Guice (WAS) is healthy, but it might not matter
Guice is back from a torn ACL and making plays. It’s not a stretch to say he’s better than Adrian Peterson, but unfortunately, that doesn’t mean Peterson will be subjugated. More importantly, All-Pro Trent Williams has no intention of showing up and Washington projects as a bottom-five team. It’s difficult for committee backs on bad teams to have fantasy value. But Guice’s price is cheap enough to roll the dice.
