It’s hard to believe we’re a week away from the NFL regular season. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, accordingly, a lot can change from our original expectations. Here’s a quick look at some of the most significant changes from my initial thoughts back in early May.
On Second Thought…
Kyler Murray (ARI) is still overvalued
To win a league, you have to take risks. Maybe Kyler Murray will turn the league on its ear. But I see so much downside risk that drafting him as a QB1 is unconscionable. Kliff Kingsbury couldn’t win games in college with Patrick Mahomes II as his quarterback. That’s like losing your local softball league with Mike Trout in the lineup. Kyler Murray was effectively a one-year college starter. And he weighs less than 200 pounds. And the Cardinals have a terrible offensive line. But I’m sure it’s going to be revolutionary.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) is a must-target if you wait on a quarterback
I dismissed Jackson earlier this summer because I doubted an NFL offense could thrive with a quarterback who runs 150-200 times. But I underestimated his ability to make NFL throws. He’s not going to be confused for Aaron Rodgers, but the Ravens coaches have significantly upgraded his receiving corps, and he’ll be able to hit open receivers. Plus, every quarterback in NFL history with 700+ yards rushing has been a fantasy star. Jackson may bet 1,000 yards.
Cam Newton (CAR) is better off AS someone else’s headache
I’ve done a 360 on Cam this summer. I was pessimistic because of the injury and the idea of trying to rebuild a 30-year-old’s throwing motion. Then he looked healthy, and he’s got the best receiving corps of his career, so I warmed to him. But then he hurt his foot, and I’m back off him. You should be, too. It feels like all those hits he’s taken are starting to have a compounding impact.
Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) hasn’t earned our trust yet
Trubisky had his moments last year, but Matt Nagy wouldn’t unleash the young passer, either. An elite defense, strong ground game, and favorable schedule played into favorable game scripts. Will that be the case this year with a more difficult schedule? I’m okay with drafting Trubisky at ADP, but only if it’s as your backup or No. 2 in a Superflex league. There are far more enticing options if you employ a late-round quarterback strategy.
Dak Prescott (DAL) is the ultimate eye-of-the-beholder quarterback
Who is Dak Prescott? He was QB17 last year before the Amari Cooper trade. He was QB8 after. He’s never thrown more than 23 touchdowns, but he’s also run for six scores every season. What if the passing touchdowns increase while the rushing touchdowns stay constant? What if the opposite happens? He’s a relatively low-volume passer and doesn’t put up big rushing numbers, but 18 rushing touchdowns in three seasons is impossible to call a fluke. The truth lies somewhere in between, which makes him a lower-end QB1, or a high-end QB2. Pick your poison.
Jacoby Brissett (IND) has value in Superflex and 2QB leagues
Brissett wasn’t good in 2017, but things have changed. He was two weeks into his Colts tenure and had two NFL games under his belt in New England. The Colts line was terrible. The receiving corps was banged up. Now he’s an experienced veteran, who knows the playbook, has seen Andrew Luck execute, and has an elite offensive line with much better supporting talent. It shouldn’t shock anyone if he pushes for QB2 value, ahead of a lot of bigger-name veterans.
Jared Goff (LAR) is a QB1 and should be drafted as such
I think I let the Super Bowl whiff cloud my initial views. And Cooper Kupp’s injury. But objectively, Goff is an ascending quarterback in an elite offense, with arguably the best receiving corps in the league. He’s got a wunderkind play-caller and is coming off a top-10 season. He’s a buy at his asking price.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) and Josh Rosen will start games, and you probably won’t care
Fitzpatrick will start Week 1, but we’ve seen this dance before. When you have two starters in the NFL, it means you have zero. The Dolphins are on a shortlist for the mantle of NFL’s worst, and this situation is going to be frustrating and uninspiring, most likely.
Kirk Cousins (MIN) is a steal on draft day, but he may miss the top-10 this year
Cousins has ranked 9th, 5th, 5th, and 9th in four seasons as a starter. In spite of playing for two teams, multiple play-callers, multiple systems, and different leading receivers each year. Yet, the fantasy community hates him. Minnesota is going to win plenty of games this year on the back of its defense and ground game, so Cousins’ passing attempts may keep him out of the Top 10 for the first time. But he won’t fall far and is still worth drafting well ahead of his QB18 average draft position.
Tom Brady (NE) has a full cupboard but is being drafted like a has-been
Tom Brady finished 12th last season, but most expected a further drop-off because of Rob Gronkowski’s retirement and a lack of discernible depth in the receiving corps. And he’s 42 years old. Yet, a week before the season and things are looking up. Josh Gordon is reinstated and eligible for Week 1. And Demaryius Thomas put on a 7-catch, 2-touchdown clinic in the last preseason game. Brady isn’t drafted in most leagues, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he vies for top-12 honors, again.
Daniel Jones (NYG) will start games in 2019
The preseason can be misleading, but Daniel Jones passed every test – in practice and preseason games. Unless the Giants defy the odds and contend for a playoff spot, Jones will get a shot to wow the crowd and win the job later in the season.
Carson Wentz (PHI) is the highest-ranked quarterback worth drafting at ADP
Wentz is the sixth quarterback drafted, on average. He’s going in the 7th or 8th round of most leagues, which is a perfect spot for most draft builds. If you’re like most and prefer to load up on running backs and receivers before thinking about your quarterback, Wentz is the highest-rated player that allows you to accomplish your goal.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) might be a whiff
Garoppolo had a terrible preseason, and the training camp reports weren’t much better. Was it just Kyle Shanahan ironing things out? Or does it portend problems? Given the price tag, there’s not much risk, but a complete lack of positive news has me worried.
Dwayne Haskins (WAS) isn’t ready, and it won’t matter if he is
Washington fans would love seeing Haskins under center because the team isn’t going to win many games with Case Keenum. But Haskins isn’t ready, and the coaches are right to keep him on the sidelines until he is prepared. When he does get the job, the situation may be dire enough fantasy owners won’t care.
Twitter: @FBGWood
Email: Wood@Footballguys.com
