Note: this article was edited on August 14 with new information regarding Andrew Luck's calf injury.
Note: this article was edited on August 17 with an adjusted rating for New England due to Josh Gordon's reinstatement.
Note: this article was edited on August 26 with news of Andrew Luck's retirement.
In fantasy football, when debating two similarly-ranked two players (especially early in fantasy drafts), GMs should strive to avoid drafting the player on a bad offense because that player could be weighed down by bad teammates or coaching schemes. When an NFL team scores very few points, its players tend to score fewer fantasy points than those with a similar opportunity on higher-scoring teams. Therefore, the purpose of this exercise is to rank offenses as units.
Outside of using our own Matt Bitonti's offensive line rankings, these rankings are solely my own and opinion-based. To calculate the total scores, I multiplied the quarterback score by three because of the position's importance to the whole offense. These rankings are more of a litmus test than something to treat as gospel. A point here or there isn't going to change too much.
And because I don't want to provide an article without actionable advice, I've chosen my favorite player from each team factoring in their current ADP.
Fertile Fantasy Soil
These units are the truly elite groups in the NFL. And in the cases of Kansas City and New Orleans, the ADPs of their key players reflect as much.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 1 | KC | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 31.0 | Mahomes. Hill. Kelce. Reid. Watkins. Plug-and-play RB and he'll be fantasy-relevant. |
| 2 | NO | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 29.0 | Brees may be in decline…but who cares for Kamara and Thomas? |
Favorites by ADP
- Kansas City: Sammy Watkins - His higher-priced teammates are all sound picks at ADP, but Watkins is being overlooked. In the eight games in which Watkins played more than 20 snaps last season, he had only four fewer targets than Tyreek Hill. Even if injuries derail him once more, he's being picked late enough that he can be replaced in your lineup.
- New Orleans: TreQuan Smith - His more heralded teammates Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are fine picks at ADP, but you don't subscribe to Footballguys to hear that. Smith, meanwhile, is basically free in drafts and has a path to 60 or more targets from Drew Brees if he can beat out veteran Ted Ginn Jr.
- Indianapolis: n/a. With Luck "questionable -- at best -- for Week 1," per the esteemed Dr. Jene Bramel, no Indy players represent bargains due to fear of the engine of the offense missing time.
The Best of the Next
This mini-tier isn't quite as good as the elite teams but is a step above the group below.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 4 | PIT | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 27.5 | Perhaps the ultimate case study in "what matters more" regarding QB and OL vs. RB and WR. |
| 5 | GB | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 27.5 | Rodgers still buoys the overall rank. But another power struggle with a coach submarines chances. |
| 6 | ATL | 4.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 27.0 | Ryan better than you think; Julio still around; reunion with Koetter. No sign of downturn. |
| 7 | CLE | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 26.5 | Feeling dangerous? The weapons fit the description and Kitchens/Monken can be fun. |
| 8 | PHI | 3.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 26.0 | The least "sexy" offense with top-tier potential. The health of Wentz is key. |
Favorites by ADP
- Pittsburgh - Donte Moncrief is still priced as though there is ambiguity in Pittsburgh's No. 2 wide receiver situation. There is not. And if you have an early second-round pick, don't shy away from JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has a top-12 floor and overall WR1 ceiling.
- Green Bay - Geronimo Allison and/or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. One will win the starting receiver job. The other will still play a lot. Both will see targets from Aaron Rodgers. Both can be had late in drafts.
- Atlanta - Devonta Freeman can return first-round value as a third-round pick.
- Cleveland - Cleveland's top guys are all priced right. Baker Mayfield would be the bargain here, but there's only so much profit to be gained from QB5.
- Philadelphia - Miles Sanders may not begin the season at the top of a committee, but he'll end it with the lion's share of work. Reports have confirmed his playmaking ability and surprising pass-blocking.
Varying Ranges of Outcomes
We generally know what we're getting with the first five teams in this tier. But the bottom four teams could be a full two tiers higher or lower in this exercise entering next season.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 8 | NE | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 26.0 | Gordon's return boosts the WR/TE rating. Same score as Philly above but less ceiling if Gordon is suspended. |
| 9 | CAR | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 25.0 | McCaffrey. Moore. Samuel. All potential studs that hinge on Newton's health. |
| 10 | HOU | 4.0 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 25.0 | Adding Johnson to the backfield only raises Watson's arrow further. |
| 10 | LAR | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 24.5 | First 10 weeks Rams or thereafter Rams? A difficult team to rate even before trying to predict Gurley's knee. |
| 10 | DAL | 3.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 24.5 | Might be underrating Prescott. RBs rating is pretty much all Elliott. |
| 14 | SF | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 23.5 | Another hard team to rate…Shanahan made a no-name QB functional. Anything could happen. |
| 15 | ARI | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 22.5 | Murray! Kingsbury! Air Raid! Feel the excitement! But seriously…you have to feel the excitement. |
| 15 | IND | 2.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 22.5 | Reflective of Luck's retirement. Indy isn't dead in the water but definitely takes a hit. |
| 16 | LAC | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 22.0 | Assumes Gordon's holdout. Rivers isn't getting any younger. Lost two key receivers. |
| 16 | CHI | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | Trubisky could end up a 4 or higher next season if everything comes together. |
Favorites by ADP
- New England - Julian Edelman. With Gordon's reinstatement, the natural instinct is drop Edelman. Fight that urge and take the new-found value on Edelman and the 150+ targets he should see.
- Carolina - Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore are similar players, yet their prices are four rounds different. Both should be on the field plenty.
- Houston - Duke Johnson Jr. The new acquisition won't get RB1 volume, but his outlook improved dramatically with the trade. And if Lamar Miller misses time, Johnson's ceiling raises significantly.
- L.A. Rams - Darrell Henderson is the sexy pick, which made his ADP rise this summer. But sometimes, the sexy pick is such for a reason. He has standalone flex value as a floor and an RB1 ceiling.
- Dallas - Dak Prescott is the ideal streamer with QB1 potential. He starts with a cakey schedule (vs. NYG, at WAS, vs. MIA). And at mid-QB2 pricing, he can be replaced from the waiver wire if he fails.
- San Francisco - Matt Breida is the No. 2 back with Jerick McKinnon's balky knee. He should have some standalone flex value, and Breida is an every-week starter any time Tevin Coleman can't play.
- Arizona - Christian Kirk. His low-end WR3 ADP already assumes some Air Raid hiccups, but he has low-end WR1 potential if everything in the offense clicks.
- Indianapolis - n/a. Jacoby Brissett won't crush the fantasy prospects of the Colts skill players, but those players' prices need to drop before they can be considered a bargain..
- L.A. Chargers - n/a. The Chargers are mostly priced right. They don't have many bad picks at ADP but lack any noticeable values.
- Chicago - Allen Robinson enters his second year in the system and his second year removed from injury. He's a forgotten man despite being the No. 1 receiver in an offense that should throw more this year.
Shiny and Dull Objects
This tier has run-first wannabes, but at least Baltimore has speed and tall athletes all over the field should the need to deploy them. Seattle and Minnesota are likely more effective real-life offenses than fantasy ones.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 18 | BAL | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | A strong OL makes the ground-and-pound strategy feasible and provides a security blanket for a learning passer. |
| 19 | SEA | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 20.5 | Can Wilson turn sub-standard weapons into a legitimate offense? Will they be able to run as much as 2018? |
| 19 | TB | 3.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 20.5 | Bruce Arians' arrival injects excitment; weapons still near-elite despite losing a deep threat and slot man. |
| 21 | MIN | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 19.0 | Run-heavy to the point they were boring after last year's OC change. Thielen and Diggs excellent but limited opportunity. |
Favorites by ADP
- Baltimore - Lamar Jackson. The previous tier mentioned that QB5 can't generate profit. But a mid-QB2 who, at his ceiling, could break fantasy football and finish as a top-tier QB1? That's a bargain.
- Seattle - Tyler Lockett nearly broke fantasy football last season by being a WR2 on 71 targets. The efficiency will go down; but the volume will go up. It should bet out to a similar finish.
- Tampa Bay - Chris Godwin. Some run away from the hype; others run towards it.
- Minnesota - n/a. The wide receivers are attractive because of the narrow target distribution, but their ceilings are limited if the run-focused game plan comes to fruition.
Pick Your Spots
Each of these teams has a strength (i.e. a fantasy investment worth picking in the top-30 or so picks), but there are weaknesses throughout.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 22 | DET | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 | With Riddick's release Johnson is the only fantasy asset generating buzz. The OL stinks. |
| 24 | CIN | 2.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 17.0 | The Mixon-Bernard tandem is the best part of the unit; WR/TE dinged by Green's injury. |
| 23 | OAK | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 16.5 | Only Brown keeps the WR/TE from being a total disaster. Nothing super exciting here but nothing near-bottom. |
Favorites by ADP
- Detroit - n/a. Kenny Golladay and Kerryon Johnson offer a steady stream of volume. But this offense won't be exciting enough for significant profit at ADP.
- Cincinnati - Tyler Eifert is cheap enough that his injury history shouldn't be a concern. Embrace the upside; drop if necessary.
- Oakland - Darren Waller is being drafted even later than Eifert and has the same upside with fewer health issues. Honorable mention goes to Tyrell Williams as Antonio Brown is missing time with the first-string offense.
The Great Unknowns
New coaches, new coordinators, and new personnel all leave this tier as difficult to predict. It's the unknowns that keep these teams from ranking higher. Only the Giants feel predictable here, and only Saquon Barkley saves them from being in the bottom tier.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 24 | JAX | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 15.5 | Foles offers improvement over 2018 but who will help? Is Westbrook a WR1? |
| 26 | TEN | 2.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 15.0 | Yawn. Henry needs 280+ carries for a fantasy ROI. Not many others worth drafting. |
| 26 | DEN | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | Is Flacco better for the offense than Keenum? Sanders' health is important with the other WRs being young. |
| 28 | NYJ | 1.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14.0 | Bell is the lone above-average asset. But situation should result in a drop-off from his former production. |
| 29 | NYG | 1.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 13.0 | Poor Barkley. This team will be borderline un-watchable. When does the Jones era begin? |
Favorites by ADP
- Jacksonville - Dede Westbrook is a No. 1 wide receiver on a team with a mildly competent quarterback.
- Tennessee - Corey Davis is the same thing as Westbrook. Don't stock up your team with these guys, but at least one should profit.
- Denver - Emmanuel Sanders' health is a key offseason issue for Denver. If healthy, he's clearly the best option on the team. And Joe Flacco has a history of meshing with veteran receivers, even when there is no previous rapport.
- N.Y. Jets - n/a. No thanks.
- N.Y. Giants - n/a. It might be worth reconsidering the Jets.
Nothing to See Here
Fantasy players who don't roster any players from this tier on their teams probably won't be missing much -- and could win their leagues.
| Rank | Team | QB | RBs | WR/TE | OL | OC | Total | Comments |
| 31 | MIA | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | The offense where hyped players go to vanish. Stills in Best Ball only. |
| 30 | WAS | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 9.0 | The difference between these putrid NFC East teams is essentially that one has Barkley and one doesn't. |
| 32 | BUF | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 8.5 | The receivers got better. But it's still a disaster. Allen unlikely to repeat 2018 rush success. |
Favorites by ADP
- Miami - n/a. Don't invest in a team that appears to be tanking.
- Washington - Jordan Reed is the most talented player on his offense and is priced like he's on an offense with no other redeemable assets. He's worth a dart throw.
- Buffalo - John Brown is a Best Ball-only type. He's a talented player yet again stuck on a bad offense. But Josh Allen can throw the ball far, and Brown can run under it.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com