This column was born last year after the May 2018 announcement that the federal ban on sports gambling was being lifted. If your state allowed you to gamble and you followed everything in last year's article, you would have gone 5-0-1. While we're making absolutely zero promises at another undefeated season, we will stick with last year's format as it seemed to unearth some nice selections.
What's New?
Changes at head coach and the coordinator positions can change a team's culture and result in fast turnarounds. Let's look at the new coaches in the NFL in 2019. These are only coaches who replaced fired or retired coaches. For example, former New England defensive coordinator Brian Flores is now the head coach in Miami. That leaves a void in New England, but we didn't highlight their new coordinator, as it wasn't a decision driven by them.
| Team | Head Coach | Off. Coordinator | Def. Coordinator |
| Arizona Cardinals | Kliff Kingsbury | Kliff Kingsbury | Vance Joseph |
| Atlanta Falcons | -- | Dirk Koetter | -- |
| Baltimore Ravens | -- | Greg Roman | -- |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Zac Taylor | Brian Callahan | Lou Anarumo |
| Cleveland Browns | Freddie Kitchens | Todd Monken | Steve Wilks |
| Dallas Cowboys | -- | Kellen Moore | -- |
| Denver Broncos | Vic Fangio | Rich Scangarello | Ed Donatell |
| Detroit Lions | -- | Darrell Bevell | -- |
| Green Bay Packers | Matt LaFleur | Nathaniel Hackett | |
| Houston Texans | -- | Tim Kelly | -- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -- | John DeFilippo | -- |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -- | -- | Steve Spagnuolo |
| Miami Dolphins | Brian Flores | Chad O'Shea | Patrick Graham |
| New York Jets | Adam Gase | Dowell Loggains | Gregg Williams |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Bruce Arians | Byron Leftwich | Todd Bowles |
| Washington Redskins | -- | Kevin O'Connell | -- |
Kingsbury's hire in Arizona sticks out as a potential culture-changer. The Cardinals will go from a bland, vanilla, defensive-minded team to a young, fresh, innovative squad in 2019. Similarly, Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles should improve both sides of the ball in Tampa Bay.
Not all coaching changes should be seen as positives, though. For instance, a coach known for offense whose offenses have ranked 25th, 26th, and 31st over the last few seasons might not swing the fortunes of a franchise - especially when said coach's former employees had mostly bad things to say about him on his way out.
From 2016 to 2018, Adam Gase's Dolphins were outscored by over 5 points per game, 4th-worst in the NFL and ahead of only the Browns, Jets, and 49ers.
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) January 10, 2019
The Jets will show up positively in some other sections later, but Adam Gase is hard to trust.
Close Game Regression?
The following charts look at records in games decided by seven points or fewer. You know the "game of inches" cliche; the difference between a win and a loss can be narrow.
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 6 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 5 | 1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 5 | 1 |
| Washington Redskins | 4 | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | 8 | 4 |
Dallas sticks out here simply due to having two more close-game wins than any other team. And the L.A Chargers are also notable after further investigation of their close games. Here are some observations from that duo and one other team.
Dallas
Of Dallas' eight close wins, four were against playoff teams. Among the "bad" close-game wins were three divisional games, one of which was a Week 17 contest in which Dallas rested players. That Week 17 game and the narrow road win at rival Washington aren't indicators of a lucky team, nor is a three-point win on the road against a talented Atlanta team. That leaves a two-point home win vs. Detroit and a seven-point home win vs. the Giants as the only head-scratchers.
Dallas doesn't stick out as a team due for regression simply based on its close-game results. In fact, two of the eight wins were at Philadelphia and home vs. New Orleans (a game in which Dallas held the Saints to only 10 points).
L.A. Chargers
The Chargers won five close games, and three of those were home vs. San Francisco (by two), home vs. Tennessee (by one), and home vs. a Jeff Driskel-led Cincinnati team (by five). Their one loss in a close game was at home against a pedestrian Denver team.
Close wins against inferior teams are an indicator of under-achievement. In fact, the Chargers ranked tied for third in the NFL in wins but only seventh in point differential.
Washington
More than half of Washington's seven wins were by a touchdown or less. Among the notable close wins are vs. Carolina, at N.Y. Giants, and at Jacksonville. The offense looks like it will be putrid, and the defense is so-so.
On the other side of things, last year, we saw two good teams with bad close-game records. That made it easy to like their overs. This year, though, the positive regression candidates were all bad teams in 2018. At least one could be a surprise contender in 2019.
| Team | Wins | Losses |
| Carolina Panthers | 2 | 7 |
| New York Jets | 1 | 5 |
| Detroit Lions | 1 | 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2 | 6 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2 | 5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 6 |
Carolina
The Panthers were on the other side of this section in last year's column as a team who went 7-1 in close games in 2017. Regression hit hard, as that record was almost the opposite in 2018. Two of Carolina's close losses were against playoff teams (vs. Seattle and vs. New Orleans, both lost by only a field goal). And the other five were road games. Perhaps 2019 is the year that Carolina ends up at or near .500 in these games, making them a candidate to exceed expectations.
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers kept games close against Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Atlanta (twice), and Dallas. Between that and their coaching changes, an uptick in wins is well within the realm of possibility.
A New Way to Look at Strength of Schedule
Taking the mantra of "Vegas Knows Best" to a new level, let's look at each team's strength of schedule by adding up the Vegas over/unders for each team's 2019 opponents.
Easiest Vegas SOS
| Team | Opponent Total | Division Total | Team Total |
| New England Patriots | 120 | 29.5 | 11 |
| New York Jets | 123 | 29.5 | 7 |
| Buffalo Bills | 124 | 29.5 | 7 |
| Cleveland Browns | 124 | 32.5 | 9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 125 | 31.5 | 10 |
Hardest Vegas SOS
| Team | Opponent Total | Division Total | Team Total |
| Houston Texans | 137.0 | 34.0 | 8.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 136.5 | 33.0 | 7.0 |
| Oakland Raiders | 135.5 | 33.0 | 6.0 |
| Chicago Bears | 135.5 | 34.5 | 9.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 134.5 | 34.0 | 8.0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 134.5 | 33.5 | 9.0 |
| Carolina Panthers | 134.5 | 33.5 | 7.5 |
Commentary
- Once again, the AFC East has the lowest cumulative total despite New England's projected total of 11. The Patriots have the lowest cumulative total of projected opponent wins by a wide margin.
- The two divisions with the highest cumulative win totals among their member teams are the NFC North (34.5 combined wins) and the AFC South (34).
- The two divisions with the lowest cumulative win totals among their member teams are the AFC East (29.5) and the NFC East (31.5).
Now that we've covered some of the ways to evaluate certain teams' 2019 prospects, let's take a look at some of the over/under bets I like the most.
Bullish
Below are three teams whose totals look like they could go OVER the Vegas projected line.
Tampa Bay OVER 6.5 (-105)
- Arians and Bowles should be worth a win or two by themselves compared to last year's coaching staff.
- Their record in close games was poor last year, which could mean some positive regression is coming.
- The best team in their division is aging and coming off a dramatic bad beat in the NFC Championship Game.
Dallas OVER 9 (+105)
- Kellen Moore and a full season of Amari Cooper should make the offense better.
- The defense had plenty of youth that should help maintain or build upon its fantastic 2018.
- In the division, Washington and New York offer at least 3.5 wins as a floor.
Indianapolis OVER 9.5 (-160)
- Above average-to-great at quarterback and head coach, they could challenge for the #1 seed in the AFC.
- The division has two mediocre teams in Tennessee and Jacksonville.
- They acquired pass-rusher Justin Houston and receiver Devin Funchess, both of whom should contribute.
Honorable Mention: Arizona OVER 5 (-125). Kingsbury and Kyler Murray should inject optimism and a high-octane offense. In the division, L.A. and Seattle have questions marks around duplicating last year's successes.
Bearish
Below are three teams whose totals look like they could go UNDER the Vegas projected line.
Miami UNDER 4.5 (+125)
- Miami appears to be actively tanking. Even if they aren't, their talent level has a 3-13 ceiling.
- Flores is a recognizable name at head coach, but former New England coaches haven't performed well.
L.A. Chargers UNDER 9.5 (+120)
- The division is going to be good; Kansas City is a Super Bowl contender, and Denver should be improved.
- Philip Rivers is aging, and the recent Melvin Gordon holdout drama could have a negative impact.
- The team overachieved in close games last year; they were known for the opposite in years prior.
Washington UNDER 6.5 (-130)
- Regardless of who they use at quarterback, they'll be among the league's least inspiring situations.
- Philadelphia should improve, and Dallas still projects to be a successful team.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com
