Eliminator Pool: Week 14

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

The staff really took it on the chin in Week 13, with upsets of both Carolina and the Jets. The Panthers were heavily favored at home against Washington, but rookie starter Dwayne Haskins had other ideas. Cincinnati went back to the future with Andy Dalton at quarterback at home against New York, as the Bengals wanted to secure that first win of 2019. Both upsets cost the staff dearly, as eight staffers were on Carolina and two others were on the Jets. Ten losses is significant, even in December, and these two games are likely to influence another "lessons learned" rule for 2020 and beyond. Tentatively I am phrasing this new rule for Survivor in the future is to be wary of any significant change for a team, such as a new starting quarterback but also a new head coach or offensive (or defensive) coordinator. That impact was noted here in Week 13 with not just Washington and Cincinnati, but also how Denver upset the Chargers behind Drew Lock as the new starter for the Broncos. Getting back to the staff and the results, only one staffer - Sean Settle - has just one blemish on his record through 13 games. Six staffers sit at 11-2 while six more are at 10-3, which almost makes the entire pool up for grabs. Four games remain and they get exponentially harder to select. December is here, so let's take a look at the Week 14 picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 14 looks like two main choices - Green Bay at home against Washington or Minnesota hosting the Lions. Both NFC North teams are big favorites and they need every win that they can get given the five strong NFC teams pushing for postseason seeding. Houston (vs. Denver), Cleveland (vs. Cincinnati) and Philadelphia (hosting the Giants on Monday) are all solid contrarian picks as all three teams have playoff hopes, with the Texans in the best spot for a win as they try to get a bye in the AFC playoff picture. All five of these teams could be tougher choices due to earlier usage this season, which is always an issue in December. Advice for planning the final four weeks are in the commentary below, so be sure to check that analysis out.

Thursday Morning Update: As expected, Green Bay is the top choice for the staff with six picks, while Minnesota (5) and Houston (4) are close behind. This matches pretty well with the availability of these three teams to be chosen, as both the Packers (10 prior selections) and Vikings (11) were used quite a lot already this year. Houston was used only three times by the group prior to this week, so they made for a solid contrarian pick (or if you have used both Green Bay and Minnesota already, which happens to be the case for all four of the staffers who chose the Texans). As noted many times before, December gets very difficult. Two unique picks round out Week 14 selections as Devin Knotts went with the Eagles at home against the Giants, while Justin Howe chose the Steelers on a road trip to Arizona. Both Devin and Justin have used all three of the other main choices (Green Bay, Minnesota and Houston), so there is a good hint as to a direction to go if you are in a similar situation this week.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Before I start to dig into Week 14, I wanted to share some thoughts for December and to try and help anyone who is still alive and sweating out their final weeks of a Survivor contest. Here are the games, week by week, for the rest of the season where teams are expected to be favored by at least six points (with one exception that I will explain in a moment):

Week 14 (5 games):

• Cleveland (-8.5) vs. Cincinnati
• Houston (-9) vs. Denver
• Minnesota (-15) vs. Detroit
• Green Bay (-13.5) vs. Washington
• (Monday) Philadelphia (-8.5) vs. NY Giants

Week 15 (5 games):

• (Thursday) Baltimore (-15) vs. NY Jets
• Kansas City (-10) vs. Denver
• New England (-11) at Cincinnati
• San Francisco (-11.5) vs. Atlanta
• (Monday) New Orleans (-8.5) vs Indianapolis

Week 16 (3+ games):

• (Saturday) New England (-6) vs. Buffalo
• Baltimore (-7.5) at Cleveland
• *Indianapolis (-5.5) vs. Carolina
• *Denver (-5.5) vs. Detroit
• Seattle (-13.5) vs. Arizona

*Added games with 5.5-point expected favorites

Week 17 (9 games):

• Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Chicago
• Kansas City (-9.5) vs. LA Chargers
• New England (-15) vs. Miami
• New Orleans (-7) at Carolina
• Buffalo (-9) vs. NY Jets
• Philadelphia (-6) at NY Giants
• Baltimore (-11.5) vs. Pittsburgh
• Dallas (-11.5) vs. Washington
• LA Rams (-12) vs. Arizona

Several comments are necessary for the above list. First, while 24 games (out of 64) are listed, it is not that great of a list. Week 16 looks like a nightmare, as there are only three teams with expectations of being a 6+ point favorite, and all three teams (New England, Baltimore and Seattle) have probably been used. That is why I added two closer calls with the Colts (hosting the Panthers) and Denver (hosting Detroit). Neither are fantastic picks, but beggars can't be choosers this late in the year. Lastly, Week 17 does look plentiful, but with 16 teams scratched off of your list and several other teams not playing for anything at all in the season finale, planning for that last week (if you think you need it) will require careful consideration.

Initially when I planned the remainder of the season, I had the following final-four week plan:

• Week 14: Green Bay (vs. Washington)
• Week 15: Kansas City (vs. Denver)
• Week 16: New Orleans (at Tennessee)
• Week 17: Houston (vs. Tennessee)

The above list looks very tough, as I am fading Tennessee twice in the last two weeks, and I am hoping that both the Saints and the Texans have playoff implications on the line for those two final weeks. That still looks likely, but Houston needs another loss (potentially this week) for New England for the Texans to have a legitimate shot at a bye. That could throw a major wrench in the above plan if New England beats Kansas City this week, so that is one game to keep an eye on - and another reason to make sure to plan your final four weeks and understand if any of the teams you are hoping to use those last two weeks will have anything to play for as the season wraps up.

Getting back to Week 14, Green Bay looks like the clear choice. Washington is playing better of late with Dwayne Haskins looking like their quarterback of the future, but Lambeau in December is a high hurdle to clear. The Packers are fighting for the NFC North and a bye week with four other strong NFC teams, so Green Bay needs to lock up this win before three divisional games close out their regular season. Minnesota (if still available) is a good rebound game for the Vikings (at home against Detroit) as Minnesota needs to get a win after a tough loss Monday in Seattle. Cleveland, Houston, and Philadelphia are all solid choices as contrarian picks, especially if there is no plan to use them the rest of the year.

The Pick: Green Bay Packers

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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