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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

In a word, "Yeouch". Or maybe it should be "Yuck"? Either way, Week 10 did not go as planned - at all. Both the Saints and the Colts were upset last week, a remarkable result given that both teams were double-digit favorites. Just to show how odd it was that not just one but both results happened, the odds of both occurring were somewhere in the 50-1 to 60-1 range (meaning a $100 bet on both Miami and Atlanta to win would have netted you over $5,000). Those are long odds, and rightly so. Regardless, losses are losses, and the group suffered as a result with 12 losses from both New Orleans and Indianapolis, including all of our four remaining undefeated staff members. Even the five picks that went in another direction were not all perfect, as Jason Wood lost with his pick of the Chiefs and Matt Bitonti lost with the Giants. Only three picks were correct - one for Tampa Bay (Devin Knotts) and two with the Packers (Will Grant and Andy Hicks). If ever there was a week to show just how difficult it is to go undefeated all season, Week 10 was Exhibit A. The only thing left to do is to try and put it behind us and move on to Week 11.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

After the abysmal Week 10 results, the expectations are reasonably high that the staff will be targeting the safest picks possible for Week 11. Three teams are double-digit favorites in Week 11, and of them (San Francisco) has been used quite a bit already. Expect a lot of Minnesota (hosting Denver) and Oakland (hosting the Bengals) as the top picks for the coming week. Several options are out there to go against the grain with a Carolina (hosting Atlanta) or the Rams (hosting the Bears), but it does not look like a good week to go too far outside of the likely top two selections.

Thursday Morning Update: The picks are all in, and they are all on the two expected teams - Oakland (12) and Minnesota (5). Both the Raiders and Vikings are big favorites at home and are in spots where they need to get a win to increase their playoff chances. It could be wise to dig deeper into both teams' respective schedules for the rest of the year to decide which of the two is the better option for Week 11 (as I will discuss below), but after such an unnerving Week 10, the staff looks to be in a good spot to secure their third perfect week for the season.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Three weeks ago I did a deeper dive with the analysis and also shared my near-term plan for the next four weeks:

Near-term plan = Pittsburgh (vs. Miami), San Francisco (at Arizona), Indianapolis (vs. Miami) and Minnesota (vs. Denver) in Weeks 8-11.

The near-term plan played out well for the first two weeks, and then the brick wall came last week with the Colts stumbling at home against Miami. Time to turn the page on that and focus on this week, as two top choices are out there - Oakland (at home against Cincinnati) and Minnesota (hosting Denver). The Raiders are in the playoff hunt (who would have expected that?) and are in a good spot to take care of business against the 0-9 Bengals, but the 7-3 Vikings are also poised for a win against the Broncos. Both opposing teams are using backup quarterbacks and are favored by 10+ points, so it comes down to the remaining schedule for both as to which is the best option.

Minnesota's remaining schedule has just two games where they are likely to be favored by a touchdown or more - Week 14 (hosting Detroit) and Week 17 (home against Chicago). Both are divisional matchups, but the Lions game looks like the best option left on the board. Week 14 also happens to be the same week that Green Bay hosts Washington (hint, hint) so maybe this is the best time to use the Vikings, as who knows what the playoff implications will be for the season finale.

Oakland's remaining schedule is also not that great, so taking the Raiders in Week 11 is a strong option as well. It is possible that Oakland will need to win their season finale (at Denver) to get into the postseason, but that will be a tough game to count on and project as a good choice this far away. Taking Oakland here seems like the top choice for Week 11, but game theory could say that taking the Vikings - the likely second-most popular pick this week - may help you win a Survivor contest if the Raiders somehow stumble against Cincinnati. All things considered, both teams are solid picks, and if you have more than one team left, a 50-50 split is your best plan.

The Pick: Minnesota Vikings

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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