Eliminator Pool: Week 9

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Well, it took six weeks to get the first perfect week for the staff, and now they are crushing it with two perfect performances in a row. It took all the way until Monday Night Football to confirm that result, and with the Steelers falling behind 14-0 to Miami in the first quarter, it was far from a lock. Pittsburgh's rally saved the week for several staffers and once again everyone added a win to their records after eight weeks. Four staffers still sit atop the standings with a perfect 8-0 record so far: Justin Howe, Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, and Sean Settle, but there remains a ton of weeks to navigate. Nearly half of the staff (8 of 17) enters Week 9 with one loss, and five more have two or three. It only gets tricker as the weather starts to turn colder, so as the staff chases more wins and that next perfect week. Can they make it three in a row? Let's start to see how that plays out by looking at the staff's Week 9 picks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

After two perfect weeks for the staff, Week 9 looks like a very difficult one. Only four teams are favored by 6 or more this week, and several of those teams have already been used. San Francisco is one of those four teams and the biggest favorite on the slate (-10) despite being on the road against the divisional rival Arizona Cardinals. Even with those two warning signs and on a short week, six of the staff went with the 49ers to extend their perfect season come Thursday night. The other three teams favored by six or more include Buffalo (-9.5, hosting Washington), Seattle (-6.5, home against Tampa Bay) and Dallas (-7.5, at the Giants on Monday), and the staff has used many of the chances for all of these teams prior to this week. Buffalo and Dallas were consumed mostly against Miami (and for good reason) by the staff, and three of the four staff members that still had the chance to use the Bills decided to go with them here in Week 9 as the second-most popular pick. Seattle and Green Bay (-3.5, at the Chargers) were the only other teams chosen more than once this week. Four unique picks rounded out the selections for this weekend as one of our 8-0 leaders (Sean Settle) decided to go with Carolina at home against Tennessee. Justin Howe is also having a perfect season so far, and he went with the Eagles at home against the Bears. Devin Knotts ventured out on his own with Cleveland on the road in Denver, which sounds a bit risky until you dig deeper and see that Denver has a first-time starting quarterback going this week in Brandon Allen. Will Grant rounds out the picks as he took the Colts at home against Pittsburgh on a short week for the injury-plagued Steelers. With eight different picks (the most this season so far), the odds are against a third perfect week in a row for the group, and the standings could really shuffle around by Monday.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Last week I did a deeper dive with the analysis and also shared my near-term plan for the next four weeks:

Near-term plan = Pittsburgh (vs. Miami), San Francisco (at Arizona), Indianapolis (vs. Miami) and Minnesota (vs. Denver) in Weeks 8-11.

Week 8 was successful with the Steelers (despite the Monday night scare), and the 49ers are the biggest favorite in Week 9. Taking San Francisco does break two survivor rules (do not take a road team and avoid divisional games), but taking an 8-0 team that scored 50+ points last week feels pretty good despite a road game on a short week. San Francisco may not look as dominant as they have with short rest but they should have plenty left in the tank to take care of business against the Cardinals. I have already used the other big favorites (Seattle, Dallas and Buffalo) so this looks like a good spot to take a hot team despite breaking a few rules of thumb.

The Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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