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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Finally! The staff went all in on both the Bills and 49ers last week, and by the time the late games kicked off on Sunday afternoon the entire staff had completed their mission with the first perfect week for the season. Things of course get harder as the season wears on (and as fewer clear choices remain), but congratulations go out to the group. Four staffers still sit atop the standinga with a perfect 7-0 record so far: Justin Howe, Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, and Sean Settle, but there remains a ton of weeks to navigate. Nearly half of the staff (8 of 17) enters Week 8 with one loss, and five more have two or three. It only gets tricker as the weather starts to turn colder, so as the staff chases more wins and that next perfect week, let's see how the Week 8 picks look.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 8 is one of the more interesting weeks of the season to date, as there are three teams favored by more than a touchdown that are likely available to most Survivor players even after seven weeks are in the books. Minnesota starts the week at home against the woeful Washington Redskins, and the home team is favored by over two touchdowns. New Orleans hosts a divisional team on Sunday, but Atlanta appears to have called it a season. The Saints are favored by 9.5 or 10 points, joining the Steelers as the third team to investigate this week. Pittsburgh comes off of their bye week and hosts the Dolphins on Monday, and the Steelers are favored by 14-15 points. Several other teams are favored by a big number as well, but both the Rams (vs. Cincinnati in London, -13) and Patriots (vs. Cleveland, -12.5 to -13) could have been selected already. If ever there was a week to look ahead, Week 8 is it. It can be expected that New Orleans, Minnesota and Pittsburgh will be the top three choices for Week 8, but are any of these teams worth saving for later? The Vikings has at least three more favorable matchups the rest of the year, including a home game against Denver in Week 11. New Orleans has plenty of good weeks to go, although most will be against divisional teams. The Steelers are the likely top pick on the week as they are well rested and facing Miami at home, but Pittsburgh's schedule (and lackluster 2-4 record) makes them a sketchy choice after this week. Let's see how the picks look when they all roll in on Thursday morning.

Thursday morning update: The picks are in, and they are all over the place as expected. Five different teams are represented across 17 staff picks, led by three of the teams mentioned earlier. The Vikings tied the Steelers in total picks with six each across the group. The Rams are the only other team picked more than once this week, as three staffers expect Los Angeles to complete the trip to London with a win over the Bengals. Andy Hicks went out on his own with the Saints pick, but it is a solid choice as noted above but there could be problems for Andy later in finding better opportunities to use some of the other options. One last unique pick rounds out the group as Jason Wood decided to go with Jacksonville at home (-5.5) against the Jets. The Jaguars are -250 on the Money Line, which implies a 71% chance of winning, so that is also a solid pick this week. So many choices, but are any of these games potential trip-ups along the path to survival? Let's see how a very interesting week plays out after Monday.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 8, as I mentioned above, offers up a ton of options. Should I go with Pittsburgh, Minnesota or New Orleans? The Vikings get Denver in Week 11 at home, while the Saints have a much easier second half schedule (plus Drew Brees will be back). Pittsburgh is 2-4, and there are not many other chances the rest of the season where a team with a losing record is projected to win by 10 or more points. This contest goes the distance to Week 17, and looking at the NFL standings there are 14 teams with four or more wins - so stealing a week or two is a key part of it. I already locked one of those steals up with the Eagles (3-4), but I need two more. My new plan for the rest of the year involves using all of these 14 teams and the 3-3 Bears the rest of the way, but I still need one last team. Using Pittsburgh (2-5) this week will give me just enough planning to get through Week 17.

The Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

Now for some bonus commentary.....

The above comment had me thinking - how long do these contests typically last? I did some research and found that, as expected, most contests do go well into December. The average attrition rate is 70-75% each week (based on 2010-2018 data), but that's a simplified way to look at it. Clearly picking a winner in Week 1 is easier than Week 16, if only because 15 teams are no longer available as choices. Figure 1 below shows the projected percentage of teams that are typically left per given NFL week:

Figure 1 - Projected Percent Teams Left in Survivor Contests

Figure 1 shows a very rough estimate of how many teams should be left in a typical NFL season's Survivor contest, but of course this may vary greatly. Most contests seem to go the full length of a season, so the best way to look at how long it may take to win the contest is this:

1. Count the number of teams left in your contest.
2. Multiply that number by 70%, over and over, until the result is under 1.5.
3. Count the number of times you multiplied the original number of teams left.

The result of Step 3 is the number of weeks your contest is projected to run until only one team (hopefully yours) is left and declared the winner.

As a simple rule of thumb right now, just take 5% of the number of teams left. That number reflects how many teams would be left after NFL Week 15 (70-75% multiplied eight times is roughly 5%). So, if your contest has 20 or fewer teams remaining, expect the contest to end around Week 15. If you have 30-50, it could be "chop time" after Week 15 (two players left that agree to split the prize). Over 50 and you can expect to go to the end of the season, so plan accordingly.

As for my end of year plan, as stated before I am going to use all 14 teams that have four or more wins, but you need three extra. Philadelphia helped me in Week 5, and now I really regret not using the Chargers in Miami in Week 4 instead of the Rams (thanks so much). Throwing in Pittsburgh and the Bears in favorable matchups gives a good idea of how to plan the rest of the way. Targeting these teams at home against a weak, non-divisional team is ideal, but there will be a few tougher spots to navigate. I'll share my plan and picks as we work our way through the rest of the season, but I can tell you that all of the planned picks project to be in good spots (favorites by at least 6 points, 70% or higher likelihood of winning), especially through Week 16. I will share the plan for the next 3-4 weeks and then I'll leave it to you (and Twitter) to guess the rest of the plan:

Near-term plan = Pittsburgh (vs. Miami), San Francisco (at Arizona), Indianapolis (vs. Miami) and Minnesota (vs. Denver) in Weeks 8-11.

That leaves Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay, Houston, Kansas City and New Orleans for me the rest of the way. If you can guess the correct order, share it with me on twitter. Finding the good spots for each should not be too hard, but it is worth it to try and see the path(s) for yourself, as you may have used different teams to date.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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