Eliminator Pool: Week 6

Photo: Imagn Images

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

NFL Week 5 looked like a good week for the staff as only one loss was on the board (Alex Miglio, Chargers) prior to Sunday Night Football - but all that changed with the Colts' upset of the Chiefs. Five staffers were on Kansas City as their Week 5 Survivor Pick, so now the group has 15 total losses (and 70 wins). There are still five members of the staff group that are a perfect 5-0 so far: Jason Wood, Justin Howe, Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley and Sean Settle, but there remains a ton of weeks to navigate. Most of the staff (9 of 17) enters Week 6 with one loss, and three are at 3-2 on the season. It only gets tricker as the weather starts to turn colder, so as the staff chases more wins and the elusive perfect week, let's see how the Week 6 picks look.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 6 looks like the week where there are two categories of Survivor team owners - those who saved the Patriots, and those who did not. New England is the biggest favorite by far (expected to beat the Giants at home on Thursday by more than two touchdowns). If you are one of the lucky owners who still has New England available, take the Patriots and run, because it gets a lot harder after taking New England off the board. Only the Patriots and Baltimore (-11.5, hosting Cincinnati) are big home favorites in Week 6, with Dallas (-8.5, at the Jets) as the top road option. These three clubs should be the best bets for a week that sees four teams on a bye for the first time this season. The issues are that the Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots were also big favorites earlier this year and many owners may have already used all three teams. That summarizes the status for most of the 17 sets of picks by the Footballguys' staff in this contest for 2019, as Week 6 is the week where 11 of 17 staffers chose Baltimore (6 of 17), New England (4) or Dallas (1), and for all but Matt Bitonti, it completed the trifecta (New England - Dallas - Baltimore) as 10 staffers have now used all three of these teams already in the first six weeks. It is actually far more interesting to focus on the staff members that had to go in a different direction or those who are saving one of these three big favorites for later this season. Matt Bitonti had the unique ability to chose either Dallas or New England this week and decided to save the Cowboys, while three other staffers decided not to use New England for alternative choices on a week where the Patriots should be the top choice in most Survivor pools. That element of game theory could pay off for both Andrew Garda and Devin Knotts, as both went with Green Bay (hosting Detroit on Monday Night Football), while Aaron Rudnicki was one of two team owners (Clayton Gray) that chose to take the Los Angeles Chargers against Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. One of our 5-0 owners, Jason Wood, had already used the three big favorites, so he decided to go out on his own with a pick of the Los Angeles Rams at home against San Francisco in what could be a very tough matchup. Finally, Alex Miglio zagged away from Dallas and went with a unique choice of the Saints on the road in Jacksonville to pull out a victory. Week 6 has the most variety of picks (seven different teams) so far this year, which will make for an interesting standings review come Tuesday morning.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 5 was back on track with the Eagles destroying the Jets, but for me, Week 6 just highlights why planning can sometimes pay off. New England has been a big favorite all season long, and now they get a Giants team without Saquon Barkley on a short week in Foxboro. The Patriots are favored by 17 and that might be covered by halftime by New England. Even if I had 4-5 entries alive, this still might be a week to go heavy on New England at 75-80% of all of your entries. It is always hard to say to go "all in" if you have multiple teams, but New England is about as close to a lock as you will find all season long. If forced to look elsewhere, both Baltimore and Dallas look like solid alternatives, but after those three clubs, it gets very dicey. The Chargers make the most sense after those three (at home against a probable third-string quarterback in Pittsburgh), but hopefully one of the top three picks remain for your choice for Week 6.

The Pick: New England Patriots

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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