Eliminator Pool: Week 4

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

NFL Week 3 was very quiet, as expected, with the staff heavily invested in Dallas (14 of 17 picks). New England was also a dominant winner, but only Alex Miglio went in that direction. San Francisco's move to 3-0 helped Matt Bitonti do the same, but Will Grant's independent pick of Seattle cost him with the Seahawks' surprising home loss against New Orleans. That makes the third week in a row where the staff was 16-1 for the third week to start the 2019 season. As the staff chases more wins and the elusive perfect week, let's see how the Week 4 picks look.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Similar to Week 3, Week 4 comes down to two main decisions - Los Angeles or Los Angeles, or should I say, the Chargers or the Rams. Most of the staff (10 of 17) decided to take a road team (the Los Angeles Chargers) on the road this week, which may break one of the cardinal rules of Survivor, but when you are facing the Miami Dolphins it is quite understandable. The Chargers are favored by more than two touchdowns (-16.5, -1000 or more on the Money Line) against the second-class Dolphins, but they are not a complete lock despite an implied win probability over 90%. The Chargers have lost two games in a row and were a coin flip in Week 1 away from being 0-3, and Miami showed some signs of life in the first half last week against Dallas. The other Los Angeles team is also favored this week as the Rams (-9.5 to -10 points, -450 to -500 on the Money Line) host Tampa Bay in Week 4, and in this instance, the Rams do check all the boxes as a home favorite by more than a touchdown in a non-divisional contest. Fading the Chargers with the Rams has good validity this week and they are the second-most favorite pick for the staff with five selections. Only two staffers decided to go out on their own this week as Justin Howe took Seattle (-4.5 points, -250 Money Line), breaking two rules by taking a road team against a divisional foe in Arizona. Justin already used the Chargers, so it likely came down to saving the Rams versus using Seattle, but this is not a lock of a spot for the Seahawks. The last one-off selection belongs to Clayton Gray, who decided to fade the chalky Los Angeles selections by going with Indianapolis (-6.5, -300 Money Line) as the Colts host the traveling Oakland Raiders this week. Oakland sits at 1-2 after dropping two games to tough opponents (Kansas City and Minnesota), but their one victory is not over a quality opponent (Denver) either - so it is tough to say how good or bad the Raiders are after three contests. Oakland is in the early part of a brutal 48-day stretch where they will not have a single home game, and the Raiders head directly to London to face the Bears this week. The Raiders will be amped up to try and get to 2-2 before facing a vengeful Khalil Mack in London before their bye week. Even on a week with two dominant favorites, four different NFL teams are on the list, so there could be some separation coming at the top of the standings after Week 4.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 3 went well with the Dallas pick, as expected - and this week will be chalky as well. I think that I have learned my lesson in trying too hard to map out the entire season too much, and sometimes it is better to just take one of the top two picks each week. The Rams may have a slightly lower win probability (85%) than the Chargers (90%), but the Rams are the better pick for several reasons. Looking at both teams going forward, the questions that beg for an answer are not only are the Chargers and Rams safe picks, but there are there better spots to use either Los Angeles team later in the year? Jared Goff's squad has several (projected) good spots throughout the season, but taking them while they are hot and at home feels a bit safer than taking the Chargers on the road after losing two weeks in a row (and needing overtime to win in Week 1). Miami is still the worst team in football, but fading the Chargers with a contrarian pick and hoping for Miami to win at home against Los Angeles flying cross-country to play an early kickoff is good game theory. The Chargers could also get better and be a reasonable option in Week 5 (vs. Denver at home) and if Melvin Gordon is returning, they could be getting better as the season progresses. Saving the Chargers for a tricky week next week, so I am taking a big favorite at home against a non-divisional team playing in their same conference, as that checks all the right boxes for me. In really big pools or if you have several entries, I would take the Rams about 50-70% of the time with the Chargers covering the other 30-50% of my picks.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Will Grant: Sometimes it's better to just follow the crowd. With Dallas and New England being two of the biggest favorites that we've had this season, I decided to fade them both and go with Seattle at home against the Saints who didn't have Drew Brees. Seemed like an easy win, and if Dallas or New England lost, I'd be fine. Nope. Didn't happen. Sometimes it's better to just follow the trend. Here's hoping the Rams don't let me down.

The Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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