Eliminator Pool: Week 2

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Dave attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys once again is presenting a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Well, the Footballguys' staff pretty much made that look easy. All but one of the staff (sorry Mark) earned Week 1 victories as the Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, and Seahawks all took care of business. Some of the games were closer than expected as Philadelphia trailed Washington at halftime and Seattle was in a tight battle with the Bengals, but both teams emerged victorious. The Chargers also were in a closer battle than expected with a post-Luck Indianapolis team, but Austin Ekeler pushed Los Angeles over the goal line in overtime. The most impressive team of the week was certainly Baltimore, who scored a franchise-record 59 points and still could have scored more (they took a knee late near the Dolphins' end zone), but Miami also looked extremely bad and could be the team to pick against the rest of the season. Sadly, Cleveland's home loss (by a large margin) to the Tennessee Titans tripped up Mark Wimer, but this is a marathon of a contest, not a sprint. On to Week 2!

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week.

DISCUSSION

The staff are clearly on two teams for Week 2, as both the Ravens (8 of 17 picks) and the Patriots (7 of 17) dominated the selections for this weekend. Baltimore is coming off of a 59-10 drubbing of the Dolphins last Sunday in Miami, and now they get their home opener against the Arizona Cardinals (at 1PM Eastern, no less). New England is on the road this week, but they get to visit those same Dolphins that gave up 59 points in Week 1 to the Ravens. Even if Antonio Brown is not playing on Sunday, Tom Brady and company should have no concerns in getting their second win in as many weeks to start the 2019 campaign. The choices this week for Survivor comes down to whether you want to save the Ravens or Patriots for later in the season, or possibly even save both for later in the year and go completely contrarian for Week 2. Two of the staff decided on the total contrarian path with selections of Carolina by Andrew Garda and Devin Knotts going with the Texans at home against Jacksonville. Both the Panthers (-6.5) and Texans (-8.5) are big favorites at home, and the Panthers get the added bonus of a home game on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Both games feature divisional matchups (as does Miami vs. New England), which can be problematic, but all four teams look like solid Week 2 picks. Based on CBS Sports' overall selection rate, nearly everyone expects these four teams to win their respective contests this week.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 1 went right according to plan as Seattle won (even though it was a closer call than it probably should have been), and getting the Seahawks out of the way early could be a wise move. Seattle looked good - but just good enough at home against the Bengals? Seattle could trip a few people up in Survivor pools soon, so good to have them in the win column already. Those who went with the Ravens in Week 1 certainly rested easy, but they could also be the same teams to go for New England this week. The Patriots should cruise in Miami as they are favored by three scores, but the question is this: Is this the right time to use New England, or is there a better alternative? I am sticking with my preseason plan to wait to use the Patriots, and the plan said to use Baltimore in Week 2. The Ravens host an Arizona team that did not look good despite a tie against Detroit at home in Week 1, and now the Cardinals are down their starting right tackle (Marcus Gilbert), which will further improve Baltimore's chances. The Ravens should come out hot in their home opener, as the fans welcome Baltimore back home after a dominant Week 1 road win in Miami. Arizona has a weakened offensive line (that was not great anyway) and is a 14-point underdog, which implies only a 5% chance for a Cardinals victory. Baltimore is the clear pick this week if you are saving New England for later in the season.

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Jeff Haseley: After sneaking by with Seattle in Week 1, my pick this week is either New England, Baltimore, or Houston. I would rather save New England for another date and time, so that leaves Baltimore or Houston. Looking at Baltimore's schedule, the next best week for them is Week 6 vs CIN, Week 13 vs SF, or Week 15 vs NYJ. I'm not too keen on any of those, so I'll take the hot Ravens now against a Cardinals team who will need to solve a tough Ravens defense, on the road. Plus, if Lamar Jackson happens to get injured this year, I'd rather use him (and the Ravens) before it happens. Ravens -13.5 is my pick this week.

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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