Against The Spread Pool: Week 6

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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Week 5 of the NFL season was a week where the staff had a good result overall, as the group went 8-5 on picks where 11 of the 19 staffers or more were in agreement, so wins by New England (17 correct), New Orleans (13), Arizona (13), Minnesota (12), Houston (12), Buffalo (11), Pittsburgh (11) and Philadelphia (11) significantly outpaced incorrect calls on the Chargers (14), Chiefs (14), Browns (13), Bears (12) and Jaguars (12). Sean Settle led the way for Week 5 with a 10-5 record, topping six staffers that finished the week with nine wins. The staff won nearly 52% of their Week 5 picks (148-137, 51.9%), boosting the overall staff record to nearly 50% (728-754, 49.1%). Is the staff getting a better feel for the league with about 30% of the games now played? Let's find out by taking a look at the Week 6 selections.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

The staff is certainly looking to continue their winning ways as we head into Week 6, and there are just 14 games on the docket with four teams (Buffalo, Chicago, Indianapolis and Oakland) on their bye week. Only three teams received more than 75% of the 19 possible picks this week from the staff, led by three home favorites in the Chargers (16 of 19 picks), Green Bay (16) and New England (15). The Saints (14) are both the top road team for the staff and also the top underdog, as New Orleans is getting 1.5 points as they take the trip to Jacksonville. Two more road teams come in next with 13 selections from the staff as both Atlanta (at Arizona) and Dallas (at the Jets) are favored to win away from home. Minnesota (12) and Seattle (12) are next, and the Seahawks are the only other majority underdog selection for the group for Week 6. Carolina (11) and Washington (10) round out the six road teams favored by the staff (Atlanta, Dallas, New Orleans and Seattle), but the Panthers are facing Tampa Bay in London, so both teams could be considered on the road this week. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how the games and the week plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

More than a quarter of the NFL season is already complete, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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