Against The Spread Pool: Week 4

Photo: Imagn Images

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

The third week of the season turned out to be the most challenging so far, as losses by the Seahawks (15 losses for the staff), New England (15), Arizona (15), Seattle (15), Tennessee (13), San Francisco (13), Buffalo (12) and the Falcons (12) severely hurt the overall group performance. The Rams (16) and Texans (15) helped the group, but overall it was a losing week for the staff at 138-166 (45.4% wins), lowering the season-long record to 454-490 (48.1%). The good news is that several staffers were above 50% on the week, led by Jason Woods' 11 of 16 correct picks to win the week. Dave Larkin and James Brimacombe were one pick behind at 10-6 for Week 3, with Andy Hicks and Matt Bitonti both finishing at 9-7.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Somehow we are already at the quarter-pole in the NFL season as we enter Week 4, and two teams (San Francisco and the New York Jets) are the first teams to have their bye week for this weekend. The top pick by the staff is a near-consensus pick (18 of 19 selections) for Kansas City to go to Detroit and win by at least a touchdown, which seems rather reasonable as the Lions are one of the weaker undefeated teams in the league. Two other home favorites are heavily favored by the staff, as most are on both Atlanta (16) and the New York Giants (15) to win and cover the spread. Seattle (14) is the top road team for the group as the Seahawks visit Arizona, and one more favorite (Houston, 14) joins Seattle in the staff's top five selections with the Texans hosting Carolina in Week 4. The staff is mostly on the favorites and home teams this week, as only five road teams (Chiefs, Seahawks, Jaguars [13], Minnesota [12] and Cincinnati [10]) and just six underdogs (Jaguars, Bills [13], Dolphins [12], Vikings, Saints [10] and Bengals) as majority picks for the staff. Four games are nearly evenly split with Baltimore (vs. Cleveland) and Indianapolis (vs. Oakland) both getting 11 of 19 votes and joining the Saints-Cowboys and Bengals-Steelers as very close calls. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how NFL Week 4 plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

Only three weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

Follow @JeffPasquino