The Championship round of the NFL playoffs went largely to script, with both favorites eventually making short work of their plucky opposition. Now we turn our attention to the big one as the eyes of the world focus on Miami Gardens, Florida for Super Bowl LIV. While the excitement levels surrounding this clash between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs haven’t quite reached a boiling point yet among the NFL cognoscenti, expect things to reach boiling point in the coming days.
Vegas has essentially shrugged for this match-up, perhaps lost in the mire of a Tom Brady-less game. Or, more likely, this is simply a duel between two evenly matched teams. The opening line came out with the Chiefs favored by 2.5 points; that quickly pivoted to Chiefs by 1.5 and it has now drifted even further to the San Francisco side. The public will bet boatloads of cash on this game, with novelty gamblers getting in on the action as well.
My advice entering this wild week is to focus on the yes/no or up/down bets on the game, rather than the needle in a haystack variety of bets that can sometimes fool people. Target over/unders on individual players, a yes or no prop bet on whether there will be a safety in the game and others; veer away from bets like ‘Who will catch the first pass?’ or things of that nature, bets that are typically -EV. If it hits, more power to you; if it doesn’t, it’s money down the drain.
Note that the over/unders and prop bets are sourced from VegasInsider.com
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers vs. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-1.5 to -1) (Over/Under 54)
(Sunday 6:30 pm Eastern, FOX)
A Super Bowl match-up that, like an onion, has many layers to peel back is a fitting coda to a memorable season. Could this finally be the moment Andy Reid breaks through and cements his legacy among the greatest head coaches of all time? Is the young and dynamic offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan on the verge of following in his father’s footsteps and securing his first Lombardi Trophy at the tender age of 40?
The most pressing question, however, may be beautiful in its simplicity: which quarterback will perform best on the big stage? The prevailing wisdom in the build-up has been that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, who has led his team back from double-digit deficits in back to back playoff games, is better equipped to handle the moment and is a more talented overall player who can overcome the deficiencies around him. It would be unwise to discount Jimmy Garoppolo, however, especially after a season that has featured games that asked him to rally his team in tough environments while playing within the confines of Shanahan’s timing-based offense. It is a fine balance that Garoppolo has maneuvered perfectly.
History beckons for the 49ers, who can equal the six Super Bowls of the Patriots and Steelers with a win in Miami. And history is in their favor on another point: the four previous Super Bowls played outdoors have seen the underdog cash in, including three outright wins. The margin is slim with this line, however, and we shouldn’t dig too deeply into these numbers, but it is food for thought. The trickiest assignment for the 49ers will be containing Mahomes, who has led the offense to 23 games scoring at least 30 points since he took over as the starter last season. Vegas thinks this could be a back and forth affair featuring high-flying offensive action (total of 54). Perhaps the only part of the Chiefs offense that has been lacking in the postseason has been their rushing attack. Game script has played a part in the lack of consistency with this element of the offense, but the 49ers have gone the opposite direction, smashing their two opponents up front and racking up rushing yards for fun. There is a clear edge for the 49ers here – 4.7 yards per carry gained while the Chiefs give up 4.8 yards per tote - and one that they will exploit.
The San Francisco passing attack will need to come to play against a Chiefs team that is likely to adopt an aggressive approach. Playing from behind will force Garoppolo, who has recorded 7.9 yards per pass (3rd in the league) despite ranking 31st in passes per game (28.1), to make consistently sound decisions. Interceptions have been a problem at times for the 49ers quarterback, who struggles to read intermediate coverage defenders and takes a few chances. He throws interceptions on 2.77% of passes, while Mahomes has the best number in the league in this statistic, throwing picks on just 0.77% of his passes. Garoppolo may have something of an armchair ride if the ground game can get established, however.
The coaching battle may be one of the most pivotal clashes that will play out on Sunday. Shanahan has called plays in five postseason games and he owns a 4-1 mark with his teams averaging 34 points per game. Reid, meanwhile, has a habit of working magic off a bye week; he is 18-3 off a bye in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs. Motion is a major part of these coaches’ offenses, with the 49ers running motion more than any other team. To put it bluntly, both defenses will need to be on their toes for reverses, screens, double passes and any number of other off-the-wall plays. With these coaches as the puppet masters, it’s advantage offenses.
Boiling it down, however, and the 49ers stand out as the more well-rounded team. The possibility of the Chiefs offense going nuclear and adding more fuel to the fire of the 'defense doesn't matter' movement is always there, but the 49ers defense is special and has the speed and talent to at least slow down Mahomes and company. The Chiefs defense doesn't strike fear into opponents and the 49ers should fancy their chances of establishing the run. An entertaining affair with a slight edge for the 49ers. San Francisco 35 Kansas City 31.
Key stats:
- Total thoughts: This is the first Super Bowl with a total of 54 points. In the four other Super Bowls with a total 54 or higher, the under-connected three times.
- Points but no prizes: Since Mahomes took over as starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have lost four road games despite scoring 32, 31, 51 and 40 points.
- Defense wins championships? San Francisco's defense, which ranked first in the playoffs and second in the regular season, as well as first in total pass defense, have allowed just 15 points per game in the postseason after surrendering just over 19 per game in the regular season.
Pick: San Francisco
SUPER BOWL LIV PLAYS
This week will include a mixture of best bets – the more traditional wagers such as over/unders and points spreads – and proposition bets, with a focus on the 50/50 shots rather than the needle in a haystack variety that, while entertaining, can quickly flop.
* BEST BETS *
- GAME / TOTAL POINTS DOUBLE (1.6-1 ODDS):
- SAN FRANCISCO TO WIN & UNDER 62.5 POINTS
- ANY TIME TOUCHDOWN / MATCH WINNER DOUBLE (1.625-1 ODDS):
- RAHEEM MOSTERT & SAN FRANCISCO TO WIN
** SUPER BOWL PROP BETS **
- WILL THE CHIEFS CONVERT ON FOURTH DOWN?
- YES – 4/5
- WILL THE GAME BE TIED AT ANY POINT AFTER FIRST SCORE?
- YES – 10/11
- TOTAL NUMBER OF PLAYERS TO HAVE A PASSING ATTEMPT:
- OVER 2.5 – 11/8
- QB TO THROW A TOUCHDOWN PASS FIRST:
- JIMMY GAROPPOLO – 11/10
*** SUPER BOWL MVP BETS ***
- JIMMY GAROPPOLO at +275
- GEORGE KITTLE at +1000
RESULTS
Last Week / Postseason / Regular Season
- LAST WEEK: 1-1
- POSTSEASON OVERALL: 3-7
- REGULAR SEASON OVERALL: 135-131 (52.7%)
- BEST BETS: 33-34 (49.1%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 45-45 (50%), last week 1-1
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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